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2,677 result(s) for "Zhang, Weimin"
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Machine Learning in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling: A Review
Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoing progress as well as the many remaining problems. Machine learning, as a means of artificial intelligence, has been certified by many researchers as being able to provide a new way to solve the bottlenecks of tropical cyclone forecasts, whether using a pure data-driven model or improving numerical models by incorporating machine learning. Through summarizing and analyzing the challenges of tropical cyclone forecasts in recent years and successful cases of machine learning methods in these aspects, this review introduces progress based on machine learning in genesis forecasts, track forecasts, intensity forecasts, extreme weather forecasts associated with tropical cyclones (such as strong winds and rainstorms, and their disastrous impacts), and storm surge forecasts, as well as in improving numerical forecast models. All of these can be regarded as both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that at present, the potential of machine learning has not been completely exploited, and a large amount of multi-source data have also not been fully utilized to improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting. The challenge is that the predictable period and stability of tropical cyclone prediction can be difficult to guarantee, because tropical cyclones are different from normal weather phenomena and oceanographic processes and they have complex dynamic mechanisms and are easily influenced by many factors.
How Did the Merger With a Tropical Depression Amplify the Rapid Weakening of Super Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022)?
Grasping the physical interactions when two tropical cyclones (TCs) (TC) are in proximity is essential for boosting the accuracy of TC forecasts. This study dissects an uncommon scenario wherein the merging with Tropical Depression 13 W significantly hastened the rapid weakening of Super Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022), utilizing comparative experiments with and without 13 W in simulation's initial field. The findings reveal strong correlations between the merger, amplified environmental vertical wind shear (VWS), and Hinnamnor's consecutive weakening, unfolding in two stages— “top‐down” (Stage 1) and “bottom‐up” weakening (Stage 2) stage. In Stage 1, 13 W led to downdrafts from upper level, hindering the eyewall updrafts and weakening the warm core. In Stage 2, 13 W merged into Hinnamnor's outer rainband, introduced low‐entropy air into the boundary layer and also vied with the eyewall for energy. This research emphasizes that even minor, less‐intense vortices can have profound impacts on the rapid intensity change in TCs. Plain Language Summary A tropical cyclone (TC)'s intensity and track can be affected by the atmospheric vortices through binary interaction (i.e., Fujiwhara effect). Yet little study has illustrated the merger of TCs with large differences in intensity and size, as well as how it impacts the TC structure and intensity. This study examines the rapid weakening of Super Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) during its interaction with the tropical depression named 13 W, by two numerical experiments—with and without the existence of 13 W in the initial field. The results find that the merger‐induced increase in environmental vertical wind shear and outer rainband effect caused by 13 W contributed to Hinnamnor's weakening. The process unfolds in two stages. In the first stage, the 13 W in upshear quadrants induced downdrafts from the upper level, disrupting Hinnamnor's eyewall updrafts and diminishing the warm core from top to down. In the second stage, the 13 W in downshear quadrants merged into Hinnamnor's outer rainband, increasing the infusion of low‐entropy air into boundary layer, in turn weakening Hinnamnor from bottom to upper level. This research demonstrates the rainband effect from the other TC during binary interaction, and underlines the attention on impacts from weak and small vortices in TC operational forecasting. Key Points The merger with Tropical Depression 13 W amplified lower environmental wind and vertical wind shear, leading to Hinnamnor's further weakening In early “top‐down” weakening, the 13 W in upshear induced downdrafts, diminishing Hinnamnor's eyewall updrafts and warm core In later “bottom‐up” weakening, the 13 W in downshear merged into Hinnamnor's outer rainband, reducing the entropy of boundary layer inflow
Effects of C-reactive protein trajectories of critically ill patients with sepsis on in-hospital mortality rate
Sepsis, a life-threatening condition caused by an inflammatory response to systemic infection, results in a significant social burden and healthcare costs. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the C-reactive protein (CRP) trajectories of patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU) and the in-hospital mortality rate. We reviewed 1464 patients with sepsis treated in the ICU of Dongyang People’s Hospital from 2010 to 2020 and used latent growth mixture modeling to divide the patients into four classes according to CRP trajectory (intermediate, gradually increasing, persistently high, and persistently low CRP levels). We found that patients with intermediate and persistently high CRP levels had the lowest (18.1%) and highest (32.6%) in-hospital mortality rates, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that patients with persistently high (odds ratio [OR] = 2.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55–3.11) and persistently low (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.03–1.94) CRP levels had a higher risk of in-hospital mortality than patients with intermediate CRP levels. In conclusion, in-hospital mortality rates among patients with sepsis differ according to the CRP trajectory, with patients with intermediate CRP levels having the lowest mortality rate. Further research on the underlying mechanisms is warranted.
