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Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Earthquakes can influence flood hazards by altering the flux, volumes, and distributions of surface and/or subsurface waters and causing physical changes to natural and engineered environments (e.g., elevation, topographic relief, permeability) that affect surface and subsurface hydrologic regimes. This paper analyzes how earthquakes increased flood hazards in Christchurch, New Zealand, using empirical observations and seismological data. Between 4 September 2010 and 4 December 2017, this region hosted one moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 earthquake, 3 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6, and 31 earthquakes with local magnitude (ML) ≥ 5. Flooding related to liquefaction-induced groundwater pore-water fluid pressure perturbations and groundwater expulsion occurred in at least six earthquakes. Flooding related to shaking-induced ground deformations (e.g., subsidence) occurred in at least four earthquakes. Flooding related to tectonic deformations of the land surface (fault surface rupture and/or folding) occurred in at least two earthquakes. At least eight earthquakes caused damage to surface (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads) and subsurface (e.g., pipelines) infrastructure in areas of liquefaction and/or flooding. Severe liquefaction and associated groundwater-expulsion flooding in vulnerable sediments occurred at peak ground accelerations as low as 0.15 to 0.18 g (proportion of gravity). Expected return times of liquefaction-induced flooding in vulnerable sediments were estimated to be 100 to 500 years using the Christchurch seismic hazard curve, which is consistent with emerging evidence from paleo-liquefaction studies. Liquefaction-induced subsidence of 100 to 250 mm was estimated for 100-year peak ground acceleration return periods in parts of Christchurch.

We digitize surface rupture maps and compile observational data from 67 publications on ten of eleven historical, surface-rupturing earthquakes in Australia in order to analyze the prevailing characteristics of surface ruptures and other environmental effects in this crystalline basement-dominated intraplate environment. The studied earthquakes occurred between 1968 and 2018, and range in moment magnitude (Mw) from 4.7 to 6.6. All earthquakes involved co-seismic reverse faulting (with varying amounts of strike-slip) on single or multiple (1–6) discrete faults of ≥ 1 km length that are distinguished by orientation and kinematic criteria. Nine of ten earthquakes have surface-rupturing fault orientations that align with prevailing linear anomalies in geophysical (gravity and magnetic) data and bedrock structure (foliations and/or quartz veins and/or intrusive boundaries and/or pre-existing faults), indicating strong control of inherited crustal structure on contemporary faulting. Rupture kinematics are consistent with horizontal shortening driven by regional trajectories of horizontal compressive stress. The lack of precision in seismological data prohibits the assessment of whether surface ruptures project to hypocentral locations via contiguous, planar principal slip zones or whether rupture segmentation occurs between seismogenic depths and the surface. Rupture centroids of 1–4 km in depth indicate predominantly shallow seismic moment release. No studied earthquakes have unambiguous geological evidence for preceding surface-rupturing earthquakes on the same faults and five earthquakes contain evidence of absence of preceding ruptures since the late Pleistocene, collectively highlighting the challenge of using mapped active faults to predict future seismic hazards. Estimated maximum fault slip rates are 0.2–9.1 m Myr−1 with at least one order of uncertainty. New estimates for rupture length, fault dip, and coseismic net slip can be used to improve future iterations of earthquake magnitude—source size—displacement scaling equations. Observed environmental effects include primary surface rupture, secondary fracture/cracks, fissures, rock falls, ground-water anomalies, vegetation damage, sand-blows/liquefaction, displaced rock fragments, and holes from collapsible soil failure, at maximum estimated epicentral distances ranging from 0 to ~250 km. ESI-07 intensity-scale estimates range by ± 3 classes in each earthquake, depending on the effect considered. Comparing Mw-ESI relationships across geologically diverse environments is a fruitful avenue for future research.

Using ground penetrating radar (GPR) we investigate the near surface (~0–10 m depth) geophysical structure of neotectonic fault-propagation folds and thrust faults in south-central Australia in varying stages of fold and fault growth. Variations in neotectonic fold scarp heights are interpreted to reflect variations in accumulated slip on the underlying reverse faults. Fold scarps on the Nullarbor and Roe Plains are characterized by broad, asymmetric morphologies with vertical displacements of ~5 to ~40 m distributed over 1 to 2 km widths (~0.5 to ~4 m per 100 m). Within increasing scarp height there is an increase in the frequency and spatial density of strong reflector packages in the hanging wall that are attributed to material contrasts imposed by co-seismic fracturing and associated lithological and weathering variations. No evidence for discrete faulting is found at scarp heights up to 40 m (maximum relief of 4 m per 100 m). Where the principal slip zone of a fault ruptures to the surface, scarp morphologies are characterized by steep gradients (ca. 10 m per 100 m). Discrete faulting is imaged in GPR as structural lineaments, abrupt changes in the thickness of reflector packages with variations of amplitude, and/or hyperbolic diffraction packages indicative of the disturbance of reflector packages. Geophysical imaging of subtle changes in the shallow geological structure during growth of fault-propagation folds can be conducted using GPR informing the identification of locations for invasive investigations (e.g., trenching).

