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We address the organization of criminal justice forecasting and implications for its use in criminal justice policymaking. We argue that the use of forecasting is relatively widespread in criminal justice agency settings, but it is used primarily to inform decision-making and practice rather than to formulate and test new policy proposals. Using predictive policing and prison population forecasting as our main examples of the range of forecasting methods adopted in criminal justice practice, we describe their uses, how their use is organized, and the implications of the organizational arrangements for the transparent, reviewable, and consensual use of forecasting. We point out that both prison population forecasting and predictive policing have long histories that have led to advances in methodology. Prison population forecasting has generally become embedded in budget decision-making processes that contribute to greater transparency in method and applications. Predictive policing has been less transparent in method and use, partly because the methods are more complicated and rely on larger amounts of data, but it generally has not be used in ways to foster community engagement and build public support. Concerns about the legitimacy of its use persist.

Sabol talks about the impacts of paternal incarceration on children that survey data lack, particularly in measuring the intervention of incarceration. In developing research agendas on the effects of paternal incarceration, it is clear that better data are needed, and the ongoing efforts to link administrative data to survey data offer some promise. Federally sponsored household surveys that aim to measure incarceration in order to characterize households may better be served by measuring the duration of the most recent episode and prior episodes within a relatively short reference period.

A theme among the articles by L. Andersen; Wakefield and Powell; and Berger and colleagues in this volume is that administrative data have certain strengths for studying the impacts of paternal incarceration on children that survey data lack, particularly in measuring the intervention of incarceration. The first two articles report microlevel effects of paternal incarceration on children, and the Berger et al. article describes some macrosocial trends in the relationships between incarcerated individuals with CPS-involved children. Although the Berger et al. article does not directly relate to the issues addressed in the L. Andersen article (impacts on education and crime outcomes for children of incarcerated fathers) or the Wakefield and Powell article (impacts on children’s aggression and externalizing behaviors), it implies that we should expect to observe a relationship between the microlevel effects and the macrolevel indicators, such as juvenile crime, education, foster care, and other measures of the well-being of youth. Developing a better understanding of the relationship between the micro- and macroeffects can help us to learn whether impacts of paternal incarceration on very young children (as in the Wakefield and Powell article) endure over time or whether the causes of youth involvement in crime are more proximate in time to the events. They can help us to understand the trends in the macrolevel indicators. For example, if the aggression and externalizing behavior findings that Wakefield and Powell report are correlated with longer-term juvenile delinquency, then we should expect to see the effects in the delinquency rates for youth in later years.

During the late 20th century, imprisonment rates in the United States saw unprecedented growth, leading correctional systems across the country to face widespread overcrowding and underfunding. Subsequently, policy makers sought out alternatives to incarceration for certain categories of offenses. Community supervision, such as probation, emerged as a popular solution to both reduce prison and jail populations as well as to generate revenue to fund the rapidly expanding legal system. With the rise in community supervision came increases in the number of people on probation for lower-level and non-violent offenses. The expansion of legal financial obligations (LFO) placed additional burdens on these persons, who disproportionately sit in lower socio-economic status brackets. Using data from the 1995 Survey of Adults on Probation (SAP), the current study adds to the literature on probation and LFOs in an important way. The SAP data contain information on the amount, frequency, and type of LFO. Thus, this paper examines the distinct types of LFOs to determine the differential burden that each type of LFO has on people on probation. This paper finds that of all types of fees, those associated with victim restitution are most likely to lead to missed payments, while those that generate revenues do not contribute significantly to missed payments. This paper discusses the implications of this for procedural justice and fairness.

This study examines the effects of agency education requirements on racial differences in police-related fatalities (PRFs) across 235 large US cities between 2000 and 2016. We estimated Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) regression models with multiple fixed effects using data from the Fatal Encounters database, Bureau of Justice Statistics’ Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, and other publicly available databases. Results show that adopting agency college degree requirements is generally associated with decreases in PRFs over time, with significant reductions observed for PRFs of Black and unarmed citizens. Our study suggests mandating at least an associate’s degree for entry-level officers should equate to lower rates of Black people and unarmed persons killed by police actions and more balance in the racial distribution of PRFs. Police leaders and local governments should consider these findings when crafting policies to protect against fatal police-citizen encounters.

Unprecedented growth in the size of the U.S. jail and prison populations during the late 20th century was accompanied by rapid increases in the size of the probation population. Probation, while intended to be an alternative to incarceration, has been described as a pathway to an incarceration stint because of its onerous conditions and other requirements. An emerging literature is examining how one of these conditions, legal financial obligations (e.g., fines, supervision fees, restitution), affect probation outcomes. However, this research is limited because data on legal financial obligations often do not detail the various types, amounts, and frequencies of payments toward LFO debt. In this paper, we tap the 1995 Survey of Adults on Probation (SAP) to study the impacts of debt burden (e.g., the amount, frequency, and type of LFO) on probationers’ capacity to make the required payments. Importantly, we find that of the seven types of LFOs included in the SAP, restitution alone was consistently shown to be the LFO associated with missing a payment across model specifications. Although the SAP data are from 1995, research indicates the use of LFOs has expanded since then. Thus, we are more likely to underestimate the impacts of the differential burden of specific LFOs on people on probation.