Camrelizumab versus placebo in combination with gemcitabine and cisplatin as first-line treatment for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (CAPTAIN-1st): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial
The addition of camrelizumab to gemcitabine and cisplatin showed promising activity as first-line therapy in patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a phase 1 trial. We therefore compared camrelizumab plus gemcitabine and cisplatin with placebo plus gemcitabine and cisplatin in a randomised phase 3 trial. In this randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial done at 28 hospitals in China, patients were eligible if they were aged 18–75 years, had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0–1, and had previously untreated recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1; using an interactive web-response system with a block size of four) to receive either camrelizumab (200 mg on day 1) or matching placebo intravenously, plus gemcitabine and cisplatin (gemcitabine 1000 mg/m2 on days 1 and 8; cisplatin 80 mg/m2 on day 1) intravenously every 3 weeks for four to six cycles, followed by maintenance therapy with camrelizumab or placebo, until radiographic progression, unacceptable toxicity, start of new anticancer treatment, investigator decision, or withdrawal of consent. Stratification factors used in randomisation were liver metastases, previous radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy, and ECOG performance status. The allocation sequence was generated by an independent randomisation group. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival per independent review committee. The significance threshold for independent review committee-assessed progression-free survival was p=0·0086 (one-sided) at the interim analysis. Efficacy and safety analyses included all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03707509, and is closed for enrolment but is ongoing. Between Nov 13, 2018, and Nov 29, 2019, 343 patients were screened and 263 were eligible and were randomly assigned to the camrelizumab group (n=134) or placebo group (n=129). At the prespecified interim analysis (June 15, 2020), independent review committee-assessed progression-free survival was significantly longer in the camrelizumab group (median 9·7 months [95% CI 8·3–11·4]) than in the placebo group (median 6·9 months [5·9–7·3]; hazard ratio 0·54 [95% CI 0·39–0·76]; one-sided p=0·0002). As of Dec 31, 2020, the most common grade 3 or worse adverse events of any cause were decreased white blood cell count (89 [66%] of 134 patients in the camrelizumab group vs 90 [70%] of 129 patients in the placebo group), decreased neutrophil count (86 [64%] vs 85 [66%]), anaemia (53 [40%] vs 57 [44%]), and decreased platelet count (53 [40%] vs 52 [40%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 59 (44%) of 134 patients in the camrelizumab group and 48 (37%) of 129 patients in the placebo group. Treatment-related deaths occurred in five (4%) patients in the camrelizumab group (two unknown cause of death, one multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, one pharyngeal haemorrhage, and one arrhythmia) and one (<1%) patient in the placebo group (unknown cause of death). Our findings suggest that camrelizumab plus gemcitabine and cisplatin could be a new standard of care for patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the first-line setting. Longer follow-up is needed to confirm this conclusion. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (formerly Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine). For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Analysis of motion characteristics and dynamic modeling of traction machine brakes stopping car
Braking distance is one of the important indicators for measuring elevator safety. At present, using the traction machine brakes to stop the traction sheave and indirectly stop the car is the mainstream stopping method for elevators with gearless machine. However, in existing theoretical research, the complex elevator braking process is only modeled through simple constant acceleration motion, without considering the influence of the sealing device, let alone the sliding motion of the suspension ropes on the traction sheave after the traction sheave stops rotating, the calculated results are much smaller than the actual situation, which poses a huge challenge to the safe operation of the elevator. Therefore, this article analyzes the slip dynamics characteristics of the suspension ropes on the traction sheave and the asynchronous operation characteristics of traction shave and car during the car braking process under the influence of nonlinear sealing torque and braking torque. A new differential equation for acceleration, velocity, and displacement of the car is established, and the equation is solved through approximate methods. The experimental results show that the theoretical model proposed in this paper can accurately evaluate the dynamic characteristics of the car braking process and has wide engineering application value.
Long-range exciton diffusion in molecular non-fullerene acceptors
The short exciton diffusion length associated with most classical organic semiconductors used in organic photovoltaics (5-20 nm) imposes severe limits on the maximum size of the donor and acceptor domains within the photoactive layer of the cell. Identifying materials that are able to transport excitons over longer distances can help advancing our understanding and lead to solar cells with higher efficiency. Here, we measure the exciton diffusion length in a wide range of nonfullerene acceptor molecules using two different experimental techniques based on photocurrent and ultrafast spectroscopy measurements. The acceptors exhibit balanced ambipolar charge transport and surprisingly long exciton diffusion lengths in the range of 20 to 47 nm. With the aid of quantum-chemical calculations, we are able to rationalize the exciton dynamics and draw basic chemical design rules, particularly on the importance of the end-group substituent on the crystal packing of nonfullerene acceptors. The short-range diffusion length of organic semiconductors severely limits exciton harvesting and charge generation in organic bulk heterojunction solar cells. Here, the authors report exciton diffusion length in the range of 20 to 47 nm for a wide range of non-fullerene acceptors molecules.
