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The authors of this study genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 18 diabetes-associated loci in participants of the Framingham Offspring Study. A genotype score based on these risk alleles predicted new cases of diabetes but resulted in only a slightly better prediction of risk than knowledge of common risk factors alone. In this study, a genotype score based on 18 diabetes-associated loci predicted new cases of diabetes but resulted in only a slightly better prediction of risk than knowledge of common risk factors alone. Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major health problem worldwide. 1 Fortunately, its development can be prevented in many instances, 2 and persons at risk can be readily identified with the measurement of a few common risk factors. 3 – 5 Type 2 diabetes is heritable, with a risk for people with familial diabetes as compared with those without familial diabetes that is increased by a factor of 2 to 6. 6 , 7 Recent genetic association studies have provided convincing evidence that several novel loci are associated with the risk of diabetes, 8 – 13 each with a 5 to 37% increase in the relative odds of . . .

To identify the most important pretreatment characteristics and changes in psychological and behavioral factors that predict weight outcomes in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). Approximately 25% of DPP lifestyle intervention participants (n = 274) completed questionnaires to assess weight history and psychological and behavioral factors at baseline and 6 months after completion of the 16-session core curriculum. The change in variables from baseline to 6 months was assessed with t tests. Multivariate models using hierarchical logistic regression assessed the association of weight outcomes at end of study with each demographic, weight loss history, psychological, and behavioral factor. At end of study, 40.5% had achieved the DPP 7% weight loss goal. Several baseline measures (older age, race, older age when first overweight, fewer self-implemented weight loss attempts, greater exercise self-efficacy, greater dietary restraint, fewer fat-related dietary behaviors, more sedentary activity level) were independent predictors of successful end-of-study weight loss with the DPP lifestyle program. The DPP core curriculum resulted in significant improvements in many psychological and behavioral targets. Changes in low-fat diet self-efficacy and dietary restraint skills predicted better long-term weight loss, and the association of low-fat diet self-efficacy with weight outcomes was explained by dietary behaviors. Health care providers who translate the DPP lifestyle intervention should be aware of pretreatment characteristics that may hamper or enhance weight loss, consider prioritizing strategies to improve low-fat diet self-efficacy and dietary restraint skills, and examine whether taking these actions improves weight loss outcomes.

Background and Objective To characterize health care use and costs among new Medicaid enrollees before and during the COVID pandemic. Results can help Medicaid non-expansion states understand health care use and costs of new enrollees in a period of enrollment growth. Research Design Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of North Carolina Medicaid claims data (January 1, 2018 - August 31, 2020). We used modified Poisson and ordinary least squares regression analysis to estimate health care use and costs as a function of personal characteristics and enrollment during COVID. Using data on existing enrollees before and during COVID, we projected the extent to which changes in outcomes among new enrollees during COVID were pandemic-related. Subjects 340,782 new enrollees pre-COVID (January 2018 – December 2019) and 56,428 new enrollees during COVID (March 2020 – June 2020). Measures We observed new enrollees for 60-days after enrollment to identify emergency department (ED) visits, nonemergent ED visits, primary care visits, potentially-avoidable hospitalizations, dental visits, and health care costs. Results New Medicaid enrollees during COVID were less likely to have an ED visit (-46 % [95 % CI: -48 %, -43 %]), nonemergent ED visit (-52 % [95 % CI: -56 %, -48 %]), potentially-avoidable hospitalization (-52 % [95 % CI: -60 %, -43 %]), primary care visit (-34 % [95 % CI: -36 %, -33 %]), or dental visit (-36 % [95 % CI: -41 %, -30 %]). They were also less likely to incur any health care costs (-29 % [95 % CI: -30 %, -28 %]), and their total costs were 8 % lower [95 % CI: -12 %, -4 %]. Depending on the outcome, COVID explained between 34 % and 100 % of these reductions. Conclusions New Medicaid enrollees during COVID used significantly less care than new enrollees pre-COVID. Most of the reduction stems from pandemic-related changes in supply and demand, but the profile of new enrollees before versus during COVID also differed.

