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As climate change accelerates, human societies face growing exposure to disasters and stress, highlighting the urgent need for effective early warning systems (EWS). These systems monitor, assess, and communicate risks to support resilience and sustainable development, but challenges remain in hazard forecasting, risk communication, and decision-making. This perspective explores the transformative potential of integrated Artificial Intelligence (AI) modeling. We highlight the role of AI in developing multi-hazard EWSs that integrate Meteorological and Geospatial foundation models (FMs) for impact prediction. A user-centric approach with intuitive interfaces and community feedback is emphasized to improve crisis management. To address climate risk complexity, we advocate for causal AI models to avoid spurious predictions and stress the need for responsible AI practices. We highlight the FATES (Fairness, Accountability, Transparency, Ethics, and Sustainability) principles as essential for equitable and trustworthy AI-based Early Warning Systems for all. We further advocate for decadal EWSs, leveraging climate ensembles and generative methods to enable long-term, spatially resolved forecasts for proactive climate adaptation. In the era of climate change, human societies face growing exposure to disasters and complex climate risks. This perspective explores the transformative potential of integrated Artificial Intelligence in developing multi-hazard Early Warning Systems for all.

In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address the global threat of climate change. Here, we consider climate change applications, and review the ability of AI technologies to better quantify climate change-induced hazards, impacts and risks, and address key challenges in this domain. We focus on three application areas: data-driven modeling, enabling uncertainty quantification, and leveraging geospatial big data. For these, we provide examples from flood-related applications to illustrate the advantages of AI, in comparison to alternative methods, whilst also considering its limitations. We conclude that by streamlining the process of translating weather and climate data into actionable information, facilitated by a suitable technology framework, AI can play a key role in building climate change resilience.

Large enterprises face a crucial imperative to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially goal 13, which focuses on combating climate change and its impacts. To mitigate the effects of climate change, reducing enterprise Scope 3 (supply chain emissions) is vital, as it accounts for more than 90\\% of total emission inventories. However, tracking Scope 3 emissions proves challenging, as data must be collected from thousands of upstream and downstream suppliers.To address the above mentioned challenges, we propose a first-of-a-kind framework that uses domain-adapted NLP foundation models to estimate Scope 3 emissions, by utilizing financial transactions as a proxy for purchased goods and services. We compared the performance of the proposed framework with the state-of-art text classification models such as TF-IDF, word2Vec, and Zero shot learning. Our results show that the domain-adapted foundation model outperforms state-of-the-art text mining techniques and performs as well as a subject matter expert (SME). The proposed framework could accelerate the Scope 3 estimation at Enterprise scale and will help to take appropriate climate actions to achieve SDG 13.

Understanding the causal interaction of time series variables can contribute to time series data analysis for many real-world applications, such as climate forecasting and extreme weather alerts. However, causal relationships are difficult to be fully observed in real-world complex settings, such as spatial-temporal data from deployed sensor networks. Therefore, to capture fine-grained causal relations among spatial-temporal variables for further a more accurate and reliable time series analysis, we first design a conceptual fine-grained causal model named TBN Granger Causality, which adds time-respecting Bayesian Networks to the previous time-lagged Neural Granger Causality to offset the instantaneous effects. Second, we propose an end-to-end deep generative model called TacSas, which discovers TBN Granger Causality in a generative manner to help forecast time series data and detect possible anomalies during the forecast. For evaluations, besides the causality discovery benchmark Lorenz-96, we also test TacSas on climate benchmark ERA5 for climate forecasting and the extreme weather benchmark of NOAA for extreme weather alerts.

We study both stream-based and pool-based active learning with neural network approximations. A recent line of works proposed bandit-based approaches that transformed active learning into a bandit problem, achieving both theoretical and empirical success. However, the performance and computational costs of these methods may be susceptible to the number of classes, denoted as \\(K\\), due to this transformation. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the question: \"How can we mitigate the adverse impacts of \\(K\\) while retaining the advantages of principled exploration and provable performance guarantees in active learning?\" To tackle this challenge, we propose two algorithms based on the newly designed exploitation and exploration neural networks for stream-based and pool-based active learning. Subsequently, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for both algorithms in a non-parametric setting, demonstrating a slower error-growth rate concerning \\(K\\) for the proposed approaches. We use extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithms, which consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial to improve its resilience. Representing mid to long-term seasonal climate forecasts is challenging as seasonal climate predictions are uncertain, and encoding spatio-temporal relationship of climate forecasts with demand is complex. We propose a novel modeling framework that efficiently encodes seasonal climate predictions to provide robust and reliable time-series forecasting for supply chain functions. The encoding framework enables effective learning of latent representations -- be it uncertain seasonal climate prediction or other time-series data (e.g., buyer patterns) -- via a modular neural network architecture. Our extensive experiments indicate that learning such representations to model seasonal climate forecast results in an error reduction of approximately 13\\% to 17\\% across multiple real-world data sets compared to existing demand forecasting methods.

