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Shifts in species ranges are a predicted and realized effect of global climate change; however, few studies have addressed the rates and consequence of such shifts, particularly in marine systems. Given ecological similarities between shifting and introduced species, we examined how our understanding of range shifts may be informed by the more established study of non-native species introductions. Marine systems world-wide. Database and citation searches were used to identify 129 marine species experiencing range shifts and to determine spread rates and impacts on recipient communities. Analyses of spread rates were based on studies for which post-establishment spread was reported in linear distance. The sizes of the effects of community impacts of shifting species were compared with those of functionally similar introduced species having ecologically similar impacts. Our review and meta-analyses revealed that: (1) 75% of the range shifts found through the database search were in the poleward direction, consistent with climate change scenarios, (2) spread rates of range shifts were lower than those of introductions, (3) shifting species spread over an order of magnitude faster in marine than in terrestrial systems, and (4) directions of community effects were largely negative and magnitudes were often similar for shifters and introduced species; however, this comparison was limited by few data for range-shifting species. Although marine range shifts are likely to proceed more slowly than marine introductions, the community-level effects could be as great, and in the same direction, as those of introduced species. Because it is well-established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change. Regardless of habitat, consideration of range shifts in the context of invasion biology can improve our understanding of what to expect from climate change-driven shifts as well as provide tools for formal assessment of risks to community structure and function.

Invasive species are predicted to be more successful than natives as temperatures increase with climate change. However, few studies have examined the physiological mechanisms that theoretically underlie this differential success. Because correlative evidence suggests that invasiveness is related to the width of a species' latitudinal range, it has been assumed--but largely untested--that range width predicts breadth of habitat temperatures and physiological thermotolerances. In this study, we use empirical data from a marine community as a case study to address the hypotheses that (1) geographic temperature range attributes are related to temperature tolerance, leading to greater eurythermality in invasive species, and (2) stress protein expression is a subcellular mechanism that could contribute to differences in thermotolerance. We examined three native and six invasive species common in the subtidal epibenthic communities of California, USA. We assessed thermotolerance by exposing individuals to temperatures between 14°C and 31°C and determining the temperature lethal to 50% of individuals (LT(50)) after a 24 hour exposure. We found a strong positive relationship between the LT(50) and both maximum habitat temperatures and the breadth of temperatures experience across the species' ranges. In addition, of the species in our study, invasives tended to inhabit broader habitat temperature ranges and higher maximum temperatures. Stress protein expression may contribute to these differences: the more thermotolerant, invasive species Diplosoma listerianum expressed higher levels of a 70-kDa heat-shock protein than the less thermotolerant, native Distaplia occidentalis for which levels declined sharply above the LT(50). Our data highlight differences between native and invasive species with respect to organismal and cellular temperature tolerances. Future studies should address, across a broader phylogenetic and ecosystem scope, whether this physiological mechanism has facilitated the current success of invasive species and could lead to greater success of invasives than native species as global warming continues.

Globally, species are undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. However, the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts are not well understood. In southern California, the predatory whelk Mexacanthina lugubris has undergone a northward range shift of more than 100 km in the past four decades. We traced the history of the whelk’s range shift and assessed potential effects using an integrated approach, consisting of field surveys, as well as feeding and thermotolerance experiments. We found that at sites where Mexacanthina and native species co-occurred, native whelks distributions peaked lower in the intertidal. In laboratory experiments, we found that the presence of Mexacanthina led to reduced growth in native whelks (Acanthinucella spirata). Additionally, the range-shifting whelk was able to tolerate higher temperatures than common native species (A. spirata and Nucella emarginata), suggesting further impacts as a result of climate warming. Many species are likely to undergo range shifts as a coping mechanism for changing climatic conditions. However, communities are unlikely to shift as a whole due to species-specific responses. By studying the impacts of range-shifting species, like Mexacanthina, we can better understand how climate change will alter existing community structure and composition.

We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor, Bodega Bay, California, USA. First, we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives, suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second, we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3°C and +4.5°C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species, species origins, and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance, survival, and growth results, we predict that, as ocean temperatures increase, native species will decrease in abundance, whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally, invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past ∼40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species.

Global biodiversity is undergoing a grand reshuffling with species across taxa and biomes shifting their ranges in response to climate change. Research on the ecological impacts of range‐shifting species has prioritized linking the traits of the range‐shifting species themselves to impacts, with studies giving more limited attention to the characteristics of the recipient community and its prey composition. Understanding how community composition and structure can alter the impact of novel species via prey preferences is important for predicting and managing ecological changes. We used the range‐shifting predatory whelk Mexacanthina lugubris as a case study to investigate how prey composition might influence prey preferences and overall range shift impacts on prey species. Specifically, we hypothesized that Mexacanthina lugubris' consumptive effects on a single prey species would be modified by the presence (or abundance) of a second prey species. We tested this hypothesis via a field experiment in southern California, where we caged whelks at a gradient of densities and observed their predation on mussels, barnacles living on bare rock, and barnacles living on mussels over 8 weeks. We found that Mexacanthina lugubris consumed barnacles on bare rock preferentially before consuming barnacles on mussels and mussels themselves. Our findings demonstrate that the presence of mussels (which act as both habitat and prey) can mitigate the overall impact of the range‐shifting predator by altering accessibility of barnacle prey. This context‐dependent attenuation of predator impacts highlights a form of apparent facilitation among prey and underscores the importance of considering recipient community traits when assessing or managing the ecological consequences of range‐shifting species.

