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"1979-2011"
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حرب الضرورة : حرب الاختيار : سيرة حربين على العراق
هذا ليس كتابا عاديا حول السياسة الخارجية إنه سرد حي وصادق عن التاريخ الحديث سرد ينضح بوجهات نظر فيها البلاغة وفيها الفرادة بقلم رجل كان محركا أساسيا داخل البيت الأبيض ووزارة الخارجية وهو مدخل إلى التاريخ ومذكرات شخصية في آن معا يقدم لنا إطلالة قيمة على عدد من أهم الأحداث الدولية المعاصرة كما أنه يعد بوصلة كانت الولايات المتحدة بأمس الحاجة اليها كي تهتدي على ضوئها إلى كيفية تطبيق الدروس المستقاة من كل من الحربين.
Book
Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?
We model fund turnover in the presence of time-varying profit opportunities. Our model predicts a positive relation between an active fund's turnover and its sub-sequent benchmark-adjusted return. We find such a relation for equity mutual funds. This time-series relation between turnover and performance is stronger than the cross-sectional relation, as the model predicts. Also as predicted, the turnover-performance relation is stronger for funds trading less-liquid stocks and funds likely to possess greater skill. Turnover is correlated across funds. The common component of turnover is positively correlated with proxies for stock mispricing. Turnover of similar funds helps predict a fund's performance.
Journal Article
إنقاذ العراق : بناء أمة محطمة = Saving iraq : rebuiding A broken nation
يقدم الكتاب برنامجا تجديديا مفصلا ومتكاملا لنهضة سياسية واقتصادية واجتماعية في العراق ولقيام عراق جديد علماني ليبرالي وديموقراطي وأهم المبادئ التي يطرحها فصل الدين عن السياسة وإلغاء الدستور الحالي ويدعو لفترة حكم إنتقالية تركز على بناء الاقتصاد الوطني وتمهد لمرحلة إصلاح سياسي واستثمار احتياطها النفطي الغني لتصبح البلاد منارة للرخاء والازدهار فالعراق لا يزال في مهب الصراعات منذ عقود طويلة من النظم الدكتاتورية التي فادت إلى خراب شامل وحروب مدمرة، وصولا إلى الاحتلال الأميركي عام 2003 الذي أدى إلى مزيد من الفوضى والعنف والتفكك تحت شعارات موهومة.
Book
Multidimensional Skills, Sorting, and Human Capital Accumulation
We construct a structural model of on-the-job search in which workers differ in skills along several dimensions and sort themselves into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those same dimensions. Skills are accumulated when used, and depreciate when not used. We estimate the model combining data from O*NET with the NLSY79. We use the model to shed light on the origins and costs of mismatch along heterogeneous skill dimensions. We highlight the deficiencies of relying on a unidimensional model of skill when decomposing the sources of variation in the value of lifetime output between initial conditions and career shocks.
Journal Article
The great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks
This paper argues that several of the poor labor market outcomes observed in the Great Recession can be traced back to a change in the demand pattern for skilled workers that started with the tech bust of 2000. In particular, we show that around the year 2000, the demand for cognitive tasks underwent a reversal. In response, highskilled workers moved down the occupational ladder and increasingly displaced lower-educated workers in less skill-intensive jobs. While these effects were present before the financial crisis of 2008, they became more obvious after jobs associated with the housing bubble disappeared.
Journal Article
Who suffers during recessions?
In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.
Journal Article
Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns
Using 1979–2012 CPS data for the United States and 1975–2012 NES data for Great Britain, we study wage behavior in both countries, with particular attention to the Great Recession. Real wages are procyclical in both countries, but the procyclicality of real wages varies across recessions, and does so differently between the two countries, in ways that defy simple explanations. We devote particular attention to the hypothesis that downward nominal wage rigidity plays an important role in cyclical employment and unemployment fluctuations. We conclude that downward wage rigidity may be less binding and have lesser allocative consequences than is often supposed.
Journal Article