IntroductionObservational studies have linked slower and faster net ultrafiltration (UFNET) rates during kidney replacement therapy (KRT) with mortality in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and fluid overload. To inform the design of a larger randomised trial of patient-centered outcomes, we conduct a feasibility study to examine restrictive and liberal approaches to UFNET during continuous KRT (CKRT).Methods and analysisThis study is an investigator-initiated, unblinded, 2-arm, comparative-effectiveness, stepped-wedged, cluster randomised trial among 112 critically ill patients with AKI treated with CKRT in 10 intensive care units (ICUs) across 2 hospital systems. In the first 6 months, all ICUs started with a liberal UFNET rate strategy. Thereafter, one ICU is randomised to the restrictive UFNET rate strategy every 2 months. In the liberal group, the UFNET rate is maintained between 2.0 and 5.0 mL/kg/hour; in the restrictive group, the UFNET rate is maintained between 0.5 and 1.5 mL/kg/hour. The three coprimary feasibility outcomes are (1) between-group separation in mean delivered UFNET rates; (2) protocol adherence; and (3) patient recruitment rate. Secondary outcomes include daily and cumulative fluid balance, KRT and mechanical ventilation duration, organ failure-free days, ICU and hospital length of stay, hospital mortality and KRT dependence at hospital discharge. Safety endpoints include haemodynamics, electrolyte imbalance, CKRT circuit issues, organ dysfunction related to fluid overload, secondary infections and thrombotic and haematological complications.Ethics and disseminationThe University of Pittsburgh Human Research Protection Office approved the study, and an independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board monitors the study. A grant from the United States National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases sponsors the study. The trial results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences.Trial registration numberThis trial has been prospectively registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05306964). Protocol version identifier and date: 1.5; 13 June 2023.

Sabol and Johnson examine the US' Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 (Crime Bill) with regard to its impact on prison populations. Enacted in the wake of historic peaks in violence and public fear of crime, the Crime Bill included provisions to directly and indirectly affect the size and composition of state and federal prison populations. Among these were measures that expanded the federal death penalty to cover roughly 60 offenses, authorized federal adult prosecution of persons age 13 and older charged with certain violent crimes, required mandatory life imprisonment without the possibility of parole for people in the federal system with three or more convictions for serious violent felonies or drug trafficking crimes, required registration of sexually violent offenders upon their release from state prison, and authorized funds to reimburse states for incarcerating illegal criminal aliens.

Sabol et al discusses the trends in correctional control by race and sex in the US. American prison populations have long been characterized by racial and ethnic disparities. US Census Bureau data on incarcerated persons from 1870 through 1980 show that black incarceration rates ranged from three to nine times those of whites, depending upon the decade and region of the country. According to Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reports over the past 40 years, black imprisonment rates ranged from about six to about eight times those of whites.

Objective To determine the mortality attributable to smoking and years of potential life lost from smoking among people in prison and whether bans on smoking in prison are associated with reductions in smoking related deaths.Design Analysis of cross sectional survey data with the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system; population based time series analysis.Setting All state prisons in the United States.Main outcome measures Prevalence of smoking from cross sectional survey of inmates in state correctional facilities. Data on state prison tobacco policies from web based searches of state policies and legislation. Deaths and causes of death in US state prisons from the deaths in custody reporting program of the Bureau of Justice Statistics for 2001-11. Smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost was assessed from the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multivariate Poisson models quantified the association between bans and smoking related cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary deaths.Results The most common causes of deaths related to smoking among people in prison were lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, other heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic airways obstruction. The age adjusted smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost rates were 360 and 5149 per 100 000, respectively; these figures are higher than rates in the general US population (248 and 3501, respectively). The number of states with any smoking ban increased from 25 in 2001 to 48 by 2011. In prisons the mortality rate from smoking related causes was lower during years with a ban than during years without a ban (110.4/100 000 v 128.9/100 000). Prisons that implemented smoking bans had a 9% reduction (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.95) in smoking related deaths. Bans in place for longer than nine years were associated with reductions in cancer mortality (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.90).Conclusions Smoking contributes to substantial mortality in prison, and prison tobacco control policies are associated with reduced mortality. These findings suggest that smoking bans have health benefits for people in prison, despite the limits they impose on individual autonomy and the risks of relapse after release.