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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission, such as in prisons. Here we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31–42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to a 28% (25–31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case’s risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6–36%), 23% (3–39%) and 40% (20–55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that, although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection. This study underscores benefit of vaccination to reduce, but not eliminate, transmission. Analysis of data from California prisons shows that both COVID-19 vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection reduces the risk of virus transmission to close contacts.

Racial and ethnic minoritized groups and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities experience longstanding health-related disparities in the United States and were disproportionately affected throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. How departments of public health can explicitly address these disparities and their underlying determinants remains less understood. To inform future public health responses, this paper details how California strategically placed health equity at the core of its COVID-19 reopening and response policy, known as the Blueprint for a Safer Economy . In effect from August 2020 to June 2021, “the Blueprint” employed the use of the California Healthy Places Index (HPI), a place-based summary measure of 25 determinants of health constructed at the census tract level, to guide activities. Using California’s approach, we categorized the state population by HPI quartiles at the state and within-county levels (HPIQ1 representing the least advantaged, HPIQ4, the most advantaged) from HPI data available to demonstrate how the state monitored crude COVID-19 test, case, mortality, and vaccine rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RR) using equity metrics developed for the Blueprint. Notable patterns emerged. Testing disparities disappeared during the summer and winter surges but resurfaced between surges. Monthly case RR peaked in May 2020 for HPIQ1 compared to HPIQ4 (RR 6.61, 95%CI: 6.41–6.81), followed by mortality RR peaking in June 2020 (RR 5.06, 95% CI: 4.34–5.91). As the pandemic wore on, disparities in unadjusted case and mortality RRs between lower HPI quartiles relative to HPIQ4 reduced but remained. Utilizing a place-based index, such as HPI, enabled a data-driven approach that used a determinants of health lens to identify priority communities, allocate resources, and monitor outcomes based on need during a large-scale public health emergency.

The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a stochastic point process coupled to a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for depletion of susceptible individuals. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in the number of susceptible residents, the reproduction number, and/or the proportion of symptomatic infections. This permits a range of assumptions about the density dependence of transmission and modes of protection by vaccination, depopulation and other types of control. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on the expected number of cases. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 with density-dependent transmission, we find that preemptively reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. In some circumstances, it may be possible to reduce the risk and burden of disease outbreaks by optimizing the way a group of residents are apportioned into distinct residential units. The optimal apportionment may be different depending on whether the goal is to reduce the probability of an outbreak occurring, or the expected number of cases from outbreak dynamics. In other circumstances there may be an opportunity to implement reactive disease control measures in which the number of susceptible individuals is rapidly reduced once an outbreak has been detected to occur. Reactive control is most effective when the reproduction number is not too high, and there is minimal delay in implementing control. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for understanding disease transmission in congregate settings. Our approach and accompanying interactive website ( https://phoebelu.shinyapps.io/DepopulationModels/ ) provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the potential impact of policy decisions governing infection control in outbreak settings.

Early investigation revealed a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among social contacts of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals, referred to as indirect protection. However, indirect protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection-acquired immunity and its comparative strength and durability to vaccine-derived indirect protection in the current epidemiologic context of high levels of vaccination, prior infection, and novel variants are not well characterized. Here, we show that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity independently yield indirect protection to close social contacts with key differences in their strength and waning. Analyzing anonymized SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from 9,625 residents in California state prisons from December 2021 to December 2022, we find that vaccine-derived indirect protection against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection is strongest within three months of COVID-19 vaccination [30% (95% confidence interval: 20–38%)] with subsequent modest protection. Infection-acquired immunity provides 38% (24–50%) indirect protection for 6 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, with moderate indirect protection persisting for over one year. Variant-targeted vaccines (bivalent formulation including Omicron subvariants BA.4/BA.5) confer strong indirect protection for at least three months [40% (3–63%)]. These results demonstrate that both vaccine-derived and infection-acquired immunity can reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission which is important for understanding long-term transmission dynamics and can guide public health intervention, especially in high-risk environments such as prisons. Vaccines and infection-acquired immunity reduce infection risk to close contacts through ‘indirect protection’. Here, the authors characterise the strength and durability of vaccine- and infection-acquired indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 using surveillance data from residents of state prisons in California.

