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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
by
Bopp, Laurent
, Terhaar, Jens
, Kwiatkowski, Lester
in
21st century
/ 21st century AD
/ 704/106/694/1108
/ 704/106/694/2786
/ 704/47/4113
/ 704/829/826
/ 704/829/827
/ Acidification
/ Analysis
/ Animals
/ Anthropogenic factors
/ Aquatic Organisms
/ Aragonite
/ Arctic climate changes
/ Arctic climates
/ Arctic Regions
/ Calcite
/ Calcium carbonate
/ Calcium Carbonate - analysis
/ Carbon
/ Carbon - analysis
/ Carbon - chemistry
/ Carbon Dioxide - analysis
/ Carbon sequestration
/ Climate change
/ Climatic changes
/ Deep water
/ Deep water formation
/ Density
/ Density currents
/ Ecosystem
/ Emissions
/ Environmental impact
/ Forecasts and trends
/ Geophysics
/ History, 21st Century
/ Human Activities
/ Human beings
/ Human influences
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
/ Influence on nature
/ Marine ecosystems
/ Minerals
/ multidisciplinary
/ Observations
/ Ocean acidification
/ Ocean surface
/ Oceans
/ Oceans and Seas
/ Physics
/ Salinity
/ Science
/ Science (multidisciplinary)
/ Seawater - chemistry
/ Simulation
/ Surface water
2020
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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
by
Bopp, Laurent
, Terhaar, Jens
, Kwiatkowski, Lester
in
21st century
/ 21st century AD
/ 704/106/694/1108
/ 704/106/694/2786
/ 704/47/4113
/ 704/829/826
/ 704/829/827
/ Acidification
/ Analysis
/ Animals
/ Anthropogenic factors
/ Aquatic Organisms
/ Aragonite
/ Arctic climate changes
/ Arctic climates
/ Arctic Regions
/ Calcite
/ Calcium carbonate
/ Calcium Carbonate - analysis
/ Carbon
/ Carbon - analysis
/ Carbon - chemistry
/ Carbon Dioxide - analysis
/ Carbon sequestration
/ Climate change
/ Climatic changes
/ Deep water
/ Deep water formation
/ Density
/ Density currents
/ Ecosystem
/ Emissions
/ Environmental impact
/ Forecasts and trends
/ Geophysics
/ History, 21st Century
/ Human Activities
/ Human beings
/ Human influences
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
/ Influence on nature
/ Marine ecosystems
/ Minerals
/ multidisciplinary
/ Observations
/ Ocean acidification
/ Ocean surface
/ Oceans
/ Oceans and Seas
/ Physics
/ Salinity
/ Science
/ Science (multidisciplinary)
/ Seawater - chemistry
/ Simulation
/ Surface water
2020
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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
by
Bopp, Laurent
, Terhaar, Jens
, Kwiatkowski, Lester
in
21st century
/ 21st century AD
/ 704/106/694/1108
/ 704/106/694/2786
/ 704/47/4113
/ 704/829/826
/ 704/829/827
/ Acidification
/ Analysis
/ Animals
/ Anthropogenic factors
/ Aquatic Organisms
/ Aragonite
/ Arctic climate changes
/ Arctic climates
/ Arctic Regions
/ Calcite
/ Calcium carbonate
/ Calcium Carbonate - analysis
/ Carbon
/ Carbon - analysis
/ Carbon - chemistry
/ Carbon Dioxide - analysis
/ Carbon sequestration
/ Climate change
/ Climatic changes
/ Deep water
/ Deep water formation
/ Density
/ Density currents
/ Ecosystem
/ Emissions
/ Environmental impact
/ Forecasts and trends
/ Geophysics
/ History, 21st Century
/ Human Activities
/ Human beings
/ Human influences
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
/ Influence on nature
/ Marine ecosystems
/ Minerals
/ multidisciplinary
/ Observations
/ Ocean acidification
/ Ocean surface
/ Oceans
/ Oceans and Seas
/ Physics
/ Salinity
/ Science
/ Science (multidisciplinary)
/ Seawater - chemistry
/ Simulation
/ Surface water
2020
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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
Journal Article
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
2020
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Overview
The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite (
Ω
arag
) and calcite (
Ω
calc
)
1
,
2
. Because of its naturally low
Ω
arag
and
Ω
calc
(refs.
2
,
3
), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts
4
–
7
. However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models
8
. Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged
Ω
arag
and
Ω
calc
to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected
3
,
8
and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions
9
–
11
, is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems.
Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.
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