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ProBio is the first outcome-adaptive platform trial in prostate cancer utilizing a Bayesian framework to evaluate efficacy within predefined biomarker signatures across systemic treatments. Prospective circulating tumor DNA and germline DNA analysis was performed in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer before randomization to androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPIs), taxanes or a physician’s choice control arm. The primary endpoint was the time to no longer clinically benefitting (NLCB). Secondary endpoints included overall survival and (serious) adverse events. Upon reaching the time to NLCB, patients could be re-randomized. The primary endpoint was met after 218 randomizations. ARPIs demonstrated ~50% longer time to NLCB compared to taxanes (median, 11.1 versus 6.9 months) and the physician’s choice arm (median, 11.1 versus 7.4 months) in the biomarker-unselected or ‘all’ patient population. ARPIs demonstrated longer overall survival (median, 38.7 versus 21.7 and 21.8 months for taxanes and physician’s choice, respectively). Biomarker signature findings suggest that the largest increase in time to NLCB was observed in AR (single-nucleotide variant/genomic structural rearrangement)-negative and TP53 wild-type patients and TMPRSS2–ERG fusion-positive patients, whereas no difference between ARPIs and taxanes was observed in TP53 -altered patients. In summary, ARPIs outperform taxanes and physician’s choice treatment in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with detectable circulating tumor DNA. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT03903835 . In a biomarker-driven, outcome-adaptive platform trial for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, androgen receptor pathway inhibitors showed longer survival with respect to taxanes and physician’s choice treatment.

Minimally invasive approaches to detect residual disease after surgery are needed to identify patients with cancer who are at risk for metastatic relapse. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) holds promise as a biomarker for molecular residual disease and relapse 1 . We evaluated outcomes in 581 patients who had undergone surgery and were evaluable for ctDNA from a randomized phase III trial of adjuvant atezolizumab versus observation in operable urothelial cancer. This trial did not reach its efficacy end point in the intention-to-treat population. Here we show that ctDNA testing at the start of therapy (cycle 1 day 1) identified 214 (37%) patients who were positive for ctDNA and who had poor prognosis (observation arm hazard ratio = 6.3 (95% confidence interval: 4.45–8.92); P  < 0.0001). Notably, patients who were positive for ctDNA had improved disease-free survival and overall survival in the atezolizumab arm versus the observation arm (disease-free survival hazard ratio = 0.58 (95% confidence interval: 0.43–0.79); P  = 0.0024, overall survival hazard ratio = 0.59 (95% confidence interval: 0.41–0.86)). No difference in disease-free survival or overall survival between treatment arms was noted for patients who were negative for ctDNA. The rate of ctDNA clearance at week 6 was higher in the atezolizumab arm (18%) than in the observation arm (4%) ( P  = 0.0204). Transcriptomic analysis of tumours from patients who were positive for ctDNA revealed higher expression levels of cell-cycle and keratin genes. For patients who were positive for ctDNA and who were treated with atezolizumab, non-relapse was associated with immune response signatures and basal–squamous gene features, whereas relapse was associated with angiogenesis and fibroblast TGFβ signatures. These data suggest that adjuvant atezolizumab may be associated with improved outcomes compared with observation in patients who are positive for ctDNA and who are at a high risk of relapse. These findings, if validated in other settings, would shift approaches to postoperative cancer care. The authors report on prospective exploratory analyses of circulating tumour DNA in an urothelial carcinoma immunotherapy clinical trial.

Trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) showed statistically significant clinical improvement in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2 + ) gastric cancer in the DESTINY-Gastric01 trial. Exploratory results from DESTINY-Gastric01 suggested a potential benefit in patients with HER2-low gastric cancer. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in HER2 expression or gene alteration, an inherent characteristic of gastric cancer tumors, presents a challenge in identifying patients who may respond to T-DXd. Specific biomarkers related to therapeutic response have not been explored extensively. Exploratory analyses were conducted to assess baseline HER2-associated biomarkers in circulating tumor DNA and tissue samples, and to investigate mechanisms of resistance to T-DXd. Baseline HER2-associated biomarkers were correlated with objective response rate (ORR) in the primary cohort of patients with HER2 + gastric cancer. The primary cohort had 64% concordance between HER2 positivity and HER2 ( ERBB2 ) plasma gene amplification. Other key driver gene amplifications, specifically MET , EGFR and FGFR2 , in circulating tumor DNA were associated with numerically lower ORR. Among 12 patients with HER2 gain-of-function mutations, ORR was 58.3% (7 of 12). ORR was consistent regardless of timing of immunohistochemistry sample collection. Further investigations are required in larger studies. Exploratory analyses of the DESTINY-Gastric01 trial show that baseline HER2-associated biomarkers in circulating tumor DNA or tissue samples were associated with therapeutic response in patients with HER2-positive tumors, and these analyses identify potential drivers of resistance.

