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Advancement of AI has opened new possibility for accurate diagnosis and prognosis using digital histopathology slides which not only saves hours of expert effort but also makes the estimation more standardized and accurate. However, preserving the AI model performance on the external sites is an extremely challenging problem in the histopathology domain which is primarily due to the difference in data acquisition and/or sampling bias. Although, AI models can also learn spurious correlation, they provide unequal performance across validation population. While it is crucial to detect and remove the bias from the AI model before the clinical application, the cause of the bias is often unknown . We proposed a Causal Survival model that can reduce the effect of unknown bias by leveraging the causal reasoning framework. We use the model to predict recurrence-free survival for the colorectal cancer patients using quantitative histopathology features from seven geographically distributed sites and achieve equalized performance compared to the baseline traditional Cox Proportional Hazards and DeepSurvival model. Through ablation study, we demonstrated benefit of novel addition of latent probability adjustment and auxiliary losses. Although detection of cause of unknown bias is unsolved, we proposed a causal debiasing solution to reduce the bias and improve the AI model generalizibility on the histopathology domain across sites. Open-source codebase for the model training can be accessed from https://github.com/ramon349/fair_survival.git

Mutations in PIK3CA are present in 10 to 15% of colorectal carcinomas. We aimed to examine how PIK3CA mutations relate to other molecular alterations in colorectal carcinoma, to pathologic phenotype and survival. PIK3CA mutation testing was carried out using direct sequencing on 757 incident tumors from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. The status of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) was assessed using both immunohistochemistry and methyLight techniques. Microsatellite instability, CpG island phenotype (CIMP), KRAS and BRAF V600E mutation status, and pathology review features were derived from previous reports. PIK3CA mutation was observed in 105 of 757 (14%) of carcinomas, characterized by location in the proximal colon (54% vs. 34%; P<0.001) and an increased frequency of KRAS mutation (48% vs. 25%; P<0.001). High-levels of CIMP were more frequently found in PIK3CA-mutated tumors compared with PIK3CA wild-type tumors (22% vs. 11%; P = 0.004). There was no difference in the prevalence of BRAF V600E mutation between these two tumor groups. PIK3CA-mutated tumors were associated with loss of MGMT expression (35% vs. 20%; P = 0.001) and the presence of tumor mucinous differentiation (54% vs. 32%; P<0.001). In patients with wild-type BRAF tumors, PIK3CA mutation was associated with poor survival (HR 1.51 95% CI 1.04-2.19, P = 0.03). In summary, PIK3CA-mutated colorectal carcinomas are more likely to develop in the proximal colon, to demonstrate high levels of CIMP, KRAS mutation and loss of MGMT expression. PIK3CA mutation also contributes to significantly decreased survival for patients with wild-type BRAF tumors.

