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In this study, detailed characteristics of the leading intraseasonal variability mode of boreal winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the North American (NA) sector are investigated. This intraseasonal SAT mode, characterized by two anomalous centers with an opposite sign—one over central NA and another over east Siberia (ES)/Alaska—bears a great resemblance to the “warm Arctic–cold continent” pattern of the interannual SAT variability over NA. This intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation exert a pronounced influence on regional weather extremes, including precipitation over the northwest coast of NA, sea ice concentration over the Chukchi and Bering Seas, and extreme warm and cold events over the NA continent and Arctic region. Surface warming and cooling signals of the intraseasonal SAT mode are connected to temperature anomalies in a deep-tropospheric layer up to 300 hPa with a decreasing amplitude with altitude. Particularly, a coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere is found during evolution of the intraseasonal SAT variability, although whether the stratospheric processes are essential in sustaining the leading intraseasonal SAT mode is difficult to determine based on observations alone. Two origins of wave sources are identified in contributing to vertically propagating planetary waves near Alaska: one over ES/Alaska associated with local intraseasonal variability and another from the subtropical North Pacific via Rossby wave trains induced by tropical convective activity over the western Pacific, possibly associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation.

Using 51 models of the AMIP and historical experiments of CMIP6, we investigate the inter‐model diversity of atmospheric and coupled models in the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR)–El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship. In atmospheric models, the Walker Circulation (WC) intensity associated with the western Pacific convective activity is most responsible for the inter‐model diversity. Models with strong WC have a strong ISMR–ENSO relationship via enhancing ENSO‐induced anomalies of the WC and monsoon circulation. The secondary source is the monsoon circulation differences associated with meridional rainfall contrast over the Indian monsoon region. In coupled models, the primary (secondary) source is the ENSO amplitude (WC intensity). In observation, the decadal variation of WC can also explain the changes in the ISMR–ENSO relationship. This study provides a basis for improving the model performance and advances our understanding of the observed ISMR–ENSO relationship changes. Plain Language Summary Numerical simulation using climate models is an important method in climate research. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) prediction is based primarily on the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship simulated by the current climate models is too diverse, which restricts the overall simulation and prediction of the ISMR by models. This study explores the main factors leading to the model diversity in the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship and finds that the simulated intensity of the mean state of the convective activity over the western Pacific is most responsible for the model diversity in the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship. Atmospheric models with more vigorous convection over the western Pacific tend to simulate a stronger ISMR–ENSO relationship. These results suggest that improving the simulation of the western Pacific convection in atmospheric models is key to improving the model performance for the ISMR–ENSO relationship simulation and ISMR prediction. Key Points In atmospheric models, the primary source of model diversity is the intensity of convective activity in the western Pacific The secondary source of atmospheric model diversity is the strength of monsoon circulation related to meridional rainfall contrast In coupled models, the primary (secondary) source of model diversity is the ENSO amplitude (Walker circulation)

During boreal summer, large scale subsidence and a persistent northerly flow, known as the Etesians, characterize the tropospheric circulation over the eastern Mediterranean. The Etesians bring clear skies and alleviate the impact of heat waves over the region. The intraseasonal variability of the Etesians and subsidence over the eastern Mediterranean has been thought to be influenced by the South Asian monsoon and atmospheric processes over the North Atlantic. Here, we employ causal effect networks and causal maps, obtained by applying the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm, to identify causal precursors of Etesians. We find that both wave train activity over the North Atlantic/North American region and convective activity over South Asia associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are causally related to the Etesians at 3-day time scale. Thus, intraseasonal ISM variability affects the eastern Mediterranean circulation, though its influence is conveyed via a Middle East ridge. On longer weekly time scale, the mid-latitude influence weakens, while the influence of the tropical convective activity via the Middle East ridge remains stable. Moreover, the heat low over the Arabian Peninsula, a feature strongly responsible for the development of the Etesians, is caused by a stronger Middle East ridge and not by North Atlantic wave activity. Finally, we discuss potential implication for circulation changes in the eastern Mediterranean due to anthropogenic global warming.