Earth science information (data, knowledge, advice) can enhance the evidence base for land-use decision-making. The utility of this information depends on factors including the context and objectives of land-use decisions, the timeliness and efficiency with which earth science information is delivered, and the strength, relevance, uncertainties, and risks assigned to earth science information relative to other inputs. We investigate land-use decision-making practices in Christchurch, New Zealand, and the surrounding region in response to mass movement (e.g., rockfall, cliff collapses) and ground-surface fault rupture hazards incurred during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). Rockfall fatality risk models combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data were co-produced by earth scientists and decision makers and formed primary evidence for risk-based land-use decision-making with adaptive capacity. A public consultation and submission process enabled consideration of additional earth science information primarily via stakeholder requests. For fault rupture hazards, pre-disaster geotechnical guidelines and collaboration networks enhanced the ability of earth scientists to rapidly acquire relevant observational data to meet the demands of decision makers. Expeditious decision-making granted permissive consent for rebuilding in the fault rupture zone based on preliminary scientific advice that was subsequently supported by more comprehensive geological investigations. Rapidly fluctuating and diverse demands for post-disaster earth science information may be best met through the prior establishment of (i) land-use policies and technical guidelines tailored for a variety of diverse disaster scenarios, (ii) hazard and risk analyses in land-use plans, including acquisition of geospatial and other earth science data, and (iii) coordinated scientific networks that may comprise subgroups with diverse goals, operational perspectives, and protocols which allow the many facets of scientific information acquisition and delivery to be successfully addressed. Despite the collective knowledge shared here, some recent land-use practices in New Zealand continue to prioritize other (e.g., socioeconomic) factors above earth science information, even in areas of extreme disaster risk.

To evaluate the geospatial hazard relationships between recent (contemporary) rockfalls and their prehistoric predecessors, we compare the locations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall boulders deposited during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES) (n=185) with those deposited prior to the CES (n=1093). Population ratios of pre-CES to CES boulders at two study sites vary spatially from ∼5:1 to 8.5:1. This is interpreted to reflect (i) variations in CES rockfall flux due to intra- and inter-event spatial differences in ground motions (e.g., directionality) and associated variations in source cliff responses; (ii) possible variations in the triggering mechanism(s), frequency, flux, record duration, boulder size distributions, and post-depositional mobilization of pre-CES rockfalls relative to CES rockfalls; and (iii) geological variations in the source cliffs of CES and pre-CES rockfalls. On interfluves, CES boulders traveled approximately 100 to 250 m further downslope than prehistoric (pre-CES) boulders. This is interpreted to reflect reduced resistance to CES rockfall transport due to preceding anthropogenic hillslope de-vegetation. Volcanic breccia boulders are more dimensionally equant and rounded, are larger, and traveled further downslope than coherent lava boulders, illustrating clear geological control on rockfall hazard. In valley bottoms, the furthest-traveled pre-CES boulders are situated further downslope than CES boulders due to (i) remobilization of pre-CES boulders by post-depositional processes such as debris flows and (ii) reduction of CES boulder velocities and travel distances by collisional impacts with pre-CES boulders. A considered earth-systems approach is required when using preserved distributions of rockfall deposits to predict the severity and extents of future rockfall events.