India has the highest burden of tuberculosis (TB). Although most patients with TB in India seek care from the private sector, there is limited evidence on quality of TB care or its correlates. Following our validation study on the standardized patient (SP) method for TB, we utilized SPs to examine quality of adult TB care among health providers with different qualifications in 2 Indian cities. During 2014-2017, pilot programs engaged the private health sector to improve TB management in Mumbai and Patna. Nested within these projects, to obtain representative, baseline measures of quality of TB care at the city level, we recruited 24 adults to be SPs. They were trained to portray 4 TB \"case scenarios\" representing various stages of disease and diagnostic progression. Between November 2014 and August 2015, the SPs visited representatively sampled private providers stratified by qualification: (1) allopathic providers with Bachelor of Medicine, Bachelor of Surgery (MBBS) degrees or higher and (2) non-MBBS providers with alternative medicine, minimal, or no qualifications. Our main outcome was case-specific correct management benchmarked against the Standards for TB Care in India (STCI). Using ANOVA, we assessed variation in correct management and quality outcomes across (a) cities, (b) qualifications, and (c) case scenarios. Additionally, 2 micro-experiments identified sources of variation: first, quality in the presence of diagnostic test results certainty and second, provider consistency for different patients presenting the same case. A total of 2,652 SP-provider interactions across 1,203 health facilities were analyzed. Based on our sampling strategy and after removing 50 micro-experiment interactions, 2,602 interactions were weighted for city-representative interpretation. After weighting, the 473 Patna providers receiving SPs represent 3,179 eligible providers in Patna; in Mumbai, the 730 providers represent 7,115 eligible providers. Correct management was observed in 959 out of 2,602 interactions (37%; 35% weighted; 95% CI 32%-37%), primarily from referrals and ordering chest X-rays (CXRs). Unnecessary medicines were given to nearly all SPs, and antibiotic use was common. Anti-TB drugs were prescribed in 118 interactions (4.5%; 5% weighted), of which 45 were given in the case in which such treatment is considered correct management. MBBS and more qualified providers had higher odds of correctly managing cases than non-MBBS providers (odds ratio [OR] 2.80; 95% CI 2.05-3.82; p < 0.0001). Mumbai non-MBBS providers had higher odds of correct management than non-MBBS in Patna (OR 1.79; 95% CI 1.06-3.03), and MBBS providers' quality of care did not vary between cities (OR 1.15; 95% CI 0.79-1.68; p = 0.4642). In the micro-experiments, improving diagnostic certainty had a positive effect on correct management but not across all quality dimensions. Also, providers delivered idiosyncratically consistent care, repeating all observed actions, including mistakes, approximately 75% of the time. The SP method has limitations: it cannot account for patient mix or care-management practices reflecting more than one patient-provider interaction. Quality of TB care is suboptimal and variable in urban India's private health sector. Addressing this is critical for India's plans to end TB by 2025. For the first time, we have rich measures on representative levels of care quality from 2 cities, which can inform private-sector TB interventions and quality-improvement efforts.

