Explore the vast range of titles available.

Centrally organised facilities with the capacity to test the entire UK population weekly (in 6 days at 10 million tests per day) can be made available much more quickly and cheaply than a vaccine, probably within weeks. Only laboratories that do PCR routinely would participate, subject to central quality control and at cost price. Contacts of positive people who test negative could choose continued home quarantine or, at little extra risk, choose to join a group of up to 10 test-negative contacts (usually with other family members).

By the early 1980s, epidemiologists had identified many important causes of cancer. They had also proposed the 'multi-stage' model of cancer, although none of the hypothesized events in human carcinogenesis had then been identified. The remarkable advances in cell and molecular biology over the past two decades have transformed the scope and methods of cancer epidemiology. There have been a few new discoveries based purely on traditional methods, and many long-suspected minor risks have been estimated more precisely. But modern epidemiological studies often depend on genetic, biochemical or viral assays that had not been developed 20 years ago.

In four randomised trials, human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening for cervical cancer was compared with cytology-based cervical screening, and precursors of cancer were the endpoint in every trial. However, direct estimates are missing of the relative efficacy of HPV-based versus cytology-based screening for prevention of invasive cancer in women who undergo regular screening, of modifiers (eg, age) of this relative efficacy, and of the duration of protection. We did a follow-up study of the four randomised trials to investigate these outcomes. 176 464 women aged 20–64 years were randomly assigned to HPV-based (experimental arm) or cytology-based (control arm) screening in Sweden (Swedescreen), the Netherlands (POBASCAM), England (ARTISTIC), and Italy (NTCC). We followed up these women for a median of 6·5 years (1 214 415 person-years) and identified 107 invasive cervical carcinomas by linkage with screening, pathology, and cancer registries, by masked review of histological specimens, or from reports. Cumulative and study-adjusted rate ratios (experimental vs control) were calculated for incidence of invasive cervical carcinoma. The rate ratio for invasive cervical carcinoma among all women from recruitment to end of follow-up was 0·60 (95% CI 0·40–0·89), with no heterogeneity between studies (p=0·52). Detection of invasive cervical carcinoma was similar between screening methods during the first 2·5 years of follow-up (0·79, 0·46–1·36) but was significantly lower in the experimental arm thereafter (0·45, 0·25–0·81). In women with a negative screening test at entry, the rate ratio was 0·30 (0·15–0·60). The cumulative incidence of invasive cervical carcinoma in women with negative entry tests was 4·6 per 105 (1·1–12·1) and 8·7 per 105 (3·3–18·6) at 3·5 and 5·5 years, respectively, in the experimental arm, and 15·4 per 105 (7·9–27·0) and 36·0 per 105 (23·2–53·5), respectively, in the control arm. Rate ratios did not differ by cancer stage, but were lower for adenocarcinoma (0·31, 0·14–0·69) than for squamous-cell carcinoma (0·78, 0·49–1·25). The rate ratio was lowest in women aged 30–34 years (0·36, 0·14–0·94). HPV-based screening provides 60–70% greater protection against invasive cervical carcinomas compared with cytology. Data of large-scale randomised trials support initiation of HPV-based screening from age 30 years and extension of screening intervals to at least 5 years. European Union, Belgian Foundation Against Cancer, KCE-Centre d'Expertise, IARC, The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, the Italian Ministry of Health.

