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The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed.

Background Studies have suggested sex differences in the mortality rate associated with diabetes. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the relative effect of diabetes on the risk of all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), infectious disease, and respiratory disease mortality in women compared with men. Methods Studies published from their inception to April 1, 2018, identified through a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE and review of references. We used the sex-specific RRs to derive the women-to-men ratio of RRs (RRR) and 95% CIs from each study. Subsequently, the RRR for each outcome was pooled with random-effects meta-analysis weighted by the inverse of the variances of the log RRRs. Results Forty-nine studies with 86 prospective cohorts met the inclusion criteria and were eligible for analysis. The pooled women-to-men RRR showed a 13% greater risk of all-cause mortality associated with diabetes in women than in men (RRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; P  < 0.001). The pooled multiple-adjusted RRR indicated a 30% significantly greater excess risk of CVD mortality in women with diabetes compared with men (RRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.49; P  < 0.001). Compared with men with diabetes, women with diabetes had a 58% greater risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, but only an 8% greater risk of stroke mortality (RRR CHD 1.58, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.90; P  < 0.001; RRR stroke 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.15; P  < 0.001). However, no sex differences were observed in pooled results of populations with or without diabetes for all-cancer (RRR 1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06; P  = 0.21), infectious (RRR 1.13, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.38; P  = 0.33), and respiratory mortality (RRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.23; P  = 0.26). Conclusions Compared with men with the same condition, women with diabetes have a 58% and 13% greater risk of CHD and all-cause mortality, respectively, although there was a significant heterogeneity between studies. This points to an urgent need to develop sex- and gender-specific risk assessment strategies and therapeutic interventions that target diabetes management in the context of CHD prevention.

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the knowledge about the current patterns is valuable for policymaking to decrease the TB burden. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we used a Joinpoint regression analysis to examine the variations in the trends of TB incidence and mortality, and the age-period-cohort statistical model to evaluate their risks associated with age, period, and cohort in males and females from Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In the four countries, TB incidence and mortality rates displayed decreasing trends in men and women; except for the males from DRC that recorded an almost steady pattern in the trend of TB incidence between 1990 and 2019. TB incidence and mortality rates decreased according to the overall annual percentage changes over the adjusted age category in men and women of the four countries, and CAM registered the highest decrease. Although TB incidence and mortality rates increased with age between 1990 and 2019, the male gender was mainly associated with the upward behaviors of TB incidence rates, and the female gender association was with the upward behaviors of TB mortality rates. Males and females aged between 15–54 and 15–49 years old were evaluated as the population at high risks of TB incidence and mortality respectively in CAM, CAR, Chad, and DRC. The period and cohort relative risks (RRs) both declined in men and women of the four countries although there were some upward behaviors in their trends. Relatively to the period and cohort RRs, females and males from CAM recorded the most significant decrease compared to the rest of the countries. New public health approaches and policies towards young adults and adults, and a particular focus on elderlies’ health and life conditions should be adopted in CAM, CAR, DRC, and Chad to rapidly decrease TB incidence and mortality in both genders of the four countries.

Background Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. Methods We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. Results The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

We examined the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, central China, during 2009–2012. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between temperature and mortality. A multivariable meta-analysis was then used to pool the estimates of county-specific mortality effects of extreme cold temperature (1st percentile) and hot temperature (99th percentile). An inverse J-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and mortality at the provincial level. Heat effect occurred immediately and persisted for 2–3 days, whereas cold effect was 1–2 days delayed and much longer lasting. Higher mortality risks were observed among females, the elderly aged over 75 years, persons dying outside the hospital and those with high education attainment, especially for cold effects. Our data revealed some slight differences in heat- and cold- related mortality effects on urban and rural residents. These findings may have important implications for developing locally-based preventive and intervention strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality, especially for those susceptible subpopulations. Also, urbanization should be considered as a potential influence factor when evaluating temperature-mortality association in future researches.

Background As the emerging economies, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) shared 61.58% of the global chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) deaths in 2017. This study aimed to assess the secular trends in CRD mortality and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort across main BRICS countries. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and analyzed using the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. The net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, period/cohort rate ratios (RRs) were obtained through the APC model. Results In 2019, the CRD deaths across the BRICS were 2.39 (95%UI 1.95 to 2.84) million, accounting for 60.07% of global CRD deaths. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma remained the leading causes of CRD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) have declined across the BRICS since 1990, with the most apparent decline in China. Meanwhile, the downward trends in CRD death counts were observed in China and Russia. The overall net drifts per year were obvious in China (-5.89%; -6.06% to -5.71%), and the local drift values were all below zero in all age groups for both sexes. The age effect of CRD presented increase with age, and the period and cohort RRs were following downward trends over time across countries. Similar trends were observed in COPD and asthma. The improvement of CRD mortality was the most obvious in China, especially in period and cohort effects. While South Africa showed the most rapid increase with age across all CRD categories, and the period and cohort effects were flat. Conclusions BRICS accounted for a large proportion of CRD deaths, with China and India alone contributing more than half of the global CRD deaths. However, the declines in ASMR and improvements of period and cohort effects have been observed in both sexes and all age groups across main BRICS countries. China stands out for its remarkable reduction in CRD mortality and its experience may help reduce the burden of CRD in developing countries.

