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The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries' reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control.

Background Water is the most abundant resource on earth, however water scarcity affects more than 40% of people worldwide. Access to safe drinking water is a basic human right and is a United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6. Globally, waterborne diseases such as cholera are responsible for over two million deaths annually. Cholera is a major cause of ill-health in Africa and Uganda. This study aimed to determine the physicochemical characteristics of the surface and spring water in cholera endemic communities of Uganda in order to promote access to safe drinking water. Methods A longitudinal study was carried out between February 2015 and January 2016 in cholera prone communities of Uganda. Surface and spring water used for domestic purposes including drinking from 27 sites (lakes, rivers, irrigation canal, springs and ponds) were tested monthly to determine the vital physicochemical parameters, namely pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, conductivity and turbidity. Results Overall, 318 water samples were tested. Twenty-six percent (36/135) of the tested samples had mean test results that were outside the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended drinking water range. All sites (100%, 27/27) had mean water turbidity values greater than the WHO drinking water recommended standards and the temperature of above 17 °C. In addition, 27% (3/11) of the lake sites and 2/5 of the ponds had pH and dissolved oxygen respectively outside the WHO recommended range of 6.5–8.5 for pH and less than 5 mg/L for dissolved oxygen. These physicochemical conditions were ideal for survival of Vibrio. cholerae . Conclusions This study showed that surface water and springs in the study area were unsafe for drinking and had favourable physicochemical parameters for propagation of waterborne diseases including cholera. Therefore, for Uganda to attain the SDG 6 targets and to eliminate cholera by 2030, more efforts are needed to promote access to safe drinking water. Also, since this study only established the vital water physicochemical parameters, further studies are recommended to determine the other water physicochemical parameters such as the nitrates and copper. Studies are also needed to establish the causal-effect relationship between V. cholerae and the physicochemical parameters.

Immunological heterogeneity has long been the major challenge in developing broadly effective vaccines to protect humans and animals against bacterial and viral infections. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strains, the leading bacterial cause of diarrhea in humans, express at least 23 immunologically different colonization factor antigens (CFAs) and two distinct enterotoxins [heat-labile toxin (LT) and heat-stable toxin type Ib (STa or hSTa)]. ETEC strains expressing any one or two CFAs and either toxin cause diarrhea, therefore vaccines inducing broad immunity against a majority of CFAs, if not all, and both toxins are expected to be effective against ETEC. In this study, we applied the multiepitope fusion antigen (MEFA) strategy to construct ETEC antigens and examined antigens for broad anti-CFA and antitoxin immunogenicity. CFA MEFA CFA/I/II/IV [CVI 2014, 21(2):243-9], which carried epitopes of seven CFAs [CFA/I, CFA/II (CS1, CS2, CS3), CFA/IV (CS4, CS5, CS6)] expressed by the most prevalent and virulent ETEC strains, was genetically fused to LT-STa toxoid fusion monomer 3xSTaA14Q-dmLT or 3xSTaN12S-dmLT [IAI 2014, 82(5):1823-32] for CFA/I/II/IV-STaA14Q-dmLT and CFA/I/II/IV-STaN12S-dmLT MEFAs. Mice intraperitoneally immunized with either CFA/I/II/IV-STa-toxoid-dmLT MEFA developed antibodies specific to seven CFAs and both toxins, at levels equivalent or comparable to those induced from co-administration of the CFA/I/II/IV MEFA and toxoid fusion 3xSTaN12S-dmLT. Moreover, induced antibodies showed in vitro adherence inhibition activities against ETEC or E. coli strains expressing these seven CFAs and neutralization activities against both toxins. These results indicated CFA/I/II/IV-STa-toxoid-dmLT MEFA or CFA/I/II/IV MEFA combined with 3xSTaN12S-dmLT induced broadly protective anti-CFA and antitoxin immunity, and suggested their potential application in broadly effective ETEC vaccine development. This MEFA strategy may be generally used in multivalent vaccine development.