The interannual variability of precipitation during the summer monsoon transition over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) is substantially influenced by the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) of the tropical ocean, showing a robust relationship between April and May (AM) precipitation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Dynamic composites and statistical analyses supported by model experiments indicate that the observed anomalous AM precipitation is associated with circulation anomalies over the Pacific and, in addition, affected by the response to the tropical SSTAs forcing from the Indian Ocean (IO): (i) Less (greater) than normal AM precipitation over the ICP occurs during the El Niño (La Niña) years, which is consistent with late (early) Bay of Bengal (BoB) summer monsoon onset. (ii) The dry (wet) AM precipitation years are associated with the anomalous western North Pacific (WNP) anti-cyclone (cyclone) induced by El Niño (La Niña) concurrent with the anti-cyclone (cyclone) over the BoB, suppressing (favoring) the meridional flow of warm and moist air from the Pacific and Indian ocean and thus cutting (providing) moisture supply for the ICP. (iii) The reduced tropical convective activity over Maritime Continent (MC) is related to the weakened local Hadley circulation concurrent with the weakened overturning Walker circulation, and favors a drier than normal AM precipitation over the ICP, to which the wetter years are opposite. These symmetric atmospheric circulation patterns characterizing dry and wet AM precipitation over the ICP are also reproduced by numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model.

The main goal of the AR Colloquium Summer School was to provide the next generation of atmospheric scientists an improved understanding of 1) the fundamental dynamics and physics associated with ARs, including their role in the water cycle and impacts in different regions across the globe; 2) the techniques to detect, observe, model, and forecast ARs at all relevant time scales, including in future climate scenarios; and 3) applications of AR science to water management, engineering, and hazard resilience. [...]Hans Christian Steen Larsen and Sarah Aarons shared knowledge on AR isotopes, Lagrangian analysis, aerosols and chemistry. Student projects included influences of ARs on precipitation and feedbacks at high latitudes, their response to changes in the position of tropical convective activity connected to ENSO variability, the role of the resolution and existence of topography over the western United States on AR-associated precipitation patterns, exploration of the Maya Express on flooding over the central United States and AR variability along the Chilean coastline. During the first event, students visited the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in San Diego.

At present, anthropogenic halogens and oceanic emissions of very short-lived substances (VSLSs) both contribute to the observed stratospheric ozone depletion. Emissions of the long-lived anthropogenic halogens have been reduced and are currently declining, whereas emissions of the biogenic VSLSs are expected to increase in future climate due to anthropogenic activities affecting oceanic production and emissions. Here, we introduce a new approach for assessing the impact of oceanic halocarbons on stratospheric ozone by calculating their ozone depletion potential (ODP)-weighted emissions. Seasonally and spatially dependent, global distributions are derived within a case-study framework for CHBr3 for the period 1999–2006. At present, ODP-weighted emissions of CHBr3 amount up to 50 % of ODP-weighted anthropogenic emissions of CFC-11 and to 9 % of all long-lived ozone depleting halogens. The ODP-weighted emissions are large where strong oceanic emissions coincide with high-reaching convective activity and show pronounced peaks at the Equator and the coasts with largest contributions from the Maritime Continent and western Pacific Ocean. Variations of tropical convective activity lead to seasonal shifts in the spatial distribution of the trajectory-derived ODP with the updraught mass flux, used as a proxy for trajectory-derived ODP, explaining 71 % of the variance of the ODP distribution. Future climate projections based on the RCP 8.5 scenario suggest a 31 % increase of the ODP-weighted CHBr3 emissions by 2100 compared to present values. This increase is related to a larger convective updraught mass flux in the upper troposphere and increasing emissions in a future climate. However, at the same time, it is reduced by less effective bromine-related ozone depletion due to declining stratospheric chlorine concentrations. The comparison of the ODP-weighted emissions of short- and long-lived halocarbons provides a new concept for assessing the overall impact of oceanic halocarbon emissions on stratospheric ozone depletion for current conditions and future projections.