CDK4/6 inhibition substantially improves progression-free survival (PFS) for women with advanced estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, although there are no predictive biomarkers. Early changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) level may provide early response prediction, but the impact of tumor heterogeneity is unknown. Here we use plasma samples from patients in the randomized phase III PALOMA-3 study of CDK4/6 inhibitor palbociclib and fulvestrant for women with advanced breast cancer and show that relative change in PIK3CA ctDNA level after 15 days treatment strongly predicts PFS on palbociclib and fulvestrant (hazard ratio 3.94, log-rank p  = 0.0013). ESR1 mutations selected by prior hormone therapy are shown to be frequently sub clonal, with ESR1 ctDNA dynamics offering limited prediction of clinical outcome. These results suggest that early ctDNA dynamics may provide a robust biomarker for CDK4/6 inhibitors, with early ctDNA dynamics demonstrating divergent response of tumor sub clones to treatment. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) may provide a prediction of treatment response, but could be impacted by tumor heterogeneity. Here, the authors investigate ctDNA in CDK4/6 inhibitor treatment in advanced breast cancer, finding ctDNA levels predict progression-free survival and anticipate clonal selection.

One of the great challenges in therapeutic oncology is determining who might achieve survival benefits from a particular therapy. Studies on longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics for the prediction of survival have generally been small or nonrandomized. We assessed ctDNA across 5 time points in 466 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the randomized phase 3 IMpower150 study comparing chemotherapy-immune checkpoint inhibitor (chemo-ICI) combinations and used machine learning to jointly model multiple ctDNA metrics to predict overall survival (OS). ctDNA assessments through cycle 3 day 1 of treatment enabled risk stratification of patients with stable disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2 (2.0–5.3), P  < 0.001; median 7.1 versus 22.3 months for high- versus low-intermediate risk) and with partial response (HR = 3.3 (1.7–6.4), P  < 0.001; median 8.8 versus 28.6 months). The model also identified high-risk patients in an external validation cohort from the randomized phase 3 OAK study of ICI versus chemo in NSCLC (OS HR = 3.73 (1.83–7.60), P  = 0.00012). Simulations of clinical trial scenarios employing our ctDNA model suggested that early ctDNA testing outperforms early radiographic imaging for predicting trial outcomes. Overall, measuring ctDNA dynamics during treatment can improve patient risk stratification and may allow early differentiation between competing therapies during clinical trials. A machine learning model that uses longitudinal ctDNA metrics robustly predicts survival in two phase 3 trials of patients with metastatic NSCLC, which may improve therapy selection and risk stratification.

In patients with advanced breast cancer, switching to camizestrant with a CDK4/6 inhibitor after ESR1 -mutation detection (and before disease progression) led to significantly longer progression-free survival.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) assays are increasingly used for clinical decision-making, but it is unknown how well different assays agree. We aimed to assess the agreement in ctDNA mutation calling between BEAMing (beads, emulsion, amplification, and magnetics) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), 2 of the most commonly used digital PCR techniques for detecting mutations in ctDNA. Baseline plasma samples from patients with advanced breast cancer enrolled in the phase 3 PALOMA-3 trial were assessed for and mutations in ctDNA with both BEAMing and ddPCR. Concordance between the 2 approaches was assessed, with exploratory analyses to estimate the importance of sampling effects. Of the 521 patients enrolled, 363 had paired baseline ctDNA analysis. mutation detection was 24.2% (88/363) for BEAMing and 25.3% (92/363) for ddPCR, with good agreement between the 2 techniques (κ = 0.9l; 95% CI, 0.85-0.95). mutation detection rates were 26.2% (95/363) for BEAMing and 22.9% (83/363) for ddPCR, with good agreement (κ = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.81-0.93). Discordancy was observed for 3.9% patients with mutations and 5.0% with mutations. Assessment of individual mutations suggested higher rates of discordancy for less common mutations ( = 0.019). The majority of discordant calls occurred at allele frequency <1%, predominantly resulting from stochastic sampling effects. This large, clinically relevant comparison showed good agreement between BEAMing and ddPCR, suggesting sufficient reproducibility for clinical use. Much of the observed discordancy may be related to sampling effects, potentially explaining many of the differences in the currently available ctDNA literature.

ObjectiveThe prognostication of metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) patients remains uncertain, mainly based on carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), with limited utility. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) has been suggested as a prognostic factor, but its added value has been poorly explored. The objective was to determine whether ctDNA is an independent factor for the prognostication of mPDAC.DesignTranslational study based on two prospective collections of plasma samples of mPDAC patients naïve for chemotherapy. One used as a test series and the other as validation series coming from two randomised trials (Prodige 35 and Prodige 37). CtDNA was assessed by digital droplet PCR targeting two methylated markers (HOXD8 and POU4F1) according to a newly developed and validated method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed according to ctDNA status.ResultsOf 372 plasma samples available, 354 patients were analyzed for survival. In the validation series, 145 of 255 patients were found ctDNA positive (56.8%), Median PFS and OS were 5.3 and 8.2 months in ctDNA-positive and 6.2 and 12.6 months in ctDNA-negative patients, respectively. ctDNA positivity was more often associated with young age, high CA19-9 level and neutrophils lymphocytes ratio. In multivariate analysis including these previous markers, ctDNA was confirmed as an independent prognostic marker for PFS (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.5, CI 95% [1.03–2.18], p = 0.034) and OS (HR 1.62, CI 95% [1.05–2.5], p = 0.029).ConclusionsIn this first ctDNA assessment in a large series of mPDAC derived from clinical trials, ctDNA was detectable in 56.8% of patients and confirmed as an independent prognostic marker.

