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Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.

The non-technical handbook for cyber security risk management Solving Cyber Risk distills a decade of research into a practical framework for cyber security. Blending statistical data and cost information with research into the culture, psychology, and business models of the hacker community, this book providesbusiness executives, policy-makers, and individualswith a deeper understanding of existing future threats, and an action plan for safeguarding their organizations. Key Risk Indicators reveal vulnerabilities based on organization type, IT infrastructure and existing security measures, while expert discussion from leading cyber risk specialists details practical, real-world methods of risk reduction and mitigation. By the nature of the business, your organization's customer database is packed with highly sensitive information that is essentially hacker-bait, and even a minor flaw in security protocol could spell disaster. This book takes you deep into the cyber threat landscape to show you how to keep your data secure. * Understand who is carrying out cyber-attacks, and why * Identify your organization's risk of attack and vulnerability to damage * Learn the most cost-effective risk reduction measures * Adopt a new cyber risk assessment and quantification frameworkbased on techniques used bythe insurance industry By applying risk management principles to cyber security, non-technical leadership gains a greater understanding of the types of threat, level of threat, and level of investment needed to fortify the organization against attack. Just because you have not been hit does not mean your data is safe, and hackers rely on their targets' complacence to help maximize their haul. Solving Cyber Risk gives you a concrete action plan for implementing top-notch preventative measures before you're forced to implement damage control.

Asia has the fastest growing population and economy, but it is also the most disaster‐prone region in the world. Resilience to disaster impacts from natural hazards will be key to the long‐term sustainability of this rapidly growing region. The first step to building resilience is to identify the key threats that this region faces. We describe these key threats as Black Elephants: a cross between a “black swan” and the proverbial \"elephant in the room\" — they are extreme events that are known but difficult to address and often ignored. We examine the primary drivers of these looming risks and find that the drivers include underestimated or intensifying hazards, growing exposure, high vulnerability, and unaccounted complexities from multi‐hazard events. In mitigating these key risks, we discuss psychological barriers to action and highlight the importance of information, language, and hope. The known but complex impacts from natural hazards in Asia must be further acknowledged and managed in order to build a more sustainable, resilient future in an increasingly globally connected world. Plain Language Summary Asia has the fastest growing population and economy in the world, but it is also the most disaster prone region and is home to many Black Elephant disaster risks. Black Elephant risks are a cross between extreme events that are known, but difficult to address, and are especially relevant to Asia's development. In this paper, we characterize drivers of these risks, including underestimated or changing hazards, growing number of people, places, and things that are potentially affected by hazards, high vulnerability of built and social systems when exposed to hazards, and growing impacts from multi‐hazard events. Analysis of the drivers of Black Elephant events offer insights for improved resilience to Black Elephant events. In addressing Black Elephant disaster risks, we recommend leveraging the power of language, hope, and existing information for improved resilience in this region. Key Points Black Elephant events are extreme events that are known, but difficult to address, and are especially relevant to Asia's development and sustainability Analysis of the drivers of Black Elephant events offer insights for improved resilience to these events In addressing Black Elephant events, we recommend leveraging the power of language, hope, and existing information

Devastating disasters that are predicted but ignored are known as Black Elephants—a cross between a Black Swan event and the proverbial elephant in the room. It’s time we acknowledged the looming natural hazard risks that no one wants to talk about.

Despite volcanic risk having been defined quantitatively more than 30 years ago, this risk has been managed without being effectively measured. The recent substantial progress in quantifying eruption probability paves the way for a new era of rational science‐based volcano risk management, based on what may be termed “volcanic risk metrics” (VRM). In this paper, we propose the basic principles of VRM, based on coupling probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting with cost‐benefit analysis. The VRM strategy has the potential to rationalize decision making across a broad spectrum of volcanological questions. When should the call for evacuation be made? What early preparations should be made for a volcano crisis? Is it worthwhile waiting longer? What areas should be covered by an emergency plan? During unrest, what areas of a large volcanic field or caldera should be evacuated, and when? The VRM strategy has the paramount advantage of providing a set of quantitative and transparent rules that can be established well in advance of a crisis, optimizing and clarifying decision‐making procedures. It enables volcanologists to apply all their scientific knowledge and observational information to assist authorities in quantifying the positive and negative risk implications of any decision.

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated.

The study of historical earthquakes itself has an interesting history, and Nick Ambraseys figures highly in it. This historiographic tribute relates the pivotal role that he played in the development of the British and Scandinavian Earthquake Archives. Maintaining his academic distance from direct hazard consulting, he nevertheless exerted a significant influence on the scientific conduct of hazard analyses. From the collection of instrumental and macroseismic data to the assignment of magnitudes, the modus operandi which he recommended was followed in pioneering seismic hazard studies in Britain, the North Sea and Norway, during the 1980s. Because of the confidentiality of seismic hazard reports produced for the UK nuclear industry, there is little record in the open seismological literature of the contribution of Nick Ambraseys. As a civil engineer, he had an exceptional interest in the earthquake evidence that could be gleaned from historical documents. An illustrative reference is given to the discovery of fresh evidence from an Aegean earthquake that shows how even the most knowledgeable of earthquake historians can be surprised.

The non-technical handbook for cyber security risk managementSolving Cyber Risk distills a decade of research into a practical framework for cyber security. Blending statistical data and cost information with research into the culture, psychology, and business models of the hacker community, this book provides business executives, policy-makers, and individuals with a deeper understanding of existing future threats, and an action plan for safeguarding their organizations. Key Risk Indicators reveal vulnerabilities based on organization type, IT infrastructure and existing security measures, while expert discussion from leading cyber risk specialists details practical, real-world methods of risk reduction and mitigation.By the nature of the business, your organization’s customer database is packed with highly sensitive information that is essentially hacker-bait, and even a minor flaw in security protocol could spell disaster. This book takes you deep into the cyber threat landscape to show you how to keep your data secure.Understand who is carrying out cyber-attacks, and whyIdentify your organization’s risk of attack and vulnerability to damageLearn the most cost-effective risk reduction measuresAdopt a new cyber risk assessment and quantification framework based on techniques used by the insurance industryBy applying risk management principles to cyber security, non-technical leadership gains a greater understanding of the types of threat, level of threat, and level of investment needed to fortify the organization against attack. Just because you have not been hit does not mean your data is safe, and hackers rely on their targets’ complacence to help maximize their haul. Solving Cyber Risk gives you a concrete action plan for implementing top-notch preventative measures before you’re forced to implement damage control.

The notion of a deterministic design basis presupposed that this maximum level of earthquake could be determined accurately, which has proven to be too optimistic. Since the 1970s, the ideas of probabilistic risk assessment have spread from the nuclear industry to the safety-critical chemical, oil, and gas industries, and to critical rail, sea, and air transport infrastructure. Wars are no longer winnable in the sense that the adversary is permanently off the battlefield. [...]the defeat of the Taliban in 2001 was not the end of post- 9/11 Western involvement in Afghanistan - it was just the beginning.