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"GLOBAL WARMING"
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Global warming
\"Describes the current scientific evidence for global warming and the causes and effects of climate change. Includes charts and maps\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
Apparently contradictory conclusions regarding the ‘global warming hiatus’ are reconciled, strengthening the current scientific understanding that long-term global warming is extremely likely to be of anthropogenic origin.
Analysis of a global warming hiatus
After a spike in global-mean temperature associated with the 1998 El Niño, the climate system experienced several years of reduced warming, and perhaps even slight cooling. This period, variously termed the 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown', should have come as no surprise given our understanding of El Niño and natural climate variability. However, soon after the recognition of the reduced warming, it appeared that models and observations were diverging, raising the question of whether the models were missing important processes. Although global warming has since recommenced, the hiatus sparked an enormous research effort. Iselin Medhaug
et al
. synthesize the literature and reassess the model and observational evidence. Their assessment reconciles the apparent contradictions between models and data and obviates the need to revise our understanding of the underlying physics of climate systems. The hiatus was an episode of natural variability after all.
Journal Article
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement
1
. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy
2
–
5
. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming
6
,
7
. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales
8
,
9
. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
Aiming for declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including sea-level rise and cryosphere changes.
Journal Article
The global warming reader : a century of writing about climate change
A collection of writings with opposing viewpoints concerning the phenomenon of global warming, including essays and excerpts by scientists, politicians, novelists, religious leaders and others.
Book
Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa
We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971−2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.
Journal Article
Sila's revenge
Eighteen-year old Ashley Anowiak is an eco-warrior who is prepared to go to any lengths to bring the world's attention to the plight of Planet Earth. She's already burned down the office for the local oil company. Now she's ready to move out of our her own Arctic community and into the international spotlight. After performing at Carnegie Hall, she and her band, The Dream Drummers, are pirated off to Australia by the powerful James Masters. Now, in front of an audience of half a million, Ashely must put on the performance of a lifetime to save the world.
Book
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.
A method of tracking changes in estimates of the remaining carbon budget over time should help to reconcile differences between these estimates and clarify their usefulness for setting emission reduction targets.
Journal Article
Snow children
A story about two snow children who discover the importance of global warming and decide to do something about it.
Book
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability
Will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate? Twenty years after this question was first posed, we argue that the scientific case for climate liability is closed. Here we detail the scientific and legal implications of an ‘end-to-end’ attribution that links fossil fuel producers to specific damages from warming. Using scope 1 and 3 emissions data from major fossil fuel companies, peer-reviewed attribution methods and advances in empirical climate economics, we illustrate the trillions in economic losses attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from individual companies. Emissions linked to Chevron, the highest-emitting investor-owned company in our data, for example, very likely caused between US $791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991–2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. More broadly, we outline a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework that formalizes how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible and for which harms. Drawing quantitative linkages between individual emitters and particularized harms is now feasible, making science no longer an obstacle to the justiciability of climate liability claims.
A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, which could inform climate liability claims.
Journal Article