Melanoma lacks validated blood-based biomarkers for monitoring and predicting treatment efficacy. Cell-free circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) is a promising biomarker; however, various detection methods have been used, and, to date, no large studies have examined the association between serial changes in ctDNA and survival after BRAF, MEK, or BRAF plus MEK inhibitor therapy. We aimed to evaluate whether baseline ctDNA concentrations and kinetics could predict survival outcomes. In this clinical validation study, we used analytically validated droplet digital PCR assays to measure BRAFV600-mutant ctDNA in pretreatment and on-treatment plasma samples from patients aged 18 years or older enrolled in two clinical trials. COMBI-d (NCT01584648) was a double-blind, randomised phase 3 study of dabrafenib plus trametinib versus dabrafenib plus placebo in previously untreated patients with BRAFV600 mutation-positive unresectable or metastatic melanoma. Patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0 or 1. COMBI-MB (NCT02039947) was an open-label, non-randomised, phase 2 study evaluating dabrafenib plus trametinib in patients with BRAFV600 mutation-positive metastatic melanoma and brain metastases. Patients in cohort A of COMBI-MB had asymptomatic brain metastases, no previous local brain-directed therapy, and an ECOG performance status of 0 or 1. Biomarker analysis was a prespecified exploratory endpoint in both trials and performed in the intention-to-treat populations in COMBI-d and COMBI-MB. We investigated the association between mutant copy number (baseline or week 4 or zero conversion status) and efficacy endpoints (progression-free survival, overall survival, and best overall response). We used Cox models, Kaplan-Meier plots, and log-rank tests to explore the association of pretreatment ctDNA concentrations with progression-free survival and overall survival. The effect of additional prognostic variables such as lactate dehydrogenase was also investigated in addition to the mutant copy number. In COMBI-d, pretreatment plasma samples were available from 345 (82%) of 423 patients and on-treatment (week 4) plasma samples were available from 224 (53%) of 423 patients. In cohort A of COMBI-MB, pretreatment and on-treatment samples were available from 38 (50%) of 76 patients with intracranial and extracranial metastatic melanoma. ctDNA was detected in pretreatment samples from 320 (93%) of 345 patients (COMBI-d) and 34 (89%) of 38 patients (COMBI-MB). When assessed as a continuous variable, elevated baseline BRAFV600 mutation-positive ctDNA concentration was associated with worse overall survival outcome (hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·09–1·18], p<0·0001 by univariate analysis), independent of treatment group and baseline lactate dehydrogenase concentrations (1·08 [1·03–1·13], p=0·0020), in COMBI-d. A ctDNA cutoff point of 64 copies per mL of plasma stratified patients enrolled in COMBI-d as high risk or low risk with respect to survival outcomes (HR 1·74 [95% CI 1·37–2·21], p<0·0001 for progression-free survival; 2·23 [1·73–2·87], p<0·0001 for overall survival) and was validated in the COMBI-MB cohort (3·20 [1·39–7·34], p=0·0047 for progression-free survival; 2·94 [1·18–7·32], p=0·016 for overall survival). In COMBI-d, undetectable ctDNA at week 4 was significantly associated with extended progression-free and overall survival, particularly in patients with elevated lactate dehydrogenase concentrations (HR 1·99 [95% CI 1·08–3·64], p=0·027 for progression-free survival; 2·38 [1·24–4·54], p=0·0089 for overall survival). Pretreatment and on-treatment BRAFV600-mutant ctDNA measurements could serve as independent, predictive biomarkers of clinical outcome with targeted therapy. Novartis.

IntroductionIn patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) variant allele fraction (VAF) might serve as a surrogate of disease burden and should be evaluated in comparison with CEA and RECIST-defined sum of target lesions.MethodsIn this pre-planned analysis of the VALENTINO trial, we included patients with RAS wild-type mCRC receiving upfront FOLFOX/panitumumab with available baseline liquid biopsy. CtDNA was analysed by means of a 14-gene NGS panel. For each patient, the gene with the highest VAF in ctDNA was selected.ResultsThe final cohort included 135 patients. The median VAF was 12.6% (IQR: 2.0–45.2%). Higher VAF was observed in patients with liver metastases and with synchronous metastases presentation. Patients with high VAF had poorer median OS compared to those with low VAF (21.8 vs 36.5 months; HR: 1.82, 95%CI: 1.20–2.76; p = 0.005). VAF outperformed baseline CEA and target lesion diameter in the prognostic stratification and remained significantly correlated with OS (p = 0.003) in a multivariate model. VAF was not significantly correlated with dimensional response and PFS.ConclusionCtDNA measured by VAF is prognostic in patients with RAS wild-type mCRC. Response and PFS after an anti-EGFR-based first-line strategy are independent from initial tumour burden.