Class imbalance is prevalent in real-world node classification tasks and poses great challenges for graph learning models. Most existing studies are rooted in a class-rebalancing (CR) perspective and address class imbalance with class-wise reweighting or resampling. In this work, we approach the root cause of class-imbalance bias from an topological paradigm. Specifically, we theoretically reveal two fundamental phenomena in the graph topology that greatly exacerbate the predictive bias stemming from class imbalance. On this basis, we devise a lightweight topological augmentation framework BAT to mitigate the class-imbalance bias without class rebalancing. Being orthogonal to CR, BAT can function as an efficient plug-and-play module that can be seamlessly combined with and significantly boost existing CR techniques. Systematic experiments on real-world imbalanced graph learning tasks show that BAT can deliver up to 46.27% performance gain and up to 72.74% bias reduction over existing techniques. Code, examples, and documentations are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/BAT.

Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation, time attributes, etc. Recently, much research attention has been paid to the climate benchmarks. In addition to the most common task of weather forecasting, several pioneering benchmark works are proposed for extending the modality, such as domain-specific applications like tropical cyclone intensity prediction and flash flood damage estimation, or climate statement and confidence level in the format of natural language. To further motivate the artificial general intelligence development for climate science, in this paper, we first contribute a multi-modal climate benchmark, i.e., ClimateBench-M, which aligns (1) the time series climate data from ERA5, (2) extreme weather events data from NOAA, and (3) satellite image data from NASA HLS based on a unified spatial-temporal granularity. Second, under each data modality, we also propose a simple but strong generative method that could produce competitive performance in weather forecasting, thunderstorm alerts, and crop segmentation tasks in the proposed ClimateBench-M. The data and code of ClimateBench-M are publicly available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/ClimateBench-M.

The application of models to assess the risk of the physical impacts of weather and climate and their subsequent consequences for society and business is of the utmost importance in our changing climate. The operation of such models is historically bespoke and constrained to specific compute infrastructure, driving datasets and predefined configurations. These constraints introduce challenges with scaling model runs and putting the models in the hands of interested users. Here we present a cloud-based modular framework for the deployment and operation of geospatial models, initially applied to climate impacts. The Climate Impact Modelling Frameworks (CIMF) enables the deployment of modular workflows in a dynamic and flexible manner. Users can specify workflow components in a streamlined manner, these components can then be easily organised into different configurations to assess risk in different ways and at different scales. This also enables different models (physical simulation or machine learning models) and workflows to be connected to produce combined risk assessment. Flood modelling is used as an end-to-end example to demonstrate the operation of CIMF.

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government institutions, and meteorological agencies in building digital twins of the Earth. Recent approaches using transformers, physics-informed machine learning, and graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on relatively narrow spatiotemporal scales and specific tasks. With the recent success of generative artificial intelligence (AI) using pre-trained transformers for language modeling and vision with prompt engineering and fine-tuning, we are now moving towards generalizable AI. In particular, we are witnessing the rise of AI foundation models that can perform competitively on multiple domain-specific downstream tasks. Despite this progress, we are still in the nascent stages of a generalizable AI model for global Earth system models, regional climate models, and mesoscale weather models. Here, we review current state-of-the-art AI approaches, primarily from transformer and operator learning literature in the context of meteorology. We provide our perspective on criteria for success towards a family of foundation models for nowcasting and forecasting weather and climate predictions. We also discuss how such models can perform competitively on downstream tasks such as downscaling (super-resolution), identifying conditions conducive to the occurrence of wildfires, and predicting consequential meteorological phenomena across various spatiotemporal scales such as hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. In particular, we examine current AI methodologies and contend they have matured enough to design and implement a weather foundation model.