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The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7% of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40%, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78% of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39%, 21%, and 18%, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth’s elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.

The degree to which the distribution of mangrove forests will be impacted by climate change depends on the dispersal and establishment of sea-faring propagules, which drive forest rejuvenation, gene flow and range expansion. Climate change affects sea surface density via changes in temperature and salinity. However, these changes have not been mapped and it remains unclear how these factors may impact mangrove propagule dispersal. Here, we provide evidence for strong warming of coastal mangrove waters and elevated geographic variability in surface ocean density under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 by 2100. The largest changes will occur in the Indo West Pacific region, the primary hotspot of mangrove diversity. By comparing propagule densities to predicted sea surface density, we assessed potential effects on mangrove propagule dispersal. In the future, a warmer and fresher ocean is likely to alter dispersal trajectories of mangrove propagules and increase rates of sinking in unsuitable offshore locations, potentially reducing the resilience of mangrove forests.The authors project the impacts of future changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and therefore density on the dispersal of buoyant mangrove propagules. They show that warmer and fresher oceans may increase propagule sinking rates, potentially reducing future mangrove resilience.

The Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) quantifies the ocean's ability to mitigate surface warming through deep heat sequestration. Despite its importance, the main controls on OHUE, and on its two‐fold spread across contemporary climate models, remain unclear. We argue that OHUE is primarily controlled by mid‐latitude ventilation strength in the background climate, itself related to pycnocline depth and stratification. This hypothesis is supported by a strong correlation between mid‐latitude (30–60°) OHUE and the near‐global average (60°S–60°N) pycnocline depth in CMIP5 and CMIP6 AOGCMs under RCP85/SSP585, and in a parameter perturbation ensemble of ocean GCM (MITgcm) experiments. This correlation explains about 70% of the CMIP5‐6 spread in global OHUE. The relationship provides a pathway toward observationally constraining OHUE, and thus reducing uncertainty in projections of future global climate change and sea level rise. Plain Language Summary The ocean absorbs most of the excess heat in the climate system. How effectively this process reduces surface warming depends on how deeply this heat is stored in the ocean, which varies widely across contemporary climate models. Our study shows that around 70% of the variation in deep heat storage across models is explained by differences is how water from the mid‐latitude surface ocean is transported to deeper ocean layers by ocean currents. This difference can be measured by the stratification of seawater density in the base‐state climate, a feature that can be observed in the modern ocean. We show this relationship using a new regional decomposition method. The results of this study can be leveraged with ocean observations to reduce uncertainty in future climate and sea level rise projections. Key Points Pycnocline depth correlates strongly with Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) in CMIP5/CMIP6 and MITgcm A regional OHUE decomposition shows that mid‐latitude heat uptake and sequestration drives the correlation between OHUE of pycnocline depth Inter‐model differences in pycnocline depth explain around 70% of the spread in OHUE across CMIP5 and CMIP6

Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [SFRH/BD/78016/2011]; MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences; European Union [228344-EUROFLEETS]; DFG (German Research Foundation) [WA2175/2-1, WA2175/4-1]; German Climate Modeling consortium PalMod - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); CANIGO project (EU) [MAS-CT96-0060]; DFG

The World Ocean is estimated to store more than 90% of the excess energy resulting from man-made greenhouse gas–driven radiative forcing as heat. Uncertainties of this estimate are related to undersampling of the subpolar and polar regions and of the depths below 2000 m. Here we present measurements from the Weddell Sea that cover the whole water column down to the sea floor, taken by the same accurate method at locations revisited every few years since 1989. Our results show widespread warming with similar long-term temperature trends below 700-m depth at all sampling sites. The mean heating rate below 2000m exceeds that of the global ocean by a factor of about 5. Salinity tends to increase—in contrast to other Southern Ocean regions—at most sites and depths below 700 m, but nowhere strongly enough to fully compensate for the warming effect on seawater density, which hence shows a general decrease. In the top 700m neither temperature nor salinity shows clear trends. A closer look at the vertical distribution of changes along an approximately zonal and a meridional section across the Weddell Gyre reveals that the strongest vertically coherent warming is observed at the flanks of the gyre over the deep continental slopes and at its northern edge where the gyre connects to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Most likely, the warming of the interior Weddell Sea is driven by changes of the Weddell Gyre strength and its interaction with the ACC.

