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Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

by Yi, Zeng

in Age / Aging / Analysis / Childbearing / Childbirth / Childbirth & labor / Children / China / China (People's Republic) - Population policy / Cost of living / Demographic change / Demographic research / Demographic transition / Demographics / Demography / Development studies / Environmental policy / Evaluation / Family planning / Family size / Fertility / Fertility - China (People's Republic) / Fertility increase / Fertility rate / Forecasts and trends / Government policy / Growth / Labor force / Living alone / Market trend/market analysis / Marriage / Men / Older adults / Older people / Peoples Republic of China / Policy Reform / Population / Population ageing / Population aging / Population growth / Population policy / Public Policy / Reforms / Rural communities / Rural urban differences / Social policy / Socioeconomic development / Socioeconomic factors / Socioeconomics / United States environmental policy / Urban areas

2007

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Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

by Yi, Zeng

2007

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Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

by Yi, Zeng

2007

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Journal Article

Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

Yi, Zeng

2007

Overview

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three-stage \"soft-landing\" strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7-year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014-15 to 2032-35 a universal two-child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032-35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.

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Publisher

Blackwell Publishing Ltd,Blackwell Publishing,The Population Council, Inc,John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Subject

/ Aging