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Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Parasitic nematodes (roundworms) and platyhelminths (flatworms) cause debilitating chronic infections of humans and animals, decimate crop production and are a major impediment to socioeconomic development. Here we report a broad comparative study of 81 genomes of parasitic and non-parasitic worms. We have identified gene family births and hundreds of expanded gene families at key nodes in the phylogeny that are relevant to parasitism. Examples include gene families that modulate host immune responses, enable parasite migration though host tissues or allow the parasite to feed. We reveal extensive lineage-specific differences in core metabolism and protein families historically targeted for drug development. From an in silico screen, we have identified and prioritized new potential drug targets and compounds for testing. This comparative genomics resource provides a much-needed boost for the research community to understand and combat parasitic worms.

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Abiotic stresses in plants are often transient, and the recovery phase following stress removal is critical. Flooding, a major abiotic stress that negatively impacts plant biodiversity and agriculture, is a sequential stress where tolerance is strongly dependent on viability underwater and during the postflooding period. Here we show that in Arabidopsis thaliana accessions (Bay-0 and Lp2-6), different rates of submergence recovery correlate with submergence tolerance and fecundity. A genome-wide assessment of ribosome-associated transcripts in Bay-0 and Lp2-6 revealed a signaling network regulating recovery processes. Differential recovery between the accessions was related to the activity of three genes: RESPIRATORY BURST OXIDASE HOMOLOG D, SENESCENCE-ASSOCIATED GENE113, and ORESARA1, which function in a regulatory network involving a reactive oxygen species (ROS) burst upon desubmergence and the hormones abscisic acid and ethylene. This regulatory module controls ROS homeostasis, stomata! aperture, and chlorophyll degradation during submergence recovery. This work uncovers a signaling network that regulates recovery processes following flooding to hasten the return to prestress homeostasis.

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Aims :Vegetation-plot records provide information on the presence and cover or abundance of plants co-occurring in the same community. Vegetation-plot data are spread across research groups, environmental agencies and biodiversity research centers and, thus, are rarely accessible at continental or global scales. Here we present the sPlot database, which collates vegetation plots worldwide to allow for the exploration of global patterns in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity at the plant community level. Results: sPlot version 2.1 contains records from 1,121,244 vegetation plots, which comprise 23,586,216 records of plant species and their relative cover or abundance in plots collected worldwide between 1885 and 2015. We complemented the information for each plot by retrieving climate and soil conditions and the biogeographic context (e.g., biomes) from external sources, and by calculating community-weighted means and variances of traits using gap-filled data from the global plant trait database TRY. Moreover, we created a phylogenetic tree for 50,167 out of the 54,519 species identified in the plots. We present the first maps of global patterns of community richness and community-weighted means of key traits. Conclusions: The availability of vegetation plot data in sPlot offers new avenues for vegetation analysis at the global scale.

Collinearity refers to the non independence of predictor variables, usually in a regression-type analysis. It is a common feature of any descriptive ecological data set and can be a problem for parameter estimation because it inflates the variance of regression parameters and hence potentially leads to the wrong identification of relevant predictors in a statistical model. Collinearity is a severe problem when a model is trained on data from one region or time, and predicted to another with a different or unknown structure of collinearity. To demonstrate the reach of the problem of collinearity in ecology, we show how relationships among predictors differ between biomes, change over spatial scales and through time. Across disciplines, different approaches to addressing collinearity problems have been developed, ranging from clustering of predictors, threshold-based pre-selection, through latent variable methods, to shrinkage and regularisation. Using simulated data with five predictor-response relationships of increasing complexity and eight levels of collinearity we compared ways to address collinearity with standard multiple regression and machine-learning approaches. We assessed the performance of each approach by testing its impact on prediction to new data. In the extreme, we tested whether the methods were able to identify the true underlying relationship in a training dataset with strong collinearity by evaluating its performance on a test dataset without any collinearity. We found that methods specifically designed for collinearity, such as latent variable methods and tree based models, did not outperform the traditional GLM and threshold-based pre-selection. Our results highlight the value of GLM in combination with penalised methods (particularly ridge) and threshold-based pre-selection when omitted variables are considered in the final interpretation. However, all approaches tested yielded degraded predictions under change in collinearity structure and the folk lore'-thresholds of correlation coefficients between predictor variables of |r| >0.7 was an appropriate indicator for when collinearity begins to severely distort model estimation and subsequent prediction. The use of ecological understanding of the system in pre-analysis variable selection and the choice of the least sensitive statistical approaches reduce the problems of collinearity, but cannot ultimately solve them.

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Seeds preserve a far developed plant embryo in a quiescent state. Seed metabolism relies on stored resources and is reactivated to drive germination when the external conditions are favorable. Since the switchover from quiescence to reactivation provides a remarkable case of a cell physiological transition we investigated the earliest events in energy and redox metabolism of Arabidopsis seeds at imbibition. By developing fluorescent protein biosensing in intact seeds, we observed ATP accumulation and oxygen uptake within minutes, indicating rapid activation of mitochondrial respiration, which coincided with a sharp transition from an oxidizing to a more reducing thiol redox environment in the mitochondrial matrix. To identify individual operational protein thiol switches, we captured the fast release of metabolic quiescence in organello and devised quantitative iodoacetyl tandem mass tag (iodoTMT)-based thiol redox proteomics. The redox state across all Cys peptides was shifted toward reduction from 27.1% down to 13.0% oxidized thiol. A large number of Cys peptides (412) were redox switched, representing central pathways of mitochondrial energy metabolism, including the respiratory chain and each enzymatic step of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle. Active site Cys peptides of glutathione reductase 2, NADPH-thioredoxin reductase a/b, and thioredoxin-o1 showed the strongest responses. Germination of seeds lacking those redox proteins was associated with markedly enhanced respiration and deregulated TCA cycle dynamics suggesting decreased resource efficiency of energy metabolism. Germination in aged seeds was strongly impaired. We identify a global operation of thiol redox switches that is required for optimal usage of energy stores by the mitochondria to drive efficient germination.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have transformed our understanding of glioma susceptibility, but individual studies have had limited power to identify risk loci. We performed a meta-analysis of existing GWAS and two new GWAS, which totaled 12,496 cases and 18,190 controls. We identified five new loci for glioblastoma (GBM) at 1p31.3 (rs12752552; P = 2.04 x 10(-9), odds ratio (OR) = 1.22), 11q14.1 (rs11233250; P = 9.95 x 10(-10), OR = 1.24), 16p13.3 (rs2562152; P = 1.93 x 10-8, OR = 1.21), 16q12.1 (rs10852606; P = 1.29 x 10(-11), OR = 1.18) and 22q13.1 (rs2235573; P = 1.76 x 10(-10), OR = 1.15), as well as eight loci for non-GBM tumors at 1q32.1 (rs4252707; P = 3.34 x 10(-9), OR = 1.19), 1q44 (rs12076373; P = 2.63 x 10(-10), OR = 1.23), 2q33.3 (rs7572263; P = 2.18 x 10(-10), OR = 1.20), 3p14.1 (rs11706832; P = 7.66 x 10(-9), OR = 1.15), 10q24.33 (rs11598018; P = 3.39 x 10-8, OR = 1.14), 11q21 (rs7107785; P = 3.87 x 10(-10), OR = 1.16), 14q12 (rs10131032; P = 5.07 x 10(-11), OR = 1.33) and 16p13.3 (rs3751667; P = 2.61 x 10(-9), OR = 1.18). These data substantiate that genetic susceptibility to GBM and non-GBM tumors are highly distinct, which likely reflects different etiology.