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Despite a scientific consensus, citizens are divided when it comes to climate change — often along political lines. Democrats or liberals tend to believe that human activity is a primary cause of climate change, whereas Republicans or conservatives are much less likely to hold this belief. A prominent explanation for this divide is that it stems from directional motivated reasoning: individuals reject new information that contradicts their standing beliefs. In this Review, we suggest that the empirical evidence is not so clear, and is equally consistent with a theory in which citizens strive to form accurate beliefs but vary in what they consider to be credible evidence. This suggests a new research agenda on climate change preference formation, and has implications for effective communication.In this Review, a Bayesian framework is used to explain climate change belief updating, and the evidence required to support claims of directional motivated reasoning versus a model in which people aim for accurate beliefs, but vary in how they assess information credibility.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies may be needed to meet climate change targets. A full understanding of public attitudes towards such approaches is currently lacking. Here we report a mixed-methods study on public perceptions of CDR in the United States and the United Kingdom, focusing on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and terrestrial enhanced rock weathering. A discourse of climate urgency had a substantial impact on perceptions, with CDR seen as offering too slow a response to the climate crisis. CDR also fails to reflect long-term hopes for a sustainable world, being interpreted as not addressing the root causes of climate change. A social license to operate may therefore depend on resolving these temporal dilemmas regarding both the short- and long-term implications of technology development. While research under well-controlled conditions is likely to be acceptable, at-scale deployment without corresponding efforts to reduce emissions may represent a red line for many people.Carbon dioxide removal technologies may be needed to meet climate targets. In this study, national surveys and deliberative workshops in the United States and the United Kingdom show that carbon dioxide removal is perceived as too slow to address the immediate climate crisis while not addressing the root causes of climate change.

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a \"gateway belief model\" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.

A large area including the central-northern part of Argentina, southern Bolivia, central Chile, and most of Paraguay and Uruguay, experienced record-breaking temperatures during two consecutive heatwaves in late November and early December 2022. During the second heatwave, nine locations in northern Argentina registered their highest maximum temperature of December since at least 1961. Our analysis based on observational and reanalysis datasets indicate that South America, like the rest of the world, has experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently in recent years. The December 2022 heatwave has an estimated return time of 1 in 20 years in the current climate, meaning it has about a 5% chance of happening each year. To estimate how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood and intensity of the observed heatwave, we combined climate models with the observation-based data. We found that human-caused climate change made the event about 60 times more likely. A heatwave with a return period of 20 years would be about 1.4 °C less hot in a world without anthropogenic global warming. Heatwaves this early in the summer season pose a substantial risk to human health and are potentially lethal. This risk is aggravated by climate change, but also by other factors such as an aging population, urbanisation and the built environment, and individual behavior and susceptibility to the heat. This highlights the importance of attribution studies in a region already threatened and vulnerable to climate change.

By analysing daily air-temperature data and using computational models, the team calculated the effect of climate change on temperatures worldwide using a measure called the Climate Shift Index (CSI). The CSI scale runs from -5 to 5; a value of zero means there is no detectable influence of human-caused climate change on daily temperatures, whereas a positive val ue indicates how much more likely climate change made the observed temperature. \"By continuing to burn fossil fuels the way we do, it's a massive violation of the really basic human rights of the vast majority of the planet,\" says Otto.

