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Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
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Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
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Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

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Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation
Journal Article

Sources of Inter‐Model Diversity in the Strength of the Relationship Between the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

2023
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Overview
Using 51 models of the AMIP and historical experiments of CMIP6, we investigate the inter‐model diversity of atmospheric and coupled models in the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR)–El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship. In atmospheric models, the Walker Circulation (WC) intensity associated with the western Pacific convective activity is most responsible for the inter‐model diversity. Models with strong WC have a strong ISMR–ENSO relationship via enhancing ENSO‐induced anomalies of the WC and monsoon circulation. The secondary source is the monsoon circulation differences associated with meridional rainfall contrast over the Indian monsoon region. In coupled models, the primary (secondary) source is the ENSO amplitude (WC intensity). In observation, the decadal variation of WC can also explain the changes in the ISMR–ENSO relationship. This study provides a basis for improving the model performance and advances our understanding of the observed ISMR–ENSO relationship changes. Plain Language Summary Numerical simulation using climate models is an important method in climate research. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) prediction is based primarily on the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship simulated by the current climate models is too diverse, which restricts the overall simulation and prediction of the ISMR by models. This study explores the main factors leading to the model diversity in the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship and finds that the simulated intensity of the mean state of the convective activity over the western Pacific is most responsible for the model diversity in the strength of the ISMR–ENSO relationship. Atmospheric models with more vigorous convection over the western Pacific tend to simulate a stronger ISMR–ENSO relationship. These results suggest that improving the simulation of the western Pacific convection in atmospheric models is key to improving the model performance for the ISMR–ENSO relationship simulation and ISMR prediction. Key Points In atmospheric models, the primary source of model diversity is the intensity of convective activity in the western Pacific The secondary source of atmospheric model diversity is the strength of monsoon circulation related to meridional rainfall contrast In coupled models, the primary (secondary) source of model diversity is the ENSO amplitude (Walker circulation)