Explore the vast range of titles available.

Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

BackgroundOne in four French adults smoked daily in 2021, compared with one in six in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. To strengthen its tobacco control policy, in 2016, France has started implementing a policy package that includes a 3-year gradual price increase, plain packaging, an annual social marketing campaign promoting cessation and the reimbursement of nicotine replacement products. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impact of this policy package.MethodsThe long-term policy impact on disease cases, healthcare expenditure and gains in labour participation and productivity was evaluated by using the OECD microsimulation model for Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases. The model was fed with historical and projected trends on tobacco smoking prevalence as produced by the policy package.ResultsOver the period 2023–2050, the policy package is estimated to avoid about 4.03 million (2.09–11.84 million) cases of chronic diseases, save €578 million (365–1848 million) per year in health expenditure and increase employment and workforce productivity by the equivalent to 19 800 (9100–59 900) additional full-time workers per year, compared with a scenario in which the intervention package is not implemented. The intervention cost is estimated at about €148 million per year. For each euro invested in the policy package, €4 will be returned in long-term savings in healthcare expenditure.ConclusionsThe tobacco control policy package implemented by France, targeting smoking initiation and promoting tobacco cessation is an effective intervention with an excellent return on investment.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes have spread at a remarkable pace in European countries over the past decades. Overweight/obesity and alcohol use are two leading risk factors contributing to both economic and epidemiological burden associated with NCDs. In OECD countries, the impact of indirect costs of obesity varies between 0.20% and 1.21% of GDP. Indirect costs of alcohol use range from 0.19% (Portugal) to 1.6% (Estonia) of GDP. To assess the longitudinal impact of alcohol use and high body-mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes in the European region by modeling the direct effect of high BMI and alcohol use, and the effect via associated diseases. The impact of BMI, alcohol use, and associated diseases on employment likelihood, intent to retire early, days of absenteeism, and hours of work per week, were modelled via lagged Poisson and Zero-inflated Poisson regressions, adjusting for missingness via inverse probability weighting, as appropriate, using European SHARE data. Controlling for other chronic conditions, being overweight increases employment likelihood among men, but not among women. Obesity decreased female, but not male, employment chances. All chronic conditions linked with high BMI negatively affected employment likelihood, and increased the intention to retire early significantly. Alcohol use positively affects employment likelihood in women at all drinking levels relative to lifetime abstainers, but only in moderate (not heavy) male drinkers. There is super-additionality of impact of NCDs on absenteeism and hours worked, presenting a key economic argument to tackle NCD prevention and compression of morbidity. NCD prevention is not just important for employment and hours worked, but also for employee morale, especially given increasing retirement age in Europe and globally.

Cancer is a major public health issue. In response, policy‐makers have implemented a range of preventative interventions targeting key risk factors. Using OECD's Strategic Public Health Planning for Noncommunicable Diseases model, this article examines the health and economic impact of six primary prevention interventions targeting cancer. Findings can assist decision‐makers efficiently allocate resources to meet public health objectives. Cancer is a noncommunicable disease (NCD) with increasing incidence and therefore constitutes a major public health issue. To reduce the health and economic burden of cancer, policy‐makers across the world have implemented a range of preventative interventions targeting risk factors with a known link to the disease. In this article, we examine the impact of six primary prevention interventions – related to physical inactivity, unhealthy diet or harmful alcohol use – on cancer‐related health outcomes and healthcare expenditure. Here, we used the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for NCDs (SPHeP‐NCDs) model to quantify outcomes and costs for each intervention for years 2020–2050 across 37 countries. Results from the model indicate that all interventions could lead to a reduction in the number of new cancer cases, in particular those targeting harmful alcohol consumption. Introducing an alcohol tax, for instance, is estimated to reduce related cancer cases by 5619 a year or 174 193 by 2050. A breakdown of results by type of cancer revealed interventions had the largest impact on colorectal cancer with, on average, 41 140 cases avoided per intervention by 2050. In proportional terms, interventions had the greatest impact on new oesophageal and liver cancers. Findings from this article are designed to assist decision‐makers efficiently allocate limited resources to meet public health objectives.

The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.

Liver diseases have become a major health threat across Europe, and the face of European hepatology is changing due to the cure of viral hepatitis C and the control of chronic viral hepatitis B, the increasingly widespread unhealthy use of alcohol, the epidemic of obesity, and undiagnosed or untreated liver disease in migrant populations. Consequently, Europe is facing a looming syndemic, in which socioeconomic and health inequities combine to adversely affect liver disease prevalence, outcomes, and opportunities to receive care. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified pre-existing challenges to uniform implementation of policies and equity of access to care in Europe, arising from national borders and the cultural and historical heterogeneity of European societies. In following up on work from the Lancet Commission on liver disease in the UK and epidemiological studies led by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), our multidisciplinary Commission, comprising a wide range of public health, medical, and nursing specialty groups, along with patient representatives, set out to provide a snapshot of the European landscape on liver diseases and to propose a framework for the principal actions required to improve liver health in Europe. We believe that a joint European process of thinking, and construction of uniform policies and action, implementation, and evaluation can serve as a powerful mechanism to improve liver care in Europe and set the way for similar changes globally.

BackgroundAgeing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures.MethodsThe new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP).FindingsThe direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

Non communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are among the leading drivers of disability and death across OECD countries. NCDs frequently co-occur with depression, which can worsen NCD outcomes, lower quality of life and increase healthcare costs. It is therefore important to understand whether and to what extent NCDs increase the risk of experiencing depression. This paper finds that people living with NCDs have a 15% to 27% higher risk of experiencing depression, depending on the condition, that risk increases with the number of NCDs, and that the relationship appears to be causal. It finds that women and people in financial hardship are more likely to experience depression. The findings have important policy implications: 1) Consideration should be given to mental health and wellbeing in NCD policy, which can yield health and healthcare cost benefits. 2) Strategies to reduce NCD incidence may also reduce depression, and mental health co-benefits should be considered when developing health promotion policies.

Properly implemented, a reformulation policy can help achieve a win-win-win outcome for public health, the food industry and for consumers. This section briefly discusses the opportunities and challenges presented by the implementation of the set of actions needed to achieve food and beverage reformulation, while also presenting the health and economic outcomes based on a scenario of a 20% calorie reduction in foods high in sugar, salt, calories and saturated fats.

This chapter provides an overview of the burden of obesity on population health and the economy. Based on the results of the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for non-communicable diseases (SPHeP-NCDs) model, it presents the impact of obesity on life expectancy, morbidity and mortality, and on health expenditure in 52 countries – including OECD, EU28 and Group of 20 (G20) member countries. It also explores the impact of obesity on the labour market and the wider economy. Linking to the OECD long-term economic model, the impact of obesity on gross domestic product (GDP) and tax rate is assessed.