Background Identifying risk factors for metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous advanced neoplasia could be useful for guiding surveillance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia. Methods Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials for articles (searching period: 1945 to Feburary, 2021) that reported the results of an association between any factor and metachronous advanced neoplasia or metachronous CRC. There were no restrictions on the publication date or language. Random effects models were fitted to estimate the combined association between the risk factors and metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. The Risk of Bias In Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions tool (ROBINS-I) was used to assess the risk of bias of included studies. Results In total, 22 observational studies with 625,208 participants were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of these, 13 studies investigated risk factors for metachronous CRC and 9 for advanced neoplasia. The risks of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia were higher if the first CRC was diagnosed in the presence of a synchronous advanced lesion (pooled risk ratio (RR) from 3 studies: 3.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44–9.05; and pooled RR from 8 studies: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.23–3.43, respectively). The risk of metachronous CRC was lower, but the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was higher if the first CRC was distal (compared with proximal) (pooled RR from 3 studies: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.23–0.98; and pooled RR from 2 studies: 2.99, 95% CI: 1.60–5.58 respectively). The risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia increased with age (pooled RR from 3 studies: 1.07 per year of age, 95% CI: 1.03–1.11). There was no evidence that any lifestyle risk factors studied were associated with the risk of metachronous CRC or advanced neoplasia. Conclusions The identified risk factors for metachronous CRC and advanced neoplasia might be useful to tailor the existing surveillance guidelines after the first CRC. There were potential limitations due to possible misclassification of the outcome, confounding and risk of bias, and the findings cannot be generalised to high-risk genetic syndrome cases.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified tens of thousands of genetic variants associated with various phenotypes, but together they explain only a fraction of heritability, suggesting many variants have yet to be discovered. Recently it has been recognized that incorporating functional information of genetic variants can improve power for identifying novel loci. For example, S-PrediXcan and TWAS tested the association of predicted gene expression with phenotypes based on GWAS summary statistics by leveraging the information on genetic regulation of gene expression and found many novel loci. However, as genetic variants may have effects on more than one gene and through different mechanisms, these methods likely only capture part of the total effects of these variants. In this paper, we propose a summary statistics-based mixed effects score test (sMiST) that tests for the total effect of both the effect of the mediator by imputing genetically predicted gene expression, like S-PrediXcan and TWAS, and the direct effects of individual variants. It allows for multiple functional annotations and multiple genetically predicted mediators. It can also perform conditional association analysis while adjusting for other genetic variants (e.g., known loci for the phenotype). Extensive simulation and real data analyses demonstrate that sMiST yields p-values that agree well with those obtained from individual level data but with substantively improved computational speed. Importantly, a broad application of sMiST to GWAS is possible, as only summary statistics of genetic variant associations are required. We apply sMiST to a large-scale GWAS of colorectal cancer using summary statistics from ∼120, 000 study participants and gene expression data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project. We identify several novel and secondary independent genetic loci.

Background Colorectal cancer screening reduces colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality. Identifying the factors associated with screening participation is needed to overcome barriers to screening. While several of those factors have been identified, the impact of mental and physical health on screening behaviour is not well understood. Methods This retrospective cohort study compared the self-reported mental and physical health of those who did screen for colorectal cancer and those who did not. Participants of the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry Cohort that were aged 45-75 years and had never been diagnosed with colorectal cancer were asked to complete a questionnaire detailing their colorectal cancer screening participation in the preceding 5 years, and a validated questionnaire of mental and physical health. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for measured potential confounders. Results Of the 1130 eligible participants, 781 had a family history of colorectal cancer (69.5%), and 819 reported colorectal cancer screening in the past 5 years (72%). After adjusting for potential confounders, there was no evidence that overall mental or physical health was associated with colorectal cancer screening. However, those reporting higher levels of general health were more likely to participate in colorectal cancer screening (OR = 1.02 (100 point scale), 95% CI 1.004, 1.037, P = .014). Conclusion We found limited evidence that mental and physical health were associated with colorectal cancer screening. The high proportion of participants with a family history of colorectal cancer limits the generaliseability of the findings to the general population, although we observed no differences in findings by strength of family history.

Background Germ-line mutations in the exonuclease domains of the POLE and POLD1 genes are associated with an increased, but yet unquantified, risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods We identified families with POLE or POLD1 variants by searching PubMed for relevant studies prior to October 2016 and by genotyping 669 population-based CRC cases diagnosed in patients under 60 years of age, from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. We estimated the age-specific cumulative risks (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. Results We observed 67 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis = 50.2 (SD = 13.8) years) among 364 first- and second- degree relatives from 41 POLE families, and 6 CRCs (mean age at diagnosis = 39.7 (SD = 6.83) years) among 69 relatives from 9 POLD1 families. We estimated risks of CRC up to the age of 70 years (95% confidence interval) for males and females, respectively, to be 40% (26–57%) and 32% (20–47%) for POLE mutation carriers and 63% (15–99%) and 52% (11–99%) for POLD1 mutation carriers. Conclusion CRC risks for POLE mutation carriers are sufficiently high to warrant consideration of annual colonoscopy screening and implementation of management guidelines comparable to those applied in cases of Lynch syndrome. Refinement of estimates of CRC risk for POLD1 carriers is needed; however, clinical management recommendations could follow those made for POLE carriers.

