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result(s) for
"Climatic changes -- History -- 21st century"
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Why geography matters : more than ever
by
De Blij, Harm J.
in
China -- Politics and government -- 2002
,
Climatic changes
,
Climatic changes -- History -- 21st century
2012
Our world is experiencing rapid transformation, from climate change and the international economic crisis to the burgeoning presence of China and the revolutionary Arab Spring. In Why Geography Matters, Harm de Blij affirms that the only way to understand our changing world is through the framework of geography--and shows why the geographic illiteracy of the U.S. is a direct risk to America's national security. A unique and consistently popular title, the revisions in this updated edition will ensure that it remains the key book on geography in the market for years to come.
Why geography matters: three challenges facing America : climate change, the rise of China, and global terrorism
2006,2005
Over the next half century, the human population, divided by culture and economics and armed with weapons of mass destruction, will expand to nearly 9 billion people. Abrupt climate change may throw the global system into chaos; China will emerge as a superpower; and Islamic terrorism and insurgency will threaten vital American interests. How can we understand these and other global challenges? Harm de Blij has a simple answer: by improving our understanding of the world's geography. De Blij demonstrates how geography's perspectives yield unique and penetrating insights into the interconnections that mark our shrinking world. Centuries ago a surge of climate change halted China's maritime plans; more recently, environmental calamity altered the course of geopolitical events in East Asia; today, terrorists look for failed and malfunctioning states to base their operations--and some of these are in our own hemisphere. Preparing for climate change, averting a cold war with China, defeating terrorism: all of this requires geographic knowledge. In Why Geography Matters, de Blij makes an urgent call to restore geography to America's educational curriculum. He shows how and why the U.S. has become the world's most geographically illiterate society of consequence--and demonstrates that this geographic illiteracy is a direct risk to America's national security. In this personal and engaging book, de Blij provides a geographer's perspective on the challenges of this new century. As he states, \"We are crossing the threshold to a century that will witness massive environmental change, major population shifts, persistent civilizational conflicts [and] while geographic knowledge by itself cannot solve these problems, they will not be effectively approached without it.\"
A Bloody Good Rant
2022,2021
Following a lifetime observing Australia and its people, Tom Keneally turns inwards to reflect on what has been important to him.
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change
2020
As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon
1
–
3
. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.
Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.
Journal Article
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
by
University of Liverpool
,
Bilibashi, A
,
DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)
in
704/242
,
704/4111
,
Catchments
2019
Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
Journal Article
2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility
by
Luterbacher, Jürg
,
Esper, Jan
,
Frank, David
in
Agricultural production
,
Agriculture - history
,
Ancient civilizations
2011
Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring—based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ∼250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
Journal Article
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
by
Bopp, Laurent
,
Terhaar, Jens
,
Kwiatkowski, Lester
in
21st century
,
21st century AD
,
704/106/694/1108
2020
The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite (
Ω
arag
) and calcite (
Ω
calc
)
1
,
2
. Because of its naturally low
Ω
arag
and
Ω
calc
(refs.
2
,
3
), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts
4
–
7
. However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models
8
. Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged
Ω
arag
and
Ω
calc
to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected
3
,
8
and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions
9
–
11
, is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems.
Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.
Journal Article
Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California
by
McIntyre, Patrick J.
,
Thorne, James H.
,
Ackerly, David D.
in
Biodiversity
,
Biological Sciences
,
Biomass
2015
We document changes in forest structure between historical (1930s) and contemporary (2000s) surveys of California vegetation through comparisons of tree abundance and size across the state and within several ecoregions. Across California, tree density in forested regions increased by 30% between the two time periods, whereas forest biomass in the same regions declined, as indicated by a 19% reduction in basal area. These changes reflect a demographic shift in forest structure: larger trees (>61 cm diameter at breast height) have declined, whereas smaller trees (<30 cm) have increased. Large tree declines were found in all surveyed regions of California, whereas small tree increases were found in every region except the south and central coast. Large tree declines were more severe in areas experiencing greater increases in climaticwater deficit since the 1930s, based on a hydrologic model of water balance for historical climates through the 20th century. Forest composition in California in the last century has also shifted toward increased dominance by oaks relative to pines, a pattern consistent with warming and increased water stress, and also with paleohistoric shifts in vegetation in California over the last 150,000 y.
Journal Article
Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections
by
Benezoli Victor
,
Avila-Diaz, Alvaro
,
Justino Flavio
in
21st century
,
Adaptation
,
Change detection
2020
Brazil experiences extreme weather and climate events that cause numerous economic and social losses, and according to climate change projections, these events will increase in intensity and frequency over this century.This study adds to the body of research on Brazil’s climate change by analyzing the historical patterns and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Brazil using the World Climate Research Program’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices framework. This novel approach analyzes climate extreme events over the past four decades (1980–2016) using multiple gridded observation and reanalysis datasets. Furthermore, future changes in climate extremes are analyzed from 20 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) at high horizontal resolution (0.25° of latitude/longitude), under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected changes in the extreme indices are analyzed over mid-twenty-first century (2046–2065) and end-of-twenty-first century (2081–2100) relative to the reference period 1986–2005. Results show consistent warming patterns with increasing (decreasing) trends in warm (cold) extremes in the historical datasets. A similar but more intense warm pattern is projected in the mid and end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation indices, observations show an increase in consecutive dry days and a reduction of consecutive wet days over almost all Brazil. The frequency and intensity of extremely wet days over Brazil are expected to increase according to future scenarios. Designing effective adaptation and mitigation measures in response to changes in climate extremes events depends on this improved understanding of how conditions have and are likely to change in the future at regional scales.
Journal Article