The degree to which clinical outcomes are worsened in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with heart failure (HF) compared with those without HF is not well described. This study aimed to determine the impact of HF on clinical outcomes in patients with AF. We analyzed data from Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation, a national registry of 10,135 patients with AF to determine associations between HF and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and outcomes, including stroke, mortality, and hospitalization using Cox multivariable modeling. Atrial Fibrillation Effect on Quality-of-Life Questionnaire (AFEQT) scores between groups were also compared. Overall, 33% (n = 3,203) of patients had HF; of these 33% (n = 985) had LVEF ≤40%. Oral anticoagulation was prescribed more commonly in patients with HF (81% vs 74%). Compared with patients without HF, those with HF had similar rate of stroke (1.28 vs 0.88 per 100-patient years, hazard ratio [HR] 1.11, confidence interval [CI] 0.83 to 1.48, p = 0.47) but higher mortality (HR 1.69, CI 1.49 to 1.92, p <0.001) and hospitalization (HR 1.31, CI 1.23 to 1.39, p <0.0001). Patients with LVEF ≤40% had similar stroke risk (HR 1.06, CI 0.67 to 1.67) but higher mortality (HR 2.06, CI 1.74 to 2.44) and hospitalization (HR 1.38, CI 1.25 to 1.51). AFEQT overall score was significantly lower (76.9 vs 83.3, p <0.0001) in patients with HF. In conclusion, HF was associated with increased risk of death and hospitalization and worse quality of life, but similar rates of thromboembolism regardless of LVEF among patients with AF. These findings highlight the need to develop therapeutic strategies targeting functional status and survival for patients with HF and AF.

Several non–vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) alternatives to warfarin are available for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to describe the factors associated with selection of NOACs versus warfarin in patients with new onset AF. The ORBIT-AF II study is a national, US, prospective, observational, cohort study of anticoagulation treatment in patients with AF receiving NOACs or warfarin in the United States from 2013 to 2016. We measured factors associated with oral anticoagulant selection in 4,670 patients recently diagnosed with AF. At baseline, 1,169 (25%) patients were started on warfarin and 3,501 (75%) on NOACs: of these latter, 259 (6%) were started on dabigatran, 1858 (40%) on rivaroxaban, and 1384 (30%) on apixaban. Those receiving NOACs were slightly younger patients (median age 71 vs 72, P<.0001); were less likely to have prior stroke (5.3% vs 8.6%; P<.0001) or prior bleeding (2.7% vs 4.4%; P=.005); had better kidney function (mean estimated glomerular filtration rate 91 mL/min vs 80 mL/min, P<.0001); and had fewer patients at high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc score [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75years, Diabetes mellitus, Prior stroke, transient ischemic attack {TIA}, or thromboembolism,Vascular disease, Age 65–74years, Sex category {female}] ≥2 in 86% vs 93%; P<.0001). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with NOAC selection versus warfarin included renal function, prior stroke or valve replacement, rhythm control AF management strategy, treatment by a cardiologist, and higher patient education level. In contemporary clinical practice, up to three-fourths of patients with new-onset AF are now initially treated with a NOAC for stroke prevention. Those selected for NOAC treatment had lower stroke and bleeding risk profiles, were more likely treated by cardiologists, and had higher socioeconomic status. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01701817

OBJECTIVE: To test if knowledge of type 2 diabetes genetic variants improves disease prediction. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We tested 40 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diabetes in 3,471 Framingham Offspring Study subjects followed over 34 years using pooled logistic regression models stratified by age (<50 years, diabetes cases = 144; or ≥50 years, diabetes cases = 302). Models included clinical risk factors and a 40-SNP weighted genetic risk score. RESULTS: In people <50 years of age, the clinical risk factors model C-statistic was 0.908; the 40-SNP score increased it to 0.911 (P = 0.3; net reclassification improvement (NRI): 10.2%, P = 0.001). In people ≥50 years of age, the C-statistics without and with the score were 0.883 and 0.884 (P = 0.2; NRI: 0.4%). The risk per risk allele was higher in people <50 than ≥50 years of age (24 vs. 11%; P value for age interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of common genetic variation appropriately reclassifies younger people for type 2 diabetes risk beyond clinical risk factors but not older people.