Existing studies of the quality of tuberculosis care have relied on recall-based patient surveys, questionnaire surveys of knowledge, and prescription or medical record analysis, and the results mostly show the health-care provider's knowledge rather than actual practice. No study has used standardised patients to assess clinical practice. Therefore we aimed to assess quality of care for tuberculosis using such patients. We did a pilot, cross-sectional validation study of a convenience sample of consenting private health-care providers in low-income and middle-income areas of Delhi, India. We recruited standardised patients in apparently good health from the local community to present four cases (two of presumed tuberculosis and one each of confirmed tuberculosis and suspected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis) to a randomly allocated health-care provider. The key objective was to validate the standardised-patient method using three criteria: negligible risk and ability to avoid adverse events for providers and standardised patients, low detection rates of standardised patients by providers, and data accuracy across standardised patients and audio verification of standardised-patient recall. We also used medical vignettes to assess providers' knowledge of presumed tuberculosis. Correct case management was benchmarked using Standards for Tuberculosis Care in India (STCI). Between Feb 2, and March 28, 2014, we recruited and trained 17 standardised patients who had 250 interactions with 100 health-care providers, 29 of whom were qualified in allopathic medicine (ie, they had a Bachelor of Medicine & Surgery [MBBS] degree), 40 of whom practised alternative medicine, and 31 of whom were informal health-care providers with few or no qualifications. The interactions took place between April 1, and April 23, 2014. The proportion of detected standardised patients was low (11 [5%] detected out of 232 interactions among providers who completed the follow-up survey), and standardised patients' recall correlated highly with audio recordings (r=0·63 [95% CI 0·53–0·79]), with no safety concerns reported. The mean consultation length was 6 min (95% CI 5·5–6·6) with a mean of 6·18 (5·72–6·64) questions or examinations completed, representing 35% (33–38) of essential checklist items. Across all cases, only 52 (21% [16–26]) of 250 were correctly managed. Correct management was higher among MBBS-qualified doctors than other types of health-care provider (adjusted odds ratio 2·41 [95% CI 1·17–4·93]; p=0·0166). Of the 69 providers who completed the vignette, knowledge in the vignettes was more consistent with STCI than their actual clinical practice—eg, 50 (73%) ordered a chest radiograph or sputum test during the vignette compared with seven (10%) during the standardised-patient interaction; OR 0·04 (95% CI 0·02–0·11); p<0·0001. Standardised patients can be successfully implemented to assess tuberculosis care. Our data suggest a big gap between private provider knowledge and practice. Additional work is needed to substantiate our pilot data, understand the know-do gap in provider behaviour, and to identify the best approach to measure and improve the quality of tuberculosis care in India. Grand Challenges Canada, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Knowledge for Change Program, and the World Bank Development Research Group.

Residents of carceral facilities are exposed to poor ventilation conditions which leads to the spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19. Indoor ventilation conditions are rarely studied within carceral settings and there remains limited capacity to develop solutions to address the impact of poor ventilation on the health of people who are incarcerated. In this study, we empirically measured ventilation rates within housing units of six adult prisons in the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) and compare the measured ventilation rates to recommended standards issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). Findings from the empirical assessment include lower ventilation rates than the recommended ventilation standards with particularly low ventilation during winter months when heating systems were in use. Inadvertent airflows from spaces housing potentially infected individuals to shared common spaces was also observed. The methodology used for this work can be leveraged for routine ventilation monitoring, pandemic preparedness, and disaster response.

IntroductionDetermining whether antibiotic prescriptions are inappropriate requires knowledge of patients’ underlying conditions. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where misdiagnoses are frequent, this is challenging. Additionally, such details are often unavailable for prescription audits. Recent studies using standardised patients (SPs) offer a unique opportunity to generate unbiased prevalence estimates of antibiotic overuse, as the research design involves patients with predefined conditions.MethodsSecondary analyses of data from nine SP studies were performed to estimate the proportion of SP–provider interactions resulting in inappropriate antibiotic prescribing across primary care settings in three LMICs (China, India and Kenya). In all studies, SPs portrayed conditions for which antibiotics are unnecessary (watery diarrhoea, presumptive tuberculosis (TB), angina and asthma). We conducted descriptive analyses reporting overall prevalence of antibiotic overprescribing by healthcare sector, location, provider qualification and case. The WHO Access–Watch–Reserve framework was used to categorise antibiotics based on their potential for selecting resistance. As richer data were available from India, we examined factors associated with antibiotic overuse in that country through hierarchical Poisson models.ResultsAcross health facilities, antibiotics were given inappropriately in 2392/4798 (49.9%, 95% CI 40.8% to 54.5%) interactions in India, 83/166 (50.0%, 95% CI 42.2% to 57.8%) in Kenya and 259/899 (28.8%, 95% CI 17.8% to 50.8%) in China. Prevalence ratios of antibiotic overuse in India were significantly lower in urban versus rural areas (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.96) and higher for qualified versus non-qualified providers (aPR 1.55, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.70), and for presumptive TB cases versus other conditions (aPR 1.19, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.33). Access antibiotics were predominantly used in Kenya (85%), but Watch antibiotics (mainly quinolones and cephalosporins) were highly prescribed in India (47.6%) and China (32.9%).ConclusionGood-quality SP data indicate alarmingly high levels of antibiotic overprescription for key conditions across primary care settings in India, China and Kenya, with broad-spectrum agents being excessively used in India and China.

