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"Hersh, Eitan"
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Hacking the electorate : how campaigns perceive voters
\"This book is the most comprehensive study to date about the consequences of campaigns using \"microtargeting\" databases to mobilize voters in elections. In spite of the popular aura of campaigns using secretive and sophisticated techniques to engage with voters, the book shows that most of what campaigns know about voters comes from a core set of public records. States vary in the kinds of records they collect from voters. Sometimes, state legislators pass laws about data collection for the very purpose of using government-collected personal data for their campaigns. The variation in data across the country means that campaign databases look different in different areas. Consequently, campaigns vary how they engage with voters in different areas because of the data that permit them to perceive voters' interests. Variations in data policy thus affect the kinds of electoral coalitions that campaigns build\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims’ families and neighbors
This article investigates the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims’ families and neighbors. Relative to comparable individuals, family members and residential neighbors of victims have become—and have stayed—significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks. The method used to demonstrate these findings leverages the random nature of the terrorist attack to estimate a causal effect and exploits new techniques to link multiple, individual-level, governmental databases to measure behavioral change without relying on surveys or aggregate analysis.
Journal Article
Politics is for power : how to move beyond political hobbyism, take action, and make real change
\"Who is to blame for our broken politics? The uncomfortable answer to this question starts with ordinary citizens with good intentions. We vote (sometimes) and occasionally sign a petition or attend a rally. But we mainly \"engage\" by consuming politics as if it's a sport or a hobby. We soak in daily political gossip and eat up statistics about who's up and who's down. We tweet and post and share. We crave outrage. The hours we spend on politics are used mainly as pastime. Instead, we should be spending the same number of hours building political organizations, implementing a long-term vision for our city or town, and getting to know our neighbors, whose votes will be needed for solving hard problems. We could be accumulating power so that when there are opportunities to make a difference--to lobby, to advocate, to mobilize--we will be ready. But most of us who are spending time on politics today are focused inward, choosing roles and activities designed for our short-term pleasure. We are repelled by the slow-and-steady activities that characterize service to the common good. In Politics Is for Power, pioneering and brilliant data analyst Eitan Hersh shows us a way toward more effective political participation. Aided by political theory, history, cutting-edge social science, as well as remarkable stories of ordinary citizens who got off their couches and took political power seriously, this book shows us how to channel our energy away from political hobbyism and toward empowering our values\"--Amazon.
Book
Democratic and Republican physicians provide different care on politicized health issues
Physicians frequently interact with patients about politically salient health issues, such as drug use, firearm safety, and sexual behavior. We investigate whether physicians’ own political views affect their treatment decisions on these issues. We linked the records of over 20,000 primary care physicians in 29 US states to a voter registration database, obtaining the physicians’ political party affiliations. We then surveyed a sample of Democratic and Republican primary care physicians. Respondents evaluated nine patient vignettes, three of which addressed especially politicized health issues (marijuana, abortion, and firearm storage). Physicians rated the seriousness of the issue presented in each vignette and their likelihood of engaging in specific management options. On the politicized health issues—and only on such issues—Democratic and Republican physicians differed substantially in their expressed concern and their recommended treatment plan. We control for physician demographics (like age, gender, and religiosity), patient population, and geography. Physician partisan bias can lead to unwarranted variation in patient care. Awareness of how a physician’s political attitudes might affect patient care is important to physicians and patients alike.
Journal Article
The political consequences of opioid overdoses
The United States suffered a dramatic and well-documented increase in drug-related deaths from 2000 to 2018, primarily driven by prescription and non-prescription opioids, and concentrated in white and working-class areas. A growing body of research focuses on the causes, both medical and social, of this opioid crisis, but little work as yet on its larger ramifications. Using novel public records of accidental opioid deaths linked to behavioral political outcomes, we present causal analyses showing that opioid overdoses have significant political ramifications. Those close to opioid victims vote at lower rates than those less affected by the crisis, even compared to demographically-similar friends and family of other unexpected deaths. Moreover, among those friends and family affected by opioids, Republicans are 25% more likely to defect from the party than the statewide average Republican, while Democrats are no more likely to defect; Independents are moderately more likely to register as Democrats. These results illustrate an important research design for inferring the effects of tragic events and speak to the broad social and political consequences of what is becoming the largest public health crisis in modern United States history.
