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We know that the sea level will rise as climate warms. Nevertheless, accurate projections of how much sea-level rise will occur are difficult to make based solely on modern observations. Determining how ice sheets and sea level have varied in past warm periods can help us better understand how sensitive ice sheets are to higher temperatures. Dutton et al. review recent interdisciplinary progress in understanding this issue, based on data from four different warm intervals over the past 3 million years. Their synthesis provides a clear picture of the progress we have made and the hurdles that still exist. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aaa4019 Reconstructing past magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise can help project what our warmer future may hold. Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records.

Over the past three million years, Earth’s climate oscillated between warmer interglacials with reduced terrestrial ice volume and cooler glacials with expanded polar ice sheets. These climate cycles, as reflected in benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, transitioned from dominantly 41-kyr to 100-kyr periodicities during the mid-Pleistocene 1,250 to 700 kyr ago (ka). Because orbital forcing did not shift at this time, the ultimate cause of this mid-Pleistocene transition remains enigmatic. Here we present foraminiferal trace element (B/Ca, Cd/Ca) and Nd isotope data that demonstrate a close linkage between Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and deep ocean carbon storage across the mid-Pleistocene transition. Specifically, between 950 and 900 ka, carbonate ion saturation decreased by 30 µmol kg−1 and phosphate concentration increased by 0.5 µmol kg−1 coincident with a 20% reduction of North Atlantic Deep Water contribution to the abyssal South Atlantic. These results demonstrate that the glacial deep Atlantic carbon inventory increased by approximately 50 Gt during the transition to 100-kyr glacial cycles. We suggest that the coincidence of our observations with evidence for increased terrestrial ice volume reflects how weaker overturning circulation and Southern Ocean biogeochemical feedbacks facilitated deep ocean carbon storage, which lowered the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and thereby enabled expanded terrestrial ice volume at the mid-Pleistocene transition.Deep Atlantic carbon storage increased and the meriodional overturning circulation weakened at the mid-Pleistocene transition to 100,000-year glacial–interglacial cycles, according to analyses of foraminifera trace elements and Nd isotopes.

The Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, between 5.3 and 0.8 million years ago, span a transition from a global climate state that was 2–3 °C warmer than present with limited ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere to one that was characterized by continental-scale glaciations at both poles. Growth and decay of these ice sheets was paced by variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. However, the nature of the influence of orbital forcing on the ice sheets is unclear, particularly in light of the absence of a strong 20,000-year precession signal in geologic records of global ice volume and sea level. Here we present a record of the rate of accumulation of iceberg-rafted debris offshore from the East Antarctic ice sheet, adjacent to the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, between 4.3 and 2.2 million years ago. We infer that maximum iceberg debris accumulation is associated with the enhanced calving of icebergs during ice-sheet margin retreat. In the warmer part of the record, between 4.3 and 3.5 million years ago, spectral analyses show a dominant periodicity of about 40,000 years. Subsequently, the powers of the 100,000-year and 20,000-year signals strengthen. We suggest that, as the Southern Ocean cooled between 3.5 and 2.5 million years ago, the development of a perennial sea-ice field limited the oceanic forcing of the ice sheet. After this threshold was crossed, substantial retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet occurred only during austral summer insolation maxima, as controlled by the precession cycle. The volume of the East Antarctic ice sheet is influenced by changes in the Earth’s orbit. Ice-rafted debris accumulation between 4.3 and 2.2 million years ago suggests precession affected the extent of the marine margins of the ice sheet.

Global cooling in the Cenozoic, which led to the growth of large continental ice sheets in both hemispheres, may have been caused by the uplift of the Tibetan plateau and the positive feedbacks initiated by this event. In particular, tectonically driven increases in chemical weathering may have resulted in a decrease of atmospheric C0 2 concentration over the past 40 Myr.

Recently, the veracity of the published chronology for the Pliocene section of North Atlantic Ocean Drilling Program Site 982 was called into question. Here, we examine the robustness of the original age model as well as the proposed age model revision. The proposed revision is predicated on an apparent misidentification of the depth to the Gauss–Matuyama (G/M) polarity chronozone reversal boundary (2.581 Ma) based on preliminary shipboard paleomagnetic data, and offers a new chronology that includes a hiatus between ~3.2 and 3 Ma. However, an even more accurate shore-based, u-channel-derived polarity chronozone stratigraphy for the past ~2.7 Ma supports the shipboard composite stratigraphy and demonstrates that the original estimate of the depth of the G/M reversal in the Site 982 record is correct. Thus, the main justification forwarded to support the revised chronology no longer exists. We demonstrate that the proposed revision results in a pronounced anomaly in sedimentation rates proximal to the proposed hiatus, erroneous assignment of marine-isotope stages in the Site 982 Pliocene benthic stable oxygen isotope stratigraphy, and a markedly worse correlation of proxy records between this site and other regional paleoclimate data. We conclude that the original chronology for Site 982 is a far more accurate age model than that which arises from the published revision. We strongly recommend the use of the original chronology for all future work at Site 982.

