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Centennial‐Scale Intensification of Wet and Dry Extremes in North America
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Centennial‐Scale Intensification of Wet and Dry Extremes in North America
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Journal Article
Centennial‐Scale Intensification of Wet and Dry Extremes in North America
2024
Overview
Drought and pluvial extremes are defined as deviations from typical climatology; however, background climatology can shift over time in a non‐stationary climate, impacting interpretations of extremes. This study evaluated trends in meteorological drought and pluvial extremes by merging tree‐ring reconstructions, observations, and climate‐model simulations spanning 850–2100 CE across North America to determine whether modern and projected future precipitation lies outside the range of natural climate variability. Our results found widespread and spatially consistent exacerbation of drought and pluvial extremes, especially summer drought and winter pluvials, with drying in the west and south, wetting trends in the northeast, and intensification of both extremes across the east and north. Our study suggests that climate change has already shifted precipitation climatology beyond pre‐Industrial climatology and is projected to further intensify ongoing shifts.
Plain Language Summary
Managing water resources has become challenging due to the effect of human‐caused climate change on precipitation. This study examines trends in droughts and pluvials from the distant past (850 CE) to the projected future (2100 CE) to determine whether precipitation extremes in the modern, Industrial era and future are beyond what is typical of natural climate variability in North America. Trends were generated by merging information from tree rings, observations, and climate models using a novel statistical approach. Results indicate the widespread intensification of both drought and pluvials–especially summer drought and winter pluvials during the modern and future periods. Spatially, southern and western regions of North America are becoming drier, while the northeast is getting wetter, and central areas of North America show a wider range between drought and pluvial years. Our study suggests that anthropogenic climate change has already modified drought and pluvial extremes beyond natural, pre‐Industrial conditions and these ongoing trends are projected to intensify through the future.
Key Points
This study models seasonal drought and pluvial trends, merging reconstructions, observations, and projections from 850 to 2100 CE
Results show widespread exacerbation of both extremes with overall drying (wetting) in southern (northeastern) North America
Modern drought and pluvial distributions are outside pre‐Industrial (1850) conditions, and exhibiting substantial shifts in some regions