Background People incarcerated in US prisons have been disproportionately harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. That prisons are such efficient superspreading environments can be attributed to several known factors: small, communal facilities where people are confined for prolonged periods of time; poor ventilation; a lack of non-punitive areas for quarantine/medical isolation; and staggeringly high numbers of people experiencing incarceration, among others. While health organizations have issued guidance on preventing and mitigating COVID-19 infection in carceral settings, little is known about if, when, and how recommendations have been implemented. We examined factors contributing to containment of one of the first California prison COVID-19 outbreaks and remaining vulnerabilities using an adapted multi-level determinants framework to systematically assess infectious disease risk in carceral settings. Methods Case study employing administrative data; observation; and informal discussions with: people incarcerated at the prison, staff, and county public health officials. Results Outbreak mitigation efforts were characterized by pre-planning (e.g., designation of ventilated, single-occupancy quarantine) and a quickly mobilized inter-institutional response that facilitated systematic, voluntary rapid testing. However, several systemic- and institutional-level vulnerabilities were unaddressed hindering efforts and posing significant risk for future outbreaks, including insufficient decarceration, continued inter-facility transfers, incomplete staff cohorting, and incompatibility between built environment features (e.g., dense living conditions) and public health recommendations. Conclusions Our adapted framework facilitates systematically assessing prison-based infectious disease outbreaks and multi-level interventions. We find implementing some recommended public health strategies may have contributed to outbreak containment. However, even with a rapidly mobilized, inter-institutional response, failure to decarcerate created an overreliance on chance conditions. This left the facility vulnerable to future catastrophic outbreaks and may render standard public health strategies - including the introduction of effective vaccines - insufficient to prevent or contain those outbreaks.

India's total antibiotic use is the highest of any country. Patients often receive prescription-only drugs directly from pharmacies. Here we aimed to assess the medical advice and drug dispensing practices of pharmacies for standardised patients with presumed and confirmed tuberculosis in India. In this cross-sectional study in the three Indian cities Delhi, Mumbai, and Patna, we developed two standardised patient cases: first, a patient presenting with 2–3 weeks of pulmonary tuberculosis symptoms (Case 1); and second, a patient with microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (Case 2). Standardised patients were scheduled to present each case once to sampled pharmacies. We defined ideal management for both cases a priori as referral to a health-care provider without dispensing antibiotics or steroids or both. Between April 1, 2014, and Nov 29, 2015, we sampled 622 pharmacies in Delhi, Mumbai, and Patna. Standardised patients completed 1200 (96%) of 1244 interactions. We recorded ideal management (defined as referrals without the use of antibiotics or steroids) in 80 (13%) of 599 Case 1 interactions (95% CI 11–16) and 372 (62%) of 601 Case 2 interactions (95% CI 58–66). Antibiotic use was significantly lower in Case 2 interactions (98 [16%] of 601, 95% CI 13–19) than in Case 1 (221 [37%] of 599, 95% CI 33–41). First-line anti-tuberculosis drugs were not dispensed in any city. The differences in antibiotic or steroid use and number of medicines dispensed between Case 1 and Case 2 were almost entirely attributable to the difference in referral behaviour. Only some urban Indian pharmacies correctly managed patients with presumed tuberculosis, but most correctly managed a case of confirmed tuberculosis. No pharmacy dispensed anti-tuberculosis drugs for either case. Absence of a confirmed diagnosis is a key driver of antibiotic misuse and could inform antimicrobial stewardship interventions. Grand Challenges Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Knowledge for Change Program, and World Bank Development Research Group.