New high-resolution MC-ICPMS U/Th ages and C and O isotopic analyses from a Holocene speleothem in arid south-central Australia provide evidence for increased effective precipitation (EP) relative to present at c. 11.5 ka and c. 8—5 ka, peak moisture at 7—6 ka, and onset of an arid climate similar to present by c. 5 ka. δ18O and δ13C time-series data exhibit marked (>+1‰) contemporaneous excursions over base-line values of −5.3‰ and −11.0‰, respectively, suggesting pronounced moisture variability during the early middle Holocene ‘climatic optimum’. Optically stimulated luminescence and 14C ages from nearby terraced aggradational alluvial deposits indicate a paucity of large floods in the Late Pleistocene and at least five large flood events in the last c. 6 kyr, interpreted to mark an increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in the middle Holocene despite overall reduced EP. Increased EP in south-central Australia during the early to middle Holocene resulted from (1) decreased El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, which reduced the frequency of El Niño-triggered droughts, (2) the prevalence of a more La Niña-like mean climatic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which increased available atmospheric moisture, and (3) a southward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ), which allowed tropical summer storms associated with the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) to penetrate deeper into the southern part of the continent. The onset of heightened aridity and apparent increase in large flood frequency at c. 5 ka is interpreted to indicate the establishment of an ENSO-like climate in arid Australia in the late Holocene, consistent with a variety of other terrestrial and marine proxies. The broad synchroneity of Holocene climate change across much of the Australian continent with changes in ENSO behavior suggests strong teleconnections amongst ENSO and the other climate systems such as the ASM, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode.

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Shedding new light on the rich intellectual and political milieux shaping the divergent legacies of Joyce and Yeats, Empire's Wake traces how a distinct postcolonial modernism emerged within Irish literature in the late 1920s to contest and extend key aspects of modernist thought and aesthetic innovation at the very moment that the high modernist literary canon was consolidating its influence and prestige. By framing its explorations of postcolonial narrative form against the backdrop of distinct historical moments from the Irish Free State to the Celtic Tiger era, the book charts the different phases of 20th-century postcoloniality in ways that clarify how the comparatively early emergence of the postcolonial in Ireland illuminates the formal shifts accompanying the transition from an age of empire to one of globalization. Bringing together new perspectives on Beckett and Joyce with analyses of the critically neglected works of Sean O'Faoláin, Frank McCourt, and the Blasket autobiographers, Empire's Wake challenges the notion of a singular \"global modernism\" and argues for the importance of critically integrating the local and the international dimensions of modernist aesthetics.

This paper investigates how scientific information and expertise was provided to decision-makers for consideration in situations involving risk and uncertainty. Seven case studies from the earth sciences were used as a medium for this exposition: (1) the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand, (2) agricultural farming-system development in North West Queensland, (3) operational flood models, (4) natural disaster risk assessment for Tasmania, (5) deep sea mining in New Zealand, (6) 3-D modelling of geological resource deposits, and (7) land-based pollutant loads to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Case studies are lead-authored by a diverse range of scientists, based either in universities, industry, or government science agencies, with diverse roles, experiences, and perspectives on the events discussed. The context and mechanisms by which scientific information was obtained, presented to decision-makers, and utilised in decision-making is presented. Sources of scientific uncertainties and how they were communicated to and considered in decision-making processes are discussed. Decisions enacted in each case study are considered in terms of whether they were scientifically informed, aligned with prevailing scientific evidence, considered scientific uncertainty, were informed by models, and were (or were not) precautionary in nature. The roles of other relevant inputs (e.g. political, socioeconomic considerations) in decision-making are also described. Here we demonstrate that scientific evidence may enter decision-making processes through diverse pathways, ranging from direct solicitations by decision-makers to independent requests from stakeholders following media coverage of relevant research. If immediately relevant scientific data cannot be provided with sufficient expediency to meet the demands of decision-makers, decision-makers may (i) seek expert scientific advice and judgement (to assist with decision-making under conditions of high epistemic uncertainty), (ii) delay decision-making (until sufficient evidence is obtained), and/or (iii) provide opportunities for adjustment of decisions as additional information becomes available. If the likelihood of occurrence of potentially adverse future risks is perceived by decision-makers to exceed acceptable thresholds and/or be highly uncertain, precautionary decisions with adaptive capacity may be favoured, even if some scientific evidence suggests lower levels of risk. The efficacy with which relevant scientific data, models, and uncertainties contribute to decision-making may relate to factors including the expediency with which this information can be obtained, the perceived strength and relevance of the information presented, the extent to which relevant experts have participated and collaborated in scientific communications to decision-makers and stakeholders, and the perceived risks to decision-makers of favouring earth science information above other, potentially conflicting, scientific and non-scientific inputs. This paper provides detailed Australian and New Zealand case studies showcasing how science actions and provision pathways contribute to decision-making processes. We outline key learnings from these case studies and encourage more empirical evidence through documented examples to help guide decision-making practices in the future.