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本文使用「狀態空間模型」（State Space Model）並完整納入中國人民銀行行長周小川揭露的11種貨幣，研究中國實施匯率機制改革以後的人民幣匯率機制。不論是使用月資料或是日資料，使用瑞士法郎、美元或是特別提款權作為計價標準，使用固定係數模型或是狀態空間模型，本文分析結果都顯示，人民幣通貨籃內的貨幣基本上只有美元。基於此一發現，加上匯改以來，人民幣對美元匯率在多數時間是以緩慢但不一致的速度爬升，而且人民幣對美元匯率的浮動程度一直相當低，我們推論中國實施的其實是「權衡式的爬行釘住美元」（Discretionary Crawling Peg to the US Dollar）機制。換言之，中國是以參考一籃子貨幣為名，行人民幣釘住美元之實。就中國面臨的經濟情勢來看，「權衡式的爬行釘住美元」機制應該是最佳選擇。基於中國經濟改革長期以來所遵循的漸進主義精神，可以預見中國實施自由浮動匯率機制，或只是實施有實質意涵的管理浮動匯率制度，應該還需要相當時間。

This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.

Movement of the renminbi （RMB） exchange rate is not only affected by economic factors, but also by political factors home and aboard. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of political cycles on the RMB exchange rate first, and then sets up a ＂political cycle spillover effect model＂ followed by an empirical analysis. We find that： （1） the US political cycle has a direct effect on the RMB exchange rate in the short run, which is mainly transmitted by capital flows and China＇s exchange rate policy control; （2） the RMB exchange rate changes periodically in accordance with the US presidential election and midterm election cycle, with the appreciation ratio significantly lower in the first year of the election cycle, while significantly higher in the year after the midterm election; （3） The effect of the political cycle will not be affected by which party holds power, though it will be affected if the president and parliament are ruled by the same party. This paper not only extends the research of the influencing factors of the RMB exchange rate to the political field, but also sets up a use theoretical model to analyze the impact of political issues on the RMB exchange rate, providing a new perspective to fully understand the external environment of RMB exchange rate reform.

Many claim that China will soon overtake the US. I argue that this claim is based on a misuse of statistics. The International Comparison Program （ICP） price data is necessary to compare living standards, since a dollar＇s worth of yuan buys more in China than a dollar buys in the US. But the fact that rice and clothes are cheap in rural China does not make the Chinese economy larger. What matters for size in the world economy is how much a yuan can buy on world markets. Using the correct prices, the US remains the world＇s largest economic power by a substantial margin.

This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile, due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises, RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of ＂survival of the fittest＂ and is instead unfavorable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciatiou drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However, such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.

After joining the World Trade Organization （WTO）, China has intensified market-oriented reforms in the renminbi exchange rate, foreign trade, utilization of foreign funds, and foreign-related economic laws etc. In terms of ownership structure, a move from state-owned asset management system policies toward non-publiclyowned enterprises has been undertaken. In addition, China has proactively reformed the government administration system.

The Sino-U.S. trade imbalance and the related debate on RMB appreciation have attracted much attention in recent years. Judging objectively, however, the trade imbalance does not necessarily result in an imbalance in the distribution of trade benefits. By analyzing the distribution of benefits in Sino-U.S. trade from 1978 to 2007, this paper finds that bilateral trade has brought positive benefits to both sides, differentially in terms of production and consumption. Simply put, China has gained benefits for production yet suffered in terms of consumption, whereas the opposite is true for the U.S.. Moreover, even during periods in which the U.S. experienced a trade deficit, its citizens gained larger total individual benefits than those in a period of trade surplus. We argue, therefore, that appreciation of the RMB would reduce the trade benefits for both sides by almost the same margin, bringing little benefit to the United States.

The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with both internal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currency revaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchangerate regimes in the period since Worm War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary to validate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixed rate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.

This paper argues that a nominal appreciation of renminbi should be eschewed because of China's existing trade structure, financial fragility and macroeconomic imbalance. Instead, the renminbi's valuation issue can be dealt with effectively using a structural and macroeconomic approach by first reducing distortionary export subsidies and gradually removing excessive fiscal incentives granted to FD1-founded firms in the short term. In the medium term, the renminbi's valuation issue can be addressed via reflation: expansionary fscal policy with a focus on rural infrastructure investment accommodated by supportive monetary policy. Finally, the paper emphasizes that such investment has to be incentive compatible by involving local government and private initiatives aided by the development of China's local government or municipal bond market.