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Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the diminishing tempo effect in these TFR upturns. As countries proceed through their postponement transitions, tempo effects will decline further and eventually disappear, thus putting continued upward pressure on period fertility. However, such an upward trend may be obscured for a few years by the effects of economic recession.

Russia has a history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 birth cohort to 1.6 for the 1968 cohort. The government of President Putin became concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. A comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect in January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from 1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011, which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures are likely to turn out to be a failure.

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism—a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries—Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States—about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that declines in fertility foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility.

This study reports on the effects of pretreated biogas slurry on degraded farm soil properties, microflora and the production of Capsicum spp. The responses of soil properties, microorganisms and Capsicum spp. production to biogas slurry pretreated soil were determined. The biogas slurry pretreatment of degraded soil increases the total nitrogen (0.15–0.32 g/kg), total phosphorus (0.13–0.75 g/kg), available phosphorus (102.62–190.68 mg/kg), available potassium (78.94–140.31 mg/kg), organic carbon content (0.67–3.32 g/kg) and pH value of the soil, while the population, diversity and distribution of soil bacteria and fungi were significantly affected. Interestingly, soil ammonium nitrogen, soil pH and soil nitrate nitrogen were highly correlated with the population of bacteria and fungi present in the pretreated soil. The soil with biogas slurry pretreatment of 495 m3/hm2 favored the seedling survival rate, flowering rate and fruit-bearing rate of Capsicum spp. and significantly reduced the rate of rigid seedlings. In this study, the application of 495 m3/hm2 biogas slurry to pretreat degraded soil has achieved the multiple goals of biogas slurry valorization, soil biofertilization and preventing and controlling plant diseases caused by soil-borne pathogenic microorganisms. These findings are of significant importance for the safe and environmentally friendly application of biogas slurry for soil pretreatment.

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three-stage \"soft-landing\" strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7-year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014-15 to 2032-35 a universal two-child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032-35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.

Should governments implement policies that affect fertility decisions on efficiency grounds? What is the correct notion of efficiency to use? To address these issues, this paper develops an extension of the notion of Pareto efficiency, referred to as Millian efficiency, to evaluate symmetric allocations in an overlapping generations setting with endogenous fertility. This extension is based on preferences of those agents who are actually alive, and exclusively allows for welfare comparisons of symmetric allocations. First, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions to determine whether an allocation is Millian efficient or not, and we show that the sufficient conditions for dynamic efficiency offered by Cass (1972) and Balasko and Shell (1980) cannot be directly applied when fertility decisions are endogenous. Second, we characterize Millian efficient allocations as the equilibria of a decentralized price mechanism, and we present a sufficient condition for dynamic efficiency that uses the sequence of prices associated to such decentralized equilibria. Finally, we analyse how intergenerational policies should be designed to restore efficiency and achieve net welfare gains in two different settings in which markets yield inefficient allocations: dynamic inefficiencies and financial market incompleteness regarding human capital. In the former, a pay-as-you-go social security system eliminates dynamic inefficiencies, provided pensions are explicitly linked with fertility decisions. In the latter, a specific link between social security and public education becomes a necessary condition for Millian efficiency.

One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm, and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. We revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis. We do not find strong evidence to justify the model specification from the original paper. Moreover, even if the original specification is appropriate, we show that the results are not robust to more general measures of child tax benefits. (JEL H24, J13)

Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects: that is, changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust, and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1995.

The historic process of fertility decline was interrupted during the central decades of the 20th century with an unexpected period of increasing fertility that has been called the baby boom. Normally it is considered a phenomenon exclusive to countries participating in the historic demographic transition. A recent study suggests that a similar trend change in fertility may have also taken place in a few developing nations at approximately the same time and with similar characteristics to the fertility boom in the developed world. The main goal of this paper is to examine the extent to which these trend changes took place in Latin America and whether or not their characteristics were similar to those holding in the developed world. El proceso de la transición demográfica se vio interrumpido durante las décadas centrales del siglo xx por un periodo de crecimiento inesperado de la fecundidad que en los países desarrollados se ha denominado el baby boom. Normalmente se ha considerado un fenómeno exclusivo de los países que participaban en la transición demográfica. Un estudio reciente sugiere que un cambio similar de tendencia en la fecundidad pudo haberse producido en unos pocos países en desarrollo aproximadamente al mismo tiempo y con características similares al boom de la fecundidad en el mundo desarrollado. El propósito principal de este trabajo es plantear en qué medida la experiencia de la fecundidad y los ciclos de la fecundidad de Latinoamérica son comparables a los de otras sociedades desarrolladas y otras sociedades en vías de desarrollo durante ese mismo periodo histórico.

Using detailed data on period and cohort fertility in four European countries, this paper discusses various indicators of period fertility, including indicators adjusted for changes in fertility timing. Empirical analysis focuses on the comparison of cohort fertility and corresponding indicators of period fertility; particular attention is paid to the periods of intensive postponement of childbearing. Some period indicators come consistently closer to the completed cohort fertility than the total fertility rates. This pattern of differential period-cohort approximation widely varies by birth order. Quite a high level of approximation is provided by the tempo-adjusted birth probabilities of parity 1 and a combined indicator of total fertility. Two examples illustrate the use of indicators discussed in the paper: the first provides an estimation of thetempo(timing) andquantum(level) components in fertility change in the Czech Republic and the second presents projections of cohort fertility in the Czech Republic and Italy.