Predicting which populations and species will persist (i.e. avoid extinction and continue to exist) in the face of climate change requires an understanding of mechanisms that allow species to cope with altered environmental conditions. When processes of tolerance, acclimation, and adaptation are insufficient to allow persistence in situ, redistribution is required for population or species persistence. Here, I review evidence that directional flows of water and air have the potential to restrict species' range boundaries under ambient conditions, the spread of introduced species, and the redistribution of native species under changing climatic conditions. I develop the hypothesis that flow patterns, such as the speed and directionality (i.e. poleward vs equatorward) of asymmetric air and water currents, may need to be considered when assessing the vulnerability of populations and species to climate change. To the degree that directional flows are found to limit redistribution, there may be disproportionate losses of diversity where the dominant flow direction opposes that of shifting climate space. Within this context, I highlight flow conditions and life-history traits that could help the most passively-dispersed species redistribute to track changing climate. These predictions merit further examination in order to better anticipate which populations, species, and associated communities are likely to persist under climate change.

Species with broader geographical ranges are expected to be ecological generalists, while species with higher heat tolerances may be relatively competitive at more extreme and increasing temperatures. Thus, both traits are expected to relate to increased survival during transport to new regions of the globe, and once there, establishment and spread. Here, we explore these expectations using datasets of latitudinal range breadth and heat tolerance in freshwater and marine invertebrates and fishes. After accounting for the latitude and hemisphere of each species’ native range, we find that species introduced to freshwater systems have broader geographical ranges in comparison to native species. Moreover, introduced species are more heat tolerant than related native species collected from the same habitats. We further test for differences in range breadth and heat tolerance in relation to invasion success by comparing species that have established geographically restricted versus extensive introduced distributions. We find that geographical range size is positively related to invasion success in freshwater species only. However, heat tolerance is implicated as a trait correlated to widespread occurrence of introduced populations in both freshwater and marine systems. Our results emphasize the importance of formal risk assessments before moving heat tolerant species to novel locations.

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are amongst the most significant drivers of species extinction and ecosystem degradation, causing negative impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being. InvasiBES, a project funded by BiodivERsA-Belmont Forum for 2019–2021, will use data and models across scales, habitats and species to understand and anticipate the multi-faceted impacts of IAS and to provide tools for their management. Using Alien Species Narratives as reference, we will design future intervention scenarios focused on prevention, control and eradication of IAS in Europe and the United States, through a participatory process bringing together the expertise of scientists and stakeholders. We will also adapt current impact assessment protocols to assess both the detrimental and beneficial impacts of IAS on biodiversity and ecosystem services. This information will then be combined with maps of the potential distribution of Invasive Species of Interest in Europe under current and future climate-change scenarios. Likewise, we will anticipate areas under risk of invasion by range-shifting plants of concern in the US. Finally, focusing on three local-scale studies that cover a range of habitats (freshwater, terrestrial and marine), invasive species (plants and animals) and ecosystem services (supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural), we will use empirical field data to quantify the real-world impacts of IAS on biodiversity and ecosystem services and calculate indicators of ecosystem recovery after the invader is removed. Spatial planning tools (InVEST) will be used to evaluate the costs and benefits of species-specific intervention scenarios at the regional scale. Data, models and maps, developed throughout the project, will serve to build scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services that are relevant to underpin management of IAS at multiple scales.

It is critical to understand how human modifications of Earth’s ecosystems are influencing ecosystem functioning, including net and gross community production ( NCP and GCP , respectively) and community respiration ( CR ). These responses are often estimated by measuring oxygen production in the light ( NCP ) and consumption in the dark ( CR ), which can then be combined to estimate GCP . However, the method used to create “dark” conditions—either experimental darkening during the day or taking measurements at night—could result in different estimates of respiration and production, potentially affecting our ability to make integrative predictions. We tested this possibility by measuring oxygen concentrations under daytime ambient light conditions, in darkened tide pools during the day, and during nighttime low tides. We made measurements every 1–3 months over one year in southeastern Alaska. Daytime respiration rates were substantially higher than those measured at night, associated with higher temperature and oxygen levels during the day and leading to major differences in estimates of GCP calculated using daytime versus nighttime measurements. Our results highlight the potential importance of measuring respiration rates during both day and night to account for effects of temperature and oxygen—especially in shallow-water, constrained systems—with implications for understanding the impacts of global change on ecosystem metabolism.

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion. Globalization facilitates the spread of invasive alien species, while environmental change can ease invasion. Here, Early et al . identify vulnerable regions globally and evaluate capacity in vulnerable countries to prevent invasions arising from sources such as air travel, horticulture, and pet trade.