The effects of extra-pleural pneumonectomy (EPP) on survival and quality of life in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma have, to our knowledge, not been assessed in a randomised trial. We aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of patients who were randomly assigned to EPP or no EPP in the context of trimodal therapy in the Mesothelioma and Radical Surgery (MARS) feasibility study. MARS was a multicentre randomised controlled trial in 12 UK hospitals. Patients aged 18 years or older who had pathologically confirmed mesothelioma and were deemed fit enough to undergo trimodal therapy were included. In a prerandomisation registration phase, all patients underwent induction platinum-based chemotherapy followed by clinical review. After further consent, patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to EPP followed by postoperative hemithorax irradiation or to no EPP. Randomisation was done centrally with computer-generated permuted blocks stratified by surgical centre. The main endpoints were feasibility of randomly assigning 50 patients in 1 year (results detailed in another report), proportion randomised who received treatment, proportion eligible (registered) who proceeded to randomisation, perioperative mortality, and quality of life. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. This is the principal report of the MARS study; all patients have been recruited. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN95583524. Between Oct 1, 2005, and Nov 3, 2008, 112 patients were registered and 50 were subsequently randomly assigned: 24 to EPP and 26 to no EPP. The main reasons for not proceeding to randomisation were disease progression (33 patients), inoperability (five patients), and patient choice (19 patients). EPP was completed satisfactorily in 16 of 24 patients assigned to EPP; in five patients EPP was not started and in three patients it was abandoned. Two patients in the EPP group died within 30 days and a further patient died without leaving hospital. One patient in the no EPP group died perioperatively after receiving EPP off trial in a non-MARS centre. The hazard ratio [HR] for overall survival between the EPP and no EPP groups was 1·90 (95% CI 0·92–3·93; exact p=0·082), and after adjustment for sex, histological subtype, stage, and age at randomisation the HR was 2·75 (1·21–6·26; p=0·016). Median survival was 14·4 months (5·3–18·7) for the EPP group and 19·5 months (13·4 to time not yet reached) for the no EPP group. Of the 49 randomly assigned patients who consented to quality of life assessment (EPP n=23; no EPP n=26), 12 patients in the EPP group and 19 in the no EPP group completed the quality of life questionnaires. Although median quality of life scores were lower in the EPP group than the no EPP group, no significant differences between groups were reported in the quality of life analyses. There were ten serious adverse events reported in the EPP group and two in the no EPP group. In view of the high morbidity associated with EPP in this trial and in other non-randomised studies a larger study is not feasible. These data, although limited, suggest that radical surgery in the form of EPP within trimodal therapy offers no benefit and possibly harms patients. Cancer Research UK ( CRUK/04/003), the June Hancock Mesothelioma Research Fund, and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust.

Clare Turnbull and colleagues identify nine new susceptibility loci for testicular germ-cell tumor. The newly identified risk regions include variants near DAZL and PRDM14 , genes known to be important for germ cell development. Testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) is the most common cancer in young men and is notable for its high familial risks 1 , 2 . So far, six loci associated with TGCT have been reported 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . From genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis of 307,291 SNPs in 986 TGCT cases and 4,946 controls, we selected for follow-up 694 SNPs, which we genotyped in a further 1,064 TGCT cases and 10,082 controls from the UK. We identified SNPs at nine new loci (1q22, 1q24.1, 3p24.3, 4q24, 5q31.1, 8q13.3, 16q12.1, 17q22 and 21q22.3) showing association with TGCT ( P < 5 × 10 −8 ), which together account for an additional 4–6% of the familial risk of TGCT. The loci include genes plausibly related to TGCT development. PRDM14 , at 8q13.3, is essential for early germ cell specification 8 , and DAZL , at 3p24.3, is required for the regulation of germ cell development 9 . Furthermore, PITX1 , at 5q31.1, regulates TERT expression and is the third TGCT-associated locus implicated in telomerase regulation 10 .

Testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is reportedly more sensitive than cytology for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). The effectiveness of HPV testing in primary cervical screening was assessed in the ARTISTIC trial, which was done over two screening rounds approximately 3 years apart (2001–03 and 2004–07) by comparing liquid-based cytology (LBC) combined with HPV testing against LBC alone. Women aged 20–64 years who were undergoing routine screening as part of the English National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme in Greater Manchester were randomly assigned (between July, 2001, and September, 2003) in a ratio of 3:1 to either combined LBC and HPV testing in which the results were revealed and acted on, or to combined LBC and HPV testing where the HPV result was concealed from the patient and investigator. The primary outcome was the detection rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) in the second screening round, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN25417821. There were 24 510 eligible women at entry (18 386 in the revealed group, 6124 in the concealed group). In the first round of screening 233 women (1·27%) in the revealed group had CIN3+, compared with 80 (1·31%) women in the concealed group (odds ratio [OR] 0·97, 95% CI 0·75–1·25; p>0·2). There was an unexpectedly large drop in the proportion of women with CIN3+ between the first and second rounds of screening in both groups, at 0·25% (29 of 11 676) in the revealed group and 0·47% (18 of 3866 women) in the concealed group (OR 0·53, 95% CI 0·30–0·96; p=0·042). For both rounds combined, the proportion of women with CIN3+ were 1·51% (revealed) and 1·77% (concealed) (OR 0·85, 95% CI 0·67–1·08; p>0·2). LBC combined with HPV testing resulted in a significantly lower detection rate of CIN3+ in the second round of screening compared with LBC screening alone, but the effect was small. Over the two screening rounds combined, co-testing did not detect a higher rate of CIN3+ or CIN2+ than LBC alone. Potential changes in screening methodology should be assessed over at least two screening rounds. National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Much of the variation in inherited risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) is probably due to combinations of common low risk variants. We conducted a genome-wide association study of 550,000 tag SNPs in 930 familial colorectal tumor cases and 960 controls. The most strongly associated SNP ( P = 1.72 × 10 −7 , allelic test) was rs6983267 at 8q24.21. To validate this finding, we genotyped rs6983267 in three additional CRC case-control series (4,361 affected individuals and 3,752 controls; 1,901 affected individuals and 1,079 controls; 1,072 affected individuals and 415 controls) and replicated the association, providing P = 1.27 × 10 −14 (allelic test) overall, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.27 (95% confidence interval (c.i.): 1.16–1.39) and 1.47 (95% c.i.: 1.34–1.62) for heterozygotes and rare homozygotes, respectively. Analyses based on 1,477 individuals with colorectal adenoma and 2,136 controls suggest that susceptibility to CRC is mediated through development of adenomas (OR = 1.21, 95% c.i.: 1.10–1.34; P = 6.89 × 10 −5 ). These data show that common, low-penetrance susceptibility alleles predispose to colorectal neoplasia.

The potential germline effects of radiation exposure to military veterans present at British nuclear tests in Australia and the South Pacific is of considerable interest. We analyzed germline mutations in 60 families of UK military personnel comprising 30 control and 30 nuclear test veterans (NTV). Using whole-genome sequencing we studied the frequency and spectra of de novo mutations to investigate the transgenerational effect of veterans’ (potential) exposure to radiation at nuclear bomb test sites. We find no elevation in total de novo single nucleotide variants, small insertion-deletions, structural variants or clustered mutations among the offspring of nuclear test veterans compared to those of control personnel. We did observe an elevated occurrence of single base substitution mutations within mutation signature SBS16, due to a subset of NTV offspring. The relevance of this elevation to potential exposure of veteran fathers and, future health risks, require further investigation. Overall, we find no evidence of increased mutations in the germline of a group of British nuclear test veterans. ISRCTN Registry 17461668.

Recent reports suggest that the reduction in mortality achieved by the UK national cervical screening programme is too small to justify its financial and psychosocial costs, except perhaps in a few high-risk women. We analysed trends in mortality before 1988, when the British national screening programme was launched, to estimate what future trends in cervical cancer mortality would have been without any screening. Cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales in women younger than 35 years rose three-fold from 1967 to 1987. By 1988, incidence in this age-range was among the highest in the world despite substantial opportunistic screening. Since national screening was started in 1988, this rising trend has been reversed. Cervical screening has prevented an epidemic that would have killed about one in 65 of all British women born since 1950 and culminated in about 6000 deaths per year in this country. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty, particularly in relation to the effects of oral contraceptives and changes in sexual behaviour. 80% or more of these deaths (up to 5000 deaths per year) are likely to be prevented by screening, which means that about 100000 (one in 80) of the 8 million British women born between 1951 and 1970 will be saved from premature death by the cervical screening programme at a cost per life saved of about £36 000. The birth cohort trends also provide strong evidence that the death rate throughout life is substantially lower in women who were first screened when they were younger.

We mapped a high-penetrance gene ( CRAC1 ; also known as HMPS ) associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Ashkenazi population to a 0.6-Mb region on chromosome 15 containing SCG5 (also known as SGNE1 ), GREM1 and FMN1 . We hypothesized that the CRAC1 locus harbored low-penetrance variants that increased CRC risk in the general population. In a large series of colorectal cancer cases and controls, SNPs near GREM1 and SCG5 were strongly associated with increased CRC risk (for rs4779584, P = 4.44 × 10 −14 ).