The integration of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) into cholera surveillance marks a pivotal shift in global cholera control strategies. In 2024, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance initiated the shipment of cholera RDTs to cholera-endemic countries via Gavi diagnostic support, aligning with the publication of the Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC) surveillance for cholera guidance. The GTFCC guidance recommends systematically testing suspected cases of cholera with RDTs. Implementing these tests at scale requires substantial changes to health systems spanning logistics, operations, and finance, such as supply chain adaptations, training key personnel, and integrating RDTs into national surveillance systems. Competing health priorities and declining global health funding further complicate implementation efforts. Additionally, although RDTs are valued for their speed and accessibility, concerns about their diagnostic accuracy remain. This is despite GTFCC guidance—based on prospective studies and systematic reviews—confirming that their performance is sufficient to support expanded use for early outbreak detection and monitoring. This Personal View argues that RDT-driven surveillance can close long-standing data gaps, refine burden estimates, and improve targeted interventions, such as vaccines, through early outbreak detection and rapid response. Despite complex factors that must be accounted for during implementation, with sustained support from Gavi and the GTFCC, the roll-out of RDTs for cholera is a major step towards achieving the 2030 cholera elimination goals.

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strains are a leading cause of children’s and travelers’ diarrhea. Developing effective vaccines against this heterologous group has proven difficult due to the varied nature of toxins and adhesins that determine their pathology. A multivalent candidate vaccine was developed using a multi-epitope fusion antigen (MEFA) vaccinology platform and shown to effectively elicit broad protective antibody responses in mice and pigs. However, direct protection against ETEC colonization of the small intestine was not measured in these systems. Colonization of ETEC strains is known to be a determining factor in disease outcomes and is adhesin-dependent. In this study, we developed a non-surgical rabbit colonization model to study immune protection against ETEC colonization in rabbits. We tested the ability for the MEFA-based vaccine adhesin antigen, in combination with dmLT adjuvant, to induce broad immune responses and to protect from ETEC colonization of the rabbit small intestine. Our results indicate that the candidate vaccine MEFA antigen elicits antibodies in rabbits that react to seven adhesins included in its construction and protects against colonization of a challenge strain that consistently colonized naïve rabbits.

In 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both. Using mathematical models we determined the minimum relative single-dose efficacy (MRSE) at which single-dose reactive campaigns are expected to be as or more effective than two-dose campaigns with the same amount of vaccine. Average one- and two-dose OCV effectiveness was estimated from published literature and compared to the MRSE. Results were applied to recent outbreaks in Haiti, Zimbabwe, and Guinea using stochastic simulations to illustrate the potential impact of one- and two-dose campaigns. At the start of an epidemic, a single dose must be 35%-56% as efficacious as two doses to avert the same number of cases with a fixed amount of vaccine (i.e., MRSE between 35% and 56%). This threshold decreases as vaccination is delayed. Short-term OCV effectiveness is estimated to be 77% (95% CI 57%-88%) for two doses and 44% (95% CI -27% to 76%) for one dose. This results in a one-dose relative efficacy estimate of 57% (interquartile range 13%-88%), which is above conservative MRSE estimates. Using our best estimates of one- and two-dose efficacy, we projected that a single-dose reactive campaign could have prevented 70,584 (95% prediction interval [PI] 55,943-86,205) cases in Zimbabwe, 78,317 (95% PI 57,435-100,150) in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 2,826 (95% PI 2,490-3,170) cases in Conakry, Guinea: 1.1 to 1.2 times as many as a two-dose campaign. While extensive sensitivity analyses were performed, our projections of cases averted in past epidemics are based on severely limited single-dose efficacy data and may not fully capture uncertainty due to imperfect surveillance data and uncertainty about the transmission dynamics of cholera in each setting. Reactive vaccination campaigns using a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a standard two-dose campaign when vaccine supplies are limited, while at the same time reducing logistical complexity. These findings should motivate consideration of the trade-offs between one- and two-dose campaigns in resource-constrained settings, though further field efficacy data are needed and should be a priority in any one-dose campaign.

We conducted 4 years of epidemiologic and genomic surveillance of single-dose effectiveness of a killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (kOCV) and Vibrio cholerae transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We enrolled 1,154 patients with diarrhea; 342 of those had culture-confirmed cholera. We performed whole-genome sequencing on clinical and water V. cholerae isolates from 200 patient households, which showed annual bimodal peaks of V. cholerae clade AFR10e infections. A large clonal cholera outbreak occurred 14 months after a kOCV campaign of >1 million doses, likely because of low (9%) vaccine coverage in informal settlements. Clinical and water isolates collected in the same household were closely related, suggesting person-to-person and water-to-person transmission. Single-dose kOCV vaccine effectiveness 24 months after vaccination was 59.8% (95% CI 19.7%-79.9%), suggesting modest single-dose kOCV protection. kOCV campaigns combined with water, sanitation, and hygiene programs should be used to reduce cholera in disease-endemic settings worldwide.

Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010-2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as \"hotspots\" based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as \"hotspots\" from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India.

Rotavirus vaccine has proved effective for prevention of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in infants in developed countries, but no efficacy studies have been done in developing countries in Asia. We assessed the clinical efficacy of live oral pentavalent rotavirus vaccine for prevention of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in infants in Bangladesh and Vietnam. In this multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, undertaken in rural Matlab, Bangladesh, and urban and periurban Nha Trang, Vietnam, infants aged 4–12 weeks without symptoms of gastrointestinal disorders were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive three oral doses of pentavalent rotavirus vaccine 2 mL or placebo at around 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks of age, in conjunction with routine infant vaccines including oral poliovirus vaccine. Randomisation was done by computer-generated randomisation sequence in blocks of six. Episodes of gastroenteritis in infants who presented to study medical facilities were reported by clinical staff and from parent recollection. The primary endpoint was severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (Vesikari score ≥11) arising 14 days or more after the third dose of placebo or vaccine to end of study (March 31, 2009; around 21 months of age). Analysis was per protocol; infants who received scheduled doses of vaccine or placebo without intervening laboratory-confirmed naturally occurring rotavirus disease earlier than 14 days after the third dose and had complete clinical and laboratory results were included in the analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00362648. 2036 infants were randomly assigned to receive pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (n=1018) or placebo (n=1018). 991 infants assigned to pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and 978 assigned to placebo were included in the per-protocol analysis. Median follow up from 14 days after the third dose of placebo or vaccine until final disposition was 498 days (IQR 480–575). 38 cases of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (Vesikari score ≥11) were reported during more than 1197 person-years of follow up in the vaccine group, compared with 71 cases in more than 1156 person years in the placebo group, resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 48·3% (95% CI 22·3–66·1) against severe disease (p=0·0005 for efficacy >0%) during nearly 2 years of follow-up. 25 (2·5%) of 1017 infants assigned to receive vaccine and 20 (2·0%) of 1018 assigned to receive placebo had a serious adverse event within 14 days of any dose. The most frequent serious adverse event was pneumonia (vaccine 12 [1·2%]; placebo 15 [1·5%]). In infants in developing countries in Asia, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine is safe and efficacious against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis, and our results support expanded WHO recommendations to promote its global use. PATH (GAVI Alliance grant) and Merck.

Vibrio cholerae are often infected with pathogen-specific virulent bacteriophages (phages) that may be found associated with V. cholerae or independently from the bacteria, especially in environmental water samples. When detected, these phages can serve as a surrogate for detection of V. cholerae and they also have an important role in the ecology of V. cholerae. Vibriophages can be detected using plaque or molecular (PCR) assays, but these methods are time-consuming and require specialized laboratory resources. To increase the accessibility of phage detection for epidemiologic applications, we developed a simple, rapid, and inexpensive colorimetric assay to detect vibriophage that can be scaled quickly to screen large numbers of samples. The assay uses resazurin and V. cholerae AC6169 that is susceptible to vibriophages ICP1, 2, and 3. Resazurin is a dye that turns from blue to pink when added to a culture broth with growing bacteria. We hypothesized that when a bacteria-free test sample, such as filtered wastewater containing vibriophage is added to culture broth with AC6169 and resazurin, the phages will lyse the bacteria preventing their growth, and the color of the broth will remain blue. However, if there are no vibriophages in the sample, the bacteria will grow rapidly, and the culture broth will turn pink. We developed the assay using ICP1 spiked samples of environmental water, stool and frozen bile peptone and found it to be sensitive with a limit of detection of 4-40 plaque forming units/ml. This colorimetric assay provides a convenient method to detect vibriophages on a larger scale than was possible earlier. Its use should help to better understand the role of vibriophage as a surrogate for detecting V. cholerae and better understand their role in the pathogenesis, ecology, and epidemiology of cholera.