Climate-proxy records of the past 100,000 years show that the Earth's climate has varied significantly and continuously on timescales as short as a few thousand years ( 1 – 7 ). Similar variability has also recently been observed for the interval 340–500 thousand years ago 8 . These dramatic climate shifts, expressed most strongly in the North Atlantic region, may be linked to — and possibly amplified by — alterations in the mode of ocean thermohaline circulation 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 . Here we use sediment records of past iceberg discharge and deep-water chemistry to show that such millennial-scale oscillations in climate occurred over one million years ago. This was a time of significantly different climate boundary conditions; not only was the early Pleistocene epoch generally warmer, but global climate variations were governed largely by changes in Earth's orbital obliguity. Our results suggest that such millennial-scale climate instability may be a pervasive and long-term characteristic of Earth's climate, rather than just a feature of the strong glacial–interglacial cycles of the past 800,000 years.

Explanations for the temporal and spatial patterns of species biodiversity focus on stability–time 1–3 , disturbance–mosaic (biogenie microhabitat heterogeneity) 4,5 and competition–predation (biotic interactions) 6,7 hypotheses. The stability–time hypothesis holds that high species diversity in the deep sea and in the tropics reflects long-term climatic stability 3 . But the influence of climate change on deep-sea diversity has not been studied and recent evidence suggests that deep-sea environments undergo changes in climatically driven temperature 8 and flux of nutrients 9 and organic-carbon 10 during glacial–interglacial cycles. Here we show that Pliocene (2.85–2.40 Myr) deep-sea North Atlantic benthic ostracod (Crustacea) species diversity is related to solar insolation changes caused by 41,000-yr cycles of Earth's obliquity (tilt). Temporal changes in diversity, as measured by the Shannon–Weiner index, H ( S ), correlate with independent climate indicators of benthic foraminiferal oxygen-isotope ratios (mainly ice volume 11–13 ) and ostracod Mg:Ca ratios (bottom-water temperature 8 ). During glacial periods, H ( S ) = 0.2–0.6, whereas during interglacials, H ( S ) = 1.2–1.6, which is three to four times as high. The control of deep-sea benthic diversity by cyclic climate change at timescales of 10 3 –10 4 yr does not support the stability–time hypothesis because it shows that the deep sea is a temporally dynamic environment. Diversity oscillations reflect large-scale response of the benthic community to climatically driven changes in either thermohaline circulation, bottom temperature (or temperature-related factors) and food, and a coupling of benthic diversity to surface productivity.

We propose that from ~3 to 1 million years ago, ice volume changes occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, each controlled by local summer insolation. Because Earth's orbital precession is out of phase between hemispheres, 23,000-year changes in ice volume in each hemisphere cancel out in globally integrated proxies such as ocean δ¹⁸O or sea level, leaving the in-phase obliquity (41,000 years) component of insolation to dominate those records. Only a modest ice mass change in Antarctica is required to effectively cancel out a much larger northern ice volume signal. At the mid-Pleistocene transition, we propose that marine-based ice sheet margins replaced terrestrial ice margins around the perimeter of East Antarctica, resulting in a shift to in-phase behavior of northern and southern ice sheets as well as the strengthening of 23,000-year cyclicity in the marine δ¹⁸O record.

A study that investigated a climate system with three steady states and a set of predefined rules for moving between them--interglacial, mild glacial and full glacial--is discussed. Most of the full glacial episodes correspond to extended times of low summer insolation.

Global mean sea level during the mid-Pliocene epoch (∼3 Ma), when CO2 and temperatures were above present levels, was notably higher than today due to reduced global ice sheet coverage. Nevertheless, the extent to which ice sheets responded to Pliocene warmth remains in question owing to high levels of uncertainty in proxy-based sea level reconstructions as well as solid Earth dynamic models that have been used to evaluate a limited number of data constraints. Here, we present a global dataset of 10 wave-cut scarps that formed by successive Pliocene sea level oscillations and which are observed today at elevations ranging from ∼6 to 109 m above sea level. The present-day elevations of these features have been identified using a combination of high-resolution digital elevation models and field mapping. Using the MATLAB interface TerraceM, we extrapolate the cliff and platform surfaces to determine the elevation of the scarp toe, which in most settings is buried under meters of talus. We correct the scarp-toe elevations for glacial isostatic adjustment and find that this process alone cannot explain observed differences in Pliocene paleo-shoreline elevations around the globe. We next determine the signal associated with mantle dynamic topography by back-advecting the present-day three-dimensional buoyancy structure of the mantle and calculating the difference in radial surface stresses over the last 3 Myr using the convection code ASPECT. We include a wide range of present-day mantle structures (buoyancy and viscosity) constrained by seismic tomography models, geodynamic observations, and rock mechanics laboratory experiments. Finally, we identify preferred dynamic topography change predictions based on their agreement with scarp elevations and use our most confident result to estimate a Pliocene global mean sea level based on one scarp from De Hoop, South Africa. This inference (11.6 ± 5.2 m) is a downward revision and may imply that ice sheets were relatively resistant to warm Pliocene climate conditions. We also conclude, however, that more targeted model development is needed to more reliably infer mid-Pliocene global mean sea level based on all scarps mapped in this study.