In preparing gravity gradient reference maps for navigation purposes, researchers have tended to use a constant value for the density of seawater. However, the actual seawater density at a particular location may vary due to the effects of longitude, latitude and bathymetry. In this study, the right rectangular prism method was used to calculate the disturbing gravity gradient caused by the mass deficiency of seawater for three different seawater profiles in an area east of Taiwan. For this purpose, two seawater density models were used as alternatives to the constant seawater density model, and the alteration in the gravity gradient was calculated to quantify the error in the gravity gradient as a result of using a constant seawater density. The results demonstrated that the error in the gravity gradient can reach 1E for water at large depths. Moreover, the difference between the amplitude of the error of the corrected thermocline and that for the uncorrected seawater density model was found to be quite small. If a gravity gradient reference map with accuracy better than 1E is to be realized, the seawater density cannot be taken as constant during forward modeling.

Seawater density is an important physical property in oceanography that affects the accuracy of calculations such as gravity fields and tidal potentials and the calibration of acoustic and optical oceanographic sensors. In related studies, constant density values are frequently used, which can introduce significant errors. Therefore, this study employs a basic convolutional neural network model to construct a comprehensive model showing the seawater density distribution across the globe. The model takes into account depth, latitude, longitude, and month as inputs. Numerous real seawater datasets were used to train the model, and it has been shown that the model has an absolute mean error and root mean square error of less than 1 kg/m3 in 99% of the test set samples. The model effectively demonstrates the influence of input parameters on the distribution of seawater density. In this paper, we present a newly developed global model for distributing seawater density which is both comprehensive and accurate, surpassing previous models. The utilization of the model presented in this paper for estimating seawater density can minimize errors in theoretical ocean models and serve as a foundation for designing and analyzing ocean exploration systems.

We study the vertical dispersion and distribution of negatively buoyant rigid microplastics within a realistic circulation model of the Mediterranean sea. We first propose an equation describing their idealized dynamics. In that framework, we evaluate the importance of some relevant physical effects (inertia, Coriolis force, small-scale turbulence and variable seawater density), and we bound the relative error of simplifying the dynamics to a constant sinking velocity added to a large-scale velocity field. We then calculate the amount and vertical distribution of microplastic particles on the water column of the open ocean if their release from the sea surface is continuous at rates compatible with observations in the Mediterranean. The vertical distribution is found to be almost uniform with depth for the majority of our parameter range. Transient distributions from flash releases reveal a non-Gaussian character of the dispersion and various diffusion laws, both normal and anomalous. The origin of these behaviors is explored in terms of horizontal and vertical flow organization.

The determination of salinity by means of electrical conductivity relies on stable salt proportions in the North Atlantic Ocean, because standard seawater, which is required for salinometer calibration, is produced from water of the North Atlantic. To verify the long-term stability of the standard seawater composition, it was proposed to perform measurements of the standard seawater density. Since the density is sensitive to all salt components, a density measurement can detect any change in the composition. A conversion of the density values to salinity can be performed by means of a density–salinity relation. To use such a relation with a target uncertainty in salinity comparable to that in salinity obtained from conductivity measurements, a density measurement with an uncertainty of 2 g m−3 is mandatory. We present a new density–salinity relation based on such accurate density measurements. The substitution measurement method used is described and density corrections for uniform isotopic and chemical compositions are reported. The comparison of densities calculated using the new relation with those calculated using the present reference equations of state TEOS-10 suggests that the density accuracy of TEOS-10 (as well as that of EOS-80) has been overestimated, as the accuracy of some of its underlying density measurements had been overestimated. The new density–salinity relation may be used to verify the stable composition of standard seawater by means of routine density measurements.

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.