This study assesses demographic and clinical variables associated with perioperative and late stroke in diabetes mellitus patients after multivessel coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Future Revascularization Evaluation in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease (FREEDOM) is the largest randomized trial of diabetic patients undergoing multivessel CABG. FREEDOM patients had improved survival free of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke and increased overall survival after CABG compared to percutaneous intervention. However, the stroke rate was greater following CABG than percutaneous intervention. We studied predictors of stroke in CABG-treated patients analyzing separately overall, perioperative (≤30 days after surgery), and late (>30 days after surgery) stroke. For long-term outcomes (overall stroke and late stroke), Cox proportional hazards regression was used, accounting for time to event, and logistic regression was used for perioperative stroke. Independent perioperative stroke predictors were previous stroke (odds ratio [OR] 6.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43 to 33.96; p = 0.02), warfarin use (OR 10.26, 95% CI 1.10 to 96.03; p = 0.02), and surgery outside the United States or Canada (OR 9.81, 95% CI 1.28 to 75.40; p = 0.03). Independent late stroke predictors: renal insufficiency (hazard ratio [HR] 3.57, 95% CI 1.01 to 12.64; p = 0.048), baseline low-density lipoprotein ≥105 mg/dl (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.19 to 9.02; p = 0.02), and baseline diastolic blood pressure (each 1 mm Hg increase reduces stroke hazard by 5%; HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.99; p = 0.03). There was no overlap between predictors of perioperative versus late stroke. In conclusion, late post-CABG strokes were associated with well-described risk factors. Nearly half of the strokes were perioperative. Independent risk factors for perioperative stroke: previous stroke, previous warfarin use, and CABG performed outside the United States or Canada.

Assessments of stroke and bleeding risks are essential to selecting oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to assess outcomes according to physician assessed risk, with comparison to empirical risk scores. This was a prospective, observational study of 9,715 outpatients with AF enrolled in ORBIT-AF, a US national registry. Stroke and bleeding risks were quantified by physician assignment, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc stroke scores, and ATRIA and HAS-BLED bleeding scores. Outcomes were stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding during a median follow-up of 28 months. Physician-assigned risk was associated with thromboembolic events: low risk (0.71 per 100 patient-years [95% CI 0.56-0.91], n=3,991), intermediate risk (0.98 [95% CI 0.79-1.20], n=4,148), and high risk (1.84 [95% CI 1.43-2.37], n=1,576, P<.0001), and major bleeding: low (3.43 [95% CI 3.07-3.82], n=4,250), intermediate (4.55 [95% CI 4.03-5.15], n=2,702), and high (5.76 [95% CI 4.42-7.50], n=468; P<.0001). Discrimination of stroke risk was similar with CHADS2 (c=0.59, 95% CI 0.57-0.61) vs physician assessment (c=0.58, 95% CI 0.55-0.62). Among patients on oral anticoagulation, bleeding risk discrimination was higher with ATRIA (c=0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.65) and HAS-BLED (c=0.60, 95% CI 0.59-0.62) than with physician assessment (0.55, 95% CI 0.53-0.57). Physician-assessed risk categories did not add significantly to empirical risk scores, in Cox models for outcomes (Padjusted>.05 for all physician assessments vs Padjusted<.05 for empirical scores). Physician-assigned risk showed a graded relationship with outcomes, and both physician-based and empirical scores yielded only moderate discrimination. Although empirical scores provided valuable risk stratification information (with or without physician judgment), physician assessment added little to existing scores. These data support the use of empirical scores for stroke and bleeding risk stratification, and the need for novel approaches to risk stratification in this population.

Associations of early creatine phosphokinase-MB (CK-MB) elevation and new Q waves and their association with cardiovascular death (CVD) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been reported, but this association has not been studied in a large population of patients with diabetes mellitus. In this study, we examine the association of periprocedural CK-MB elevations and new Q waves with CVD in the Future Revascularization Evaluation in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease trial. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relation of CK-MB elevations and new Q waves in the first 24 hours after procedure and their relation to CVD; logistic regression was used to assess odds ratios of these variables. Hazard ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and p values associated with Wald chi-square test are reported. CK-MB elevation in first 24 hours after procedure was independently associated with CVD. CVD hazard increased by 6% (p <0.001) with each multiple of CK-MB above the upper reference limit (URL); odds of new post-CABG Q waves increased by a factor of 1.08 (p <0.001); at 7× CK-MB URL, HR was >2. CK-MB URL multiples of 7, 12, and 15 were associated with new Q-wave odds ratios of 9, 16, and 27 times, respectively (p ≤0.001, C-statistic >0.70). New Q waves were independently associated with survival in the multivariate model only when CK-MB was excluded (p = 0.01). In conclusion, independent associations included (1) CVD and early post-CABG CK-MB elevation; (2) new Q waves with early post-CABG CK-MB elevation; (3) CVD with new Q waves only when CK-MB elevation is excluded from analysis.