Background We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction tool (‘CRISP’) to provide individualised risk-based advice for colorectal cancer screening. Using known environmental, behavioural, and familial risk factors, CRISP was designed to facilitate tailored screening advice to patients aged 50 to 74 years in general practice. In parallel to a randomised controlled trial of the CRISP tool, we developed and evaluated an evidence-based implementation strategy. Methods Qualitative methods were used to explore the implementation of CRISP in general practice. Using one general practice in regional Victoria, Australia, as a ‘laboratory’, we tested ways to embed CRISP into routine clinical practice. General practitioners, nurses, and operations manager co-designed the implementation methods with researchers, focussing on existing practice processes that would be sustainable. Researchers interviewed the staff regularly to assess the successfulness of the strategies employed, and implementation methods were adapted throughout the study period in response to feedback from qualitative interviews. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) underpinned the development of the interview guide and intervention strategy. Coding was inductive and themes were developed through consensus between the authors. Emerging themes were mapped onto the CFIR domains and a fidelity checklist was developed to ensure CRISP was being used as intended. Results Between December 2016 and September 2019, 1 interviews were conducted, both face-to-face and via videoconferencing (Zoom). All interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded. Themes were mapped onto the following CFIR domains: (1) ‘characteristics of the intervention’: CRISP was valued but time consuming; (2) ‘inner setting’: the practice was open to changing systems; 3. ‘outer setting’: CRISP helped facilitate screening; (4) ‘individual characteristics’: the practice staff were adaptable and able to facilitate adoption of new clinical processes; and (5) ‘processes’: fidelity checking, and education was important. Conclusions These results describe a novel method for exploring implementation strategies for a colorectal cancer risk prediction tool in the context of a parallel RCT testing clinical efficacy. The study identified successful and unsuccessful implementation strategies using an adaptive methodology over time. This method emphasised the importance of co-design input to make an intervention like CRISP sustainable for use in other practices and with other risk tools.

The roles of sex hormones such as estradiol, testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in the etiology of lung and colorectal cancers in women, among the most common cancers after breast cancer, are unclear. This Mendelian randomization (MR) study evaluated such potential causal associations in women of European ancestry. We used summary statistics data from genome-wide association studies on sex hormones and from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) and large consortia on cancers. There was suggestive evidence of 1-standard deviation increase in total testosterone levels being associated with a lower risk of lung non-adenocarcinoma (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.37–0.98) in the HUNT Study. However, this was not confirmed by using data from a larger consortium. In general, we did not find convincing evidence to support a causal role of sex hormones on risk of lung and colorectal cancers in women of European ancestry.

Background Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology. Methods We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40–70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method. Results The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other ( r  = 0.22–0.81; all P  < 0.005). We estimated that 28–92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively). Conclusions In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways.

The role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear as most studies on the topic are unable to discern correlation from causation. We apply two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationship between the gut microbiome and CRC. We used summary-level data from independent genome-wide association studies to estimate the causal effect of 14 microbial traits (n = 3890 individuals) on overall CRC (55,168 cases, 65,160 controls) and site-specific CRC risk, conducting several sensitivity analyses to understand the nature of results. Initial MR analysis suggested that a higher abundance of Bifidobacterium and presence of an unclassified group of bacteria within the Bacteroidales order in the gut increased overall and site-specific CRC risk. However, sensitivity analyses suggested that instruments used to estimate relationships were likely complex and involved in many potential horizontal pleiotropic pathways, demonstrating that caution is needed when interpreting MR analyses with gut microbiome exposures. In assessing reverse causality, we did not find strong evidence that CRC causally affected these microbial traits. Whilst our study initially identified potential causal roles for two microbial traits in CRC, importantly, further exploration of these relationships highlighted that these were unlikely to reflect causality.