Early diuretic use and mortality in critically ill patients with vasopressor support: a propensity score-matching analysis
Background The effect of loop diuretic use in critically ill patients on vasopressor support or in shock is unclear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between loop diuretic use and hospital mortality in critically ill patients with vasopressor support. Methods Data were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. Adult patients with records of vasopressor use within 48 h after intensive care unit admission were screened. Multivariable logistic regression and propensity score matching was used to investigate any association. Results Data on 7828 patients were included. The crude hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with diuretic use (166/1469 vs. 1171/6359, p  <  0.001). In the extended multivariable logistic models, the odds ratio (OR) of diuretic use was consistently significant in all six models (OR range 0.56–0.75, p  < 0.05 for all). In the subgroup analysis, an interaction effect was detected between diuretic use and fluid balance (FB). In the positive FB subgroup, diuretic use was significantly associated with decreased mortality (OR 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51–0.78) but was insignificant in the negative FB subgroup. In the other subgroups of mean arterial pressure, maximum sequential organ failure assessment score, and lactate level, the association between diuretic use and mortality remained significant and no interaction was detected. After propensity score matching, 1463 cases from each group were well matched. The mortality remained significantly lower in the diuretic use group (165/1463 vs. 231/1463, p  < 0.001). Conclusions Although residual confounding cannot be excluded, loop diuretic use is associated with lower mortality.
Mooring Observations of Typhoon Trami (2024)-Induced Upper-Ocean Variability: Diapycnal Mixing and Internal Wave Energy Characteristics
High-resolution mooring observations captured diverse upper-ocean responses during typhoon passage, showing strong agreement with satellite-derived sea surface temperature and salinity. Analysis indicates that significant wind-induced mixing drove pronounced near-surface cooling and salinity increases at the mooring site. This mixing enhancement was predominantly governed by rapid intensification of near-inertial shear in the surface layer, revealed by mooring observations. Unlike shear instability, near-inertial horizontal kinetic energy displays a unique vertical distribution, decreasing with depth before rising again. Interestingly, the subsurface peak in diurnal tidal energy coincides vertically with the minimum in near-inertial energy. While both barotropic tidal forcing and stratification changes negligibly influence diurnal tidal energy emergence, significant energy transfer occurs from near-inertial internal waves to the diurnal tide. This finding highlights a critical tide–wave interaction process and demonstrates energy cascading within the oceanic internal wave spectrum.
Intrinsic efficiency limits in low-bandgap non-fullerene acceptor organic solar cells
In bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells (OSCs) both the electron affinity (EA) and ionization energy (IE) offsets at the donor–acceptor interface should equally control exciton dissociation. Here, we demonstrate that in low-bandgap non-fullerene acceptor (NFA) BHJs ultrafast donor-to-acceptor energy transfer precedes hole transfer from the acceptor to the donor and thus renders the EA offset virtually unimportant. Moreover, sizeable bulk IE offsets of about 0.5 eV are needed for efficient charge transfer and high internal quantum efficiencies, since energy level bending at the donor–NFA interface caused by the acceptors’ quadrupole moments prevents efficient exciton-to-charge-transfer state conversion at low IE offsets. The same bending, however, is the origin of the barrier-less charge transfer state to free charge conversion. Our results provide a comprehensive picture of the photophysics of NFA-based blends, and show that sizeable bulk IE offsets are essential to design efficient BHJ OSCs based on low-bandgap NFAs. A systematic analysis of a series of donor–acceptor organic blends shows that in solar cells based on low-bandgap non-fullerene acceptors an ionization energy offset of about 0.5 eV is required to ensure efficient charge separation.
Elasto-plastic solution for undrained cylindrical cavity expansion in refuse soil
To address geotechnical engineering issues such as pile driving, lateral pressure tests, and static cone penetration tests on increasing number of infrastructure projects being constructed on landfills, an elasto-plastic theoretical solution for the undrained cylindrical cavity expansion in refuse soil is proposed in this paper based on an elasto-plastic constitutive model for refuse soil considering the reinforcement effect of fibers, along with a large deformation theory. The correctness of the results is validated through comparison with existing solutions based on the modified Cam-clay model. The results indicate that the response of columnar pore expansion in refuse soil is significantly different from that in ordinary soil. Near the pore, refuse soil does not enter a critical state, only the slurry-like components do. Subsequently, the reinforcement effect of the fiber material begins to manifest. Refuse soils with different fiber contents undergo both elastic and plastic stages before reaching the critical state line of the slurry-like components in the soil. They then move a certain distance along this line to reach a maximum. Given the rarity of engineering construction on similar sites in the past, the unique response of refuse soil during cylindrical cavity expansion should be given special attention.