Aims/hypothesisThis study aimed to investigate whether the effects of sleep duration interacted with the presence of diabetes. We specifically sought to examine the relationship between sleep duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with type 2 diabetes across sex, age at diagnosis, duration of diabetes and treatment type.MethodsThe sample consisted of 273,029 adults, including 248,817 without diabetes and 24,212 with type 2 diabetes, who participated in the National Health Interview Survey from 2004 to 2013 and whose data were linked to a mortality database up to 31 December 2015. Sleep duration was measured using self-report, whereby participants were asked ‘on average how long do you sleep each day (≤5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or ≥10 h/day)?’ The relationship between sleep duration and mortality risk was investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression model, with adjustments for demographics, BMI, lifestyle behaviours and clinical variables.ResultsAbsolute mortality rate was higher in adults with diabetes and extremes of sleep duration (≤5 h/day, 215.0 per 10,000 person-years; ≥10 h/day, 363.5 per 10,000 person-years). There was a non-significant interaction between sleep duration and the presence of diabetes (p for interaction = 0.08). A J-shaped relationship existed between sleep duration and all-cause mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes. Compared with the reference group (7 h/day), both shorter and longer sleep durations were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (≤5 h/day, HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.09, 1.40]; 6 h/day, HR 1.13 [1.01, 1.28]; 8 h/day, HR 1.17 [1.06, 1.30]; ≥10 h/day, HR 1.83 [1.61, 2.08]). Similar associations were also observed for mortality risk from CVD, cancer, kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Longer sleep duration in those with a younger age at diabetes onset was associated with greater risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Shorter sleep duration in individuals treated with both insulin and oral glucose-lowering medication was also associated with higher risks of all-cause and CVD mortality.Conclusions/interpretationThe associations between sleep duration and mortality risk may be different between diabetic and non-diabetic individuals. In people with type 2 diabetes, sleeping less or more than 7 h/day was associated with increased risk of all-cause and condition-specific mortality. The association was more prominent in those with a younger age at diabetes onset and receiving treatment with both oral glucose-lowering medication and insulin. This population may benefit from targeted sleep-related interventions to reduce the risks of adverse health outcomes.

The current study aimed to explore some important insights into the breast cancer mortality (BCM) trends and projections among four Asian countries by using five advanced stochastic mortality models. BCM data over 28 years from 1990–2017 with ages 20–84 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for four Asian countries, namely, China, India, Pakistan, and Thailand. Five stochastic mortality models with the family of generalized age-period-cohort were implemented to find the present and future BCM trends in these four Asian countries. Based on Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) model and Lee-Carter model (LCM), overall, results revealed that BCM increased with the passage of time. Aging factor was the most influential factor of elevated BCM in each Asian country under consideration. Projection of BCM showed that mortality rates might continue to grow with time, especially in older ages in each Asian country under study. The highest forecasted BCM rates were observed in Pakistan as compared to other countries. The obvious increase in BCM suggested that earlier tactics should be implemented to reduce the subsequent morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer. The last but not least, some additional tactics to mitigate the BCM in older ages must be adopted.

Background Global climate change is one of the most serious environmental issues faced by humanity, and the resultant change in frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells could increase mortality. The influence of temperature on human health could be immediate or delayed. Latitude, relative humidity, and air pollution may influence the temperature–mortality relationship. We studied the influence of temperature on mortality and its lag effect in four Chinese cities with a range of latitudes over 2008–2011, adjusting for relative humidity and air pollution. Methods We recorded the city-specific distributions of temperature and mortality by month and adopted a Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to investigate the lag effect of temperature on mortality. Results We found that the coldest months in the study area are December through March and the hottest months are June through September. The ratios of deaths during cold months to hot months were 1.43, 1.54, 1.37 and 1.12 for the cities of Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The effects of extremely high temperatures generally persisted for 3 days, whereas the risk of extremely low temperatures could persist for 21 days. Compared with the optimum temperature of each city, at a lag of 21 days, the relative risks (95 % confidence interval) of extreme cold temperatures were 4.78 (3.63, 6.29), 2.38 (1.35, 4.19), 2.62 (1.15, 5.95) and 2.62 (1.44, 4.79) for Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The respective risks were 1.35 (1.18, 1.55), 1.19 (0.96, 1.48), 1.22 (0.82, 1.82) and 2.47 (1.61, 3.78) for extreme hot temperatures, at a lag of 3 days. Conclusions Temperature–mortality relationships vary among cities at different latitudes. Local governments should establish regional prevention and protection measures to more effectively confront and adapt to local climate change. The effects of hot temperatures predominantly occur over the short term, whereas those of cold temperatures can persist for an extended number of days.

Abstract Background: In China, stroke burden remains severe as it is a major cause of mortality and disability. Detailed analyses across different subtypes will help optimize intervention strategies, enhance resource allocation efficiency, and ultimately reduce the overall disease burden. Methods: We conducted a descriptive analysis of the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of stroke and its subtypes using data (1990–2021) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. A Joinpoint regression model was applied to quantitatively analyze the indicators and calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to project trends for 2022–2040. Results: Incidence of stroke increased by 100.64% from 1990 to 2021, with ischemic stroke (IS) exhibiting the largest increase (201.13%) among all the subtypes, and the incidence being consistently higher in males than in females. The YLL/YLD ratio for stroke and its subtypes has decreased, with the YLL/YLD ratio falling from 20.13 to 9.48 in 1990–2021, indicating an increase in non-fatal burden. After adjusting for age, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of stroke and its subtypes declined, except for IS. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) decreased significantly (APC: –15.31%; 2000–2004), with the largest reduction in the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) also occurring during this period (APC: –14.22%). Furthermore, BAPC projections (2022–2040) indicate that stroke ASIRs in males will slightly decline but increase in females. Meanwhile, the ASIR of IS is expected to continue to rise. Overall, the ASMR and ASDR are projected to decline. Conclusions: Although China has made some progress in stroke prevention and control, several challenges remain. Controlling IS must be prioritized, especially due to the high stroke burden among males.