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

Drought and pluvial extremes are defined as deviations from typical climatology; however, background climatology can shift over time in a non‐stationary climate, impacting interpretations of extremes. This study evaluated trends in meteorological drought and pluvial extremes by merging tree‐ring reconstructions, observations, and climate‐model simulations spanning 850–2100 CE across North America to determine whether modern and projected future precipitation lies outside the range of natural climate variability. Our results found widespread and spatially consistent exacerbation of drought and pluvial extremes, especially summer drought and winter pluvials, with drying in the west and south, wetting trends in the northeast, and intensification of both extremes across the east and north. Our study suggests that climate change has already shifted precipitation climatology beyond pre‐Industrial climatology and is projected to further intensify ongoing shifts. Plain Language Summary Managing water resources has become challenging due to the effect of human‐caused climate change on precipitation. This study examines trends in droughts and pluvials from the distant past (850 CE) to the projected future (2100 CE) to determine whether precipitation extremes in the modern, Industrial era and future are beyond what is typical of natural climate variability in North America. Trends were generated by merging information from tree rings, observations, and climate models using a novel statistical approach. Results indicate the widespread intensification of both drought and pluvials–especially summer drought and winter pluvials during the modern and future periods. Spatially, southern and western regions of North America are becoming drier, while the northeast is getting wetter, and central areas of North America show a wider range between drought and pluvial years. Our study suggests that anthropogenic climate change has already modified drought and pluvial extremes beyond natural, pre‐Industrial conditions and these ongoing trends are projected to intensify through the future. Key Points This study models seasonal drought and pluvial trends, merging reconstructions, observations, and projections from 850 to 2100 CE Results show widespread exacerbation of both extremes with overall drying (wetting) in southern (northeastern) North America Modern drought and pluvial distributions are outside pre‐Industrial (1850) conditions, and exhibiting substantial shifts in some regions

Loss and damage funds are intended to support low-income regions experiencing impacts of human-caused climate change. Currently, event attribution should only play a limited role in determining loss and damage spending, but this role could grow as the field advances.

Volcanic activity has been shown to affect Earth's climate in a myriad of ways. One such example is that eruptions proximate to surface ice will promote ice melting. In turn, the crustal unloading associated with melting an ice sheet affects the internal dynamics of the underlying magma plumbing system. Geochronologic data from the Andes over the last two glacial cycles suggest that glaciation and volcanism may interact via a positive feedback loop. At present, accurate sea‐level predictions hinge on our ability to forecast the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and thus require consideration of two‐way subglacial volcano‐deglaciation processes. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly vulnerable to collapse, yet its position atop an active volcanic rift is seldom considered. Ice unloading deepens the zone of melting and alters the crustal stress field, impacting conditions for dike initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, the consequences for internal magma chamber dynamics and long‐term eruption behavior remain elusive. Given that unloading‐triggered volcanism in West Antarctica may contribute to the uncertainty of ice loss projections, we adapt a previously published thermomechanical magma chamber model and simulate a shrinking ice load through a prescribed lithostatic pressure decrease. We investigate the impacts of varying unloading scenarios on magma volatile partitioning and eruptive trajectory. Considering the removal of km‐thick ice sheets, we demonstrate that the rate of unloading influences the cumulative mass erupted and consequently the heat released into the ice. These findings provide fundamental insights into the complex volcano‐ice interactions in West Antarctica and other subglacial volcanic settings. Plain Language Summary In regions like West Antarctica, volcanic eruptions occur underneath ice sheets. When hot magma comes in contact with ice, it can accelerate the melting of the ice cover. Beyond this, as climate change causes ice sheets to shrink, the decreasing weight on a volcano may affect its likelihood of erupting. The effects of ice loss above volcanoes on the underlying volcanic activity are not well understood. We conducted computer simulations to explore how gradual ice loss affects magma stored in the Earth's crust. We find that volcanoes beneath shrinking ice sheets are sensitive to the rate at which the ice sheet shrinks. As the ice melts away, the reduced weight on the volcano allows the magma to expand, applying pressure upon the surrounding rock that may facilitate eruptions. Additionally, the reduced weight from the melting ice above also allows dissolved water and carbon dioxide to form gas bubbles, which causes pressure to build up in the magma chamber and may eventually trigger an eruption. Under these conditions, we find that the removal of an ice sheet above a volcano results in more abundant and larger eruptions, which may potentially hasten the melting of overlying ice through complex feedback mechanisms. Key Points During deglaciation, the evolution of a crustal magma chamber beneath kilometers of ice is sensitive to the rate at which ice is removed A critical rate of unloading can trigger additional eruption events Ice unloading expedites the onset of volatile exsolution, with consequences for magma chamber pressurization and eruption size