The intraseasonal oscillations (30–100 days, ISO) in the MLT (mesosphere and lower thermosphere) horizontal wind are investigated based on observations from the Mengcheng meteor radar. There is a clear seasonal variation in ISO in the horizontal wind at 80 km, which is strongest during the winter and weakest during the summer. At 100 km, ISO occurs throughout most of the year except winter, and there are significant differences in periods and amplitudes from year to year. From 2015 to 2016, ISOs with periods of 40–60 days were present in the 100 km horizontal wind, whereas none were simultaneously observed in the 80 km horizontal wind. Cross wavelets were used to study the relationship between ISO in the MLT region and ISO in the lower atmosphere. Some of the ISO activity is linked to tropospheric tropical convective activity, but the ISO connections with that in tropospheric convection are not consistent in the upper mesosphere and in the lower thermosphere.

In August 2021, rain front stagnation in Japan resulted in prolonged and disastrous rainfall across the entire country. During the heavy rainfall period, the large-scale atmospheric field over the East Asian–western North Pacific region was characterized by meridional tripolar circulation anomalies: the Okhotsk high (OH), the trough over the Korean Peninsula (Korean trough), and the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). Simultaneously, tropical convective activity was enhanced over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed over the tropical western–central Pacific. This study investigates the dynamic mechanism of linkage of the extratropical tripolar anomalies and the effects of tropical convective modulation using a reanalysis dataset, a cutoff low detection scheme, the potential vorticity inversion method, and numerical experiments. Upper-tropospheric blocking over eastern Siberia connected to the surface OH is conducive to the stagnation of synoptic depressions, including cutoff lows and troughs, over the Korean Peninsula, contributing to the development and maintenance of the quasi-stationary Korean trough. Rossby waves emanating from the Korean trough excite an anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific. This upper-level anomalous anticyclone acts to enhance the surface NWPSH through zonal heat transport, accompanied by a northward tilting structure with height. Simultaneously, the tropical intraseasonal oscillation is amplified over the Indo–western Pacific Ocean sector under the negative-phase Indian Ocean dipole and multi-year La Niña conditions. The combination of enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed convection across the tropical western–central Pacific reinforces the NWPSH. The anomalous circulation associated with the extratropical tripolar pattern and concurrent tropical heat forcing causes more moisture transport, convergence, and anomalous ascent, which contribute to heavy rainfall in Japan. These results suggest that the dynamically correlated amplification of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies plays a crucial role in precipitation variability in East Asia.

Using the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration archives, this paper analyzes the interdecadal variation of convective activities over the central Pacific (CP) from July to October of 1979–2013 and its impact on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). Concurrent with the interdecadal decrease of TC genesis, the tropical convection underwent a significant interdecadal change in the late 1990s. Overall, the first leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the tropical OLR during July–October turned from a zonal dipole pattern during 1979–1997 to a tripole pattern during 1998–2013. Concomitant to this change, the boreal part of the Walker circulation shrank westward, with its downdraft branch located over the CP. The downward motion anomalies over the CP increased after the late 1990s, as did the trade easterlies. Consistent with the CP convective activity anomalies, the negative low-level relative vorticity anomalies and upper-level divergence anomalies, positive vertical wind shear anomalies and anomalous abundant water vapor can be observed over the southeastern part of the WNP. Additionally, the tropical depression (TD)-type waves associated with the CP convective activities are significantly different before and after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s, the off-equatorial TD-type waves could be distinctly observed, with clear transitions located along the WNP monsoon trough. However, these transitions were vague after the late 1990s. Therefore, the convective activities over the CP may have played an important role in affecting the interdecadal change of TC genesis by affecting the genesis of TD-type waves.

Equatorial Rossby waves (ERWs) are manifest as westward-propagating, planetary- scale waves that feature a symmetric pair of pressure and zonal wind fields about the equator. ERWs can modulate tropical convective activity, especially in South Asia and the Maritime Continents, and represent an important mode of intraseasonal variability additional to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Changes in the frequency and intensity of ERWs during the recent decades were investigated based on observations of tropospheric winds and tropical convection. Spectral analyses indicated that ERWs appear to have intensified especially in the upper troposphere; this is associated with increased convective activity located off the equator. The strengthening and westward shift of the Walker circulation observed in the recent decades acted to increase the tropical vertical westerly shear and, subsequently, may contribute to the increased ERW activity. Further investigation on the dynamical process of the vertical zonal shear enhancement will improve the understanding of the changing ERW characteristics.