Journal Article
Mixed partisan households and electoral participation in the United States
Research suggests that partisans are increasingly avoiding members of the other party-in their choice of neighborhood, social network, even their spouse. Leveraging a national database of voter registration records, we analyze 18 million households in the U.S. We find that three in ten married couples have mismatched party affiliations. We observe the relationship between inter-party marriage and gender, age, and geography. We discuss how the findings bear on key questions of political behavior in the US. Then, we test whether mixed-partisan couples participate less actively in politics. We find that voter turnout is correlated with the party of one's spouse. A partisan who is married to a co-partisan is more likely to vote. This phenomenon is especially pronounced for partisans in closed primaries, elections in which non-partisan registered spouses are ineligible to participate.
Journal Article
Public perceptions of local influence
Who do people think are influential in their own community? This question is important for understanding topics such as social networks, political party networks, civic engagement, and local politics. At the same time as research on these topics has grown, measurement of public perceptions of local influence has dried up. Years ago, researchers took active interest in the question of community influence. They found that most ordinary Americans could identify a person who they thought had influence in their community. Respondents usually named business leaders. Where does the public stand today? In three different ways, we ask respondents who has local influence. The vast majority of respondents today cannot think of anyone. Those who do identify someone as influential rarely choose a businessperson. This article aims to reintroduce the public opinion of community influence and situate findings in related scholarship.
Journal Article
Party Activists as Campaign Advertisers: The Ground Campaign as a Principal-Agent Problem
As a key element of their strategy, recent Presidential campaigns have recruited thousands of workers to engage in direct voter contact. We conceive of this strategy as a principal-agent problem. Workers engaged in direct contact are intermediaries between candidates and voters, but they may be ill-suited to convey messages to general-election audiences. By analyzing a survey of workers fielded in partnership with the 2012 Obama campaign, we show that in the context of the campaign widely considered most adept at direct contact, individuals who were interacting with swing voters on the campaign’s behalf were demographically unrepresentative, ideologically extreme, cared about atypical issues, and misunderstood the voters’ priorities. We find little evidence that the campaign was able to use strategies of agent control to mitigate its principal-agent problem. We question whether individuals typically willing to be volunteer surrogates are productive agents for a strategic campaign.
Journal Article
Targeted Campaign Appeals and the Value of Ambiguity
Political campaigns increasingly micro-target. Given detailed knowledge of voters’ identities, campaigns try to persuade voters by pandering to these identities. Through multiple survey experiments, we examine the persuasiveness of group-directed pandering. We ask: Do group members respond more favorably to appeals geared to them, or do they prefer broad-based appeals? Do voters not in a group penalize candidates who appeal to a group? Answers to these questions help us grapple with the evolving relationship between voters and candidates in a rapidly changing information environment. Our results suggest that voters rarely prefer targeted pandering to general messages and that “mistargeted” voters penalize candidates enough to erase the positive returns to targeting. Theoretically, targeting may allow candidates to quietly promise particularistic benefits to narrow audiences, thereby altering the nature of political representation, but voters seem to prefer being solicited based on broad principles and collective benefits.
Journal Article
ADGN: An Algorithm for Record Linkage Using Address, Date of Birth, Gender, and Name
This article presents an algorithm for record linkage that uses multiple indicators derived from combinations of fields commonly found in databases. Specifically, the quadruplet of Address (A), Date of Birth (D), Gender (G), and Name (N) and any triplet of A-D-G-N (i.e., ADG, ADN, AGN, and DGN) also link records with an extremely high likelihood. Matching on multiple identifiers avoids problems of missing data, inconsistent fields, and typographical errors. We show, using a very large database from the State of Texas, that exact matches using combinations A, D, G, and N produce a rate of matches comparable to 9-Digit Social Security Number. Further examination of the linkage rates show that reporting of the data at a higher level of aggregation, such as Birth Year instead of Date of Birth and omission of names, makes correct matches between databases highly unlikely, protecting an individual’s records.
Journal Article