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We aimed to predict practicing surgeon workforce size across ten specialties to provide an up-to-date, national perspective on future surgical workforce shortages or surpluses. Twenty-one years of AMA Masterfile data (1997–2017) were used to predict surgeons practicing from 2030 to 2050. Published ratios of surgeons/100,000 population were used to estimate the number of surgeons needed. MGMA median wRVU/surgeon by specialty (2017) was used to determine wRVU demand and capacity based on projected and needed number of surgeons. By 2030, surgeon shortages across nine specialties: Cardiothoracic, Otolaryngology, General Surgery, Obstetrics-Gynecology, Ophthalmology, Orthopedics, Plastics, Urology, and Vascular, are estimated to increase clinical workload by 10–50% additional wRVU. By 2050, shortages in eight specialties are estimated to increase clinical workload by 7–61% additional wRVU. If historical trends continue, a majority of surgical specialties are estimated to experience workforce deficits, increasing clinical demands substantially. •Surgeon shortages were identified for nine specialties in 2030 and eight specialties in 2050.•Clinical productivity would need to increase by 7–61% addition RVUs to overcome shortages.•General surgery may have the worst deficit with a gap of over 25,000 surgeons by 2050 if trends are not addressed.

BackgroundAn increasing proportion of ventral hernia patients are over age 65. These patients are frequently offered watchful waiting rather than surgical intervention due to their frail state or perioperative risk. However, many in this age group suffer from significant quality of life impacts that are not well understood.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Abdominal Core Health Quality Collaborative (ACHQC), including adults undergoing elective ventral hernia repair from 2013 to 2019. Median differences in Hernia-Related Quality of Life Survey (HerQLes) summary scores at baseline, 30-days, 6-months, and 1 year post operatively were compared in four age categories (18–40, 40–64, 65–75, 76 +) using multivariable regression. Secondary outcomes included major post-operative complications and mortality.ResultsOf 6681 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 13.5% were 18–40, 55.8% were 41–64, 25.2% were 65–75, and 5% were 76 + . Patients in the 65–75 age group and those over 76 had higher mean baseline HerQLes scores (51.7 and 60.8) compared to those in the 18–40 and 41–64 groups (45 and 43.3, p < 0.01). Patients 65–75 had smaller increases in HerQLes scores at 30 days (6.7) compared to patients in the younger age groups (11.7 for 18–40; 8.3 for 41–64) and the oldest age group (8.3, p < 0.01). However, patients in the older age groups had higher overall median 1 year HerQles Scores (66.7 for 65–75; 78.3 for 76 +) compared to patients in the 18–40 and 41–64 age groups (65 and 58.3, p < 0.01). On multivariable analysis, HerQLes scores at 30 days post-surgery were decreased for patients in the 41–64 (−3.14, CE −5.89, −0.04, p = 0.03) and 65–75 (−4.53; CE −7.65, −1.41, p < 0.01) groups compared to the youngest age group, while those over 76 had no effect.ConclusionOlder adults undergoing ventral hernia repair demonstrate equal gains in hernia-related quality of life compared to younger patients and actually report higher quality of life scores at 30 days, 6 months and, 1 year post-surgery.

Background Acute Care Surgery (ACS) was developed as a structured, team-based approach to providing round-the-clock emergency general surgery (EGS) care for adult patients needing treatment for diseases such as cholecystitis, gastrointestinal perforation, and necrotizing fasciitis. Lacking any prior evidence on optimizing outcomes for EGS patients, current implementation of ACS models has been idiosyncratic. We sought to use a Donabedian approach to elucidate potential EGS structures and processes that might be associated with improved outcomes as an initial step in designing the optimal model of ACS care for EGS patients. Methods We developed and implemented a national survey of hospital-level EGS structures and processes by surveying surgeons or chief medical officers regarding hospital-level structures and processes that directly or indirectly impacted EGS care delivery in 2015. These responses were then anonymously linked to 2015 data from the American Hospital Association (AHA) annual survey, Medicare Provider Analysis and Review claims (MedPAR), 17 State Inpatient Databases (SIDs) using AHA unique identifiers (AHAID). This allowed us to combine hospital-level data, as reported in our survey or to the AHA, to patient-level data in an effort to further examine the role of EGS structures and processes on EGS outcomes. We describe the multi-step, iterative process utilizing the Donabedian framework for quality measurement that serves as a foundation for later work in this project. Results Hospitals that responded to the survey were primarily non-governmental and located in urban settings. A plurality of respondent hospitals had fewer than 100 inpatient beds. A minority of the hospitals had medical school affiliations. Discussion Our results will enable us to develop a measure of preparedness for delivering EGS care in the US, provide guidance for regionalized care models for EGS care, tiering of ACS programs based on the robustness of their EGS structures and processes and the quality of their outcomes, and formulate triage guidelines based on patient risk factors and severity of EGS disease. Conclusions Our work provides a template for team science applicable to research efforts combining primary data collection (i.e., that derived from our survey) with existing national data sources (i.e., SIDs and MedPAR).

The efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy (NT) versus surgery first (SF) for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains controversial. A random-effects meta-analysis of only prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing NT versus SF for potentially resectable (PR) or borderline resectable (BR) PDAC was performed. Among six RCTs including 850 patients, 411 (48.3%) received NT and 439 (51.6%) SF. In all included trials, NT was gemcitabine-based: four using chemoradiation and two chemotherapy alone. Based on an intention-to-treat analysis, NT resulted in improved overall survival (OS) compared to SF (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61–0.86). This effect was independent of anatomic classification (PR: hazard ratio (HR) 0.73, 95% CI 0.59–0.91; BR: HR 0.51 95% CI 0.28–0.93) or NT type (chemoradiation: HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61–0.98; chemotherapy alone: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54–0.87). Overall resection rate was similar (risk ratio (RR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.82–1.04, I2 = 39.0%) but NT increased the likelihood of a margin-negative (R0) resection (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.18–1.93, I2 = 0%) and having negative lymph nodes (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.47–2.91, I2 = 12.3%). In this meta-analysis of prospective RCTs, NT significantly improved OS in an intention-to-treat fashion, compared with SF for localized PDAC. Randomized controlled trials using contemporary multi-agent chemotherapy will be needed to confirm these findings and to define the optimal NT regimen.

PurposeNeoadjuvant therapy (NT) is increasingly being offered to patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prior to surgical resection. However, the experience and quality of life (QOL) of patients undergoing NT are poorly understood.MethodsA systematic review of the Cinahl, Embase, Medline, Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was conducted to evaluate the available literature pertaining to the experience and QOL of patient’s undergoing NT for PDAC.ResultsAmong 6041 articles screened, only six met criteria for full-text review including three prospective clinical trials of NT with QOL secondary endpoints. Overall, global QOL during or following NT did not significantly change from baseline. Pain scores seemed to improve during NT while the impact of NT on physical functioning varied across studies. No studies were identified evaluating other aspects of the patient experience.ConclusionAlthough NT appears to have a minor impact on the QOL of patients with PDAC, this systematic review identified significant evidence gaps in the literature. A protocol of a prospective observational cohort study utilizing a digital smartphone app that aims to evaluate the patient experience and longitudinal QOL of patients with PDAC undergoing NT is presented.

Elderly Americans are at increased risk of head trauma, particularly fall related. The effect of warfarin on head trauma outcomes remains controversial. Medicare beneficiaries with head injuries from 2009 to 2011 were identified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 code. Preinjury warfarin use was determined using Part D claims. Multiple logistic regression models determined the association of preinjury warfarin on need for hospitalization, intensive care unit care, and occurrence of intracranial hemorrhage. Association between warfarin and in-hospital mortality was assessed using a Cox proportional hazard model. Of 11,078 head injured patients, 5.2% were injured while on warfarin. Preinjury warfarin increased the odds of intracranial hemorrhage by 40% and doubled the risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Warfarin at the time of head injury increases the risk of adverse outcomes in Medicare beneficiaries with head injuries. Caution should be used when initiating anticoagulation in elderly Americans at risk for trauma.

BackgroundPrehospital transport time has been directly related to mortality for hemorrhaging trauma patients. ‘Trauma deserts’ were previously defined as being outside of a 5-mile radial distance of an urban trauma center. We postulated that the true ‘desert’ should be based on transport time rather than transport distance.MethodsUsing the Chicagoland area that was used to describe ‘trauma deserts,’ a sequential process to query a commercial travel optimization product to map transport times over coordinates that covered the entire urban area at a particular time of day. This produces a heat map representing prehospital transport times. Travel times were then limited to 15 minutes to represent a temporally based map of transport capabilities. This was repeated during high and low traffic times and for centers across the city.ResultsWe demonstrated that the temporally based map for transport to a trauma center in an urban center differs significantly from the radial distance to the trauma center. Primary effects were proximity to highways and the downtown area. Transportation to centers were significantly different when time was considered instead of distance (p<0.001). We were further able to map variations in traffic patterns and thus transport times by time of day. The truly ‘closest’ trauma center by time changed based on time of day and was not always the closest hospital by distance.DiscussionAs the crow flies is not how the ambulance drives. This novel technique of dynamically mapping transport times can be used to create accurate trauma deserts in an urban setting with multiple trauma centers. Further, this technique can be used to quantify the potential benefit or detriment of adding or removing firehouses or trauma centers.