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Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.
Climate extremes, exposure and vulnerability all contribute to global difference in heatwave risk. Here the authors investigated the inequality in global heatwave risk under both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios and found that heatwave risk for the poor under 1.5 °C scenario exceeds that risk for the rich under 2 °C scenario.
Journal Article
Human health and physical activity during heat exposure
This book provides fundamental concepts in human thermal physiology and their applications in general public, occupational, military, and athletics settings from the biometeorological perspective. The book includes a section on human physiology, epidemiology and special considerations in aforementioned populations, and behavioral and technological adjustments people may take to combat thermal environmental stress and safeguard their health. The book is the first of its kind to compile multiple disciplines--human physiology, climatology, and medicine--in one to provide fundamental concepts in human thermal physiology and their applications in general public, occupational, military, and athletics settings from the biometeorological perspective; Developed by experts, scientists, and physicians from exercise physiology, climatology, public health, sports medicine, and military medicine; Highlights special considerations and applications of thermal physiology to general public, occupational, military, and athletics settings.
Book
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study
Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.
We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.
We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.
Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.
UK Medical Research Council.
Journal Article
Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study
Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.
We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.
We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.
A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.
Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.
Journal Article
Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks
Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.
Journal Article
Evaluation of the Impact of Ambient Temperatures on Occupational Injuries in Spain
Extreme cold and heat have been linked to an increased risk of occupational injuries. However, the evidence is still limited to a small number of studies of people with relatively few injuries and with a limited geographic extent, and the corresponding economic effect has not been studied in detail.
We assessed the relationship between ambient temperatures and occupational injuries in Spain along with its economic effect.
The daily number of occupational injuries that caused at least one day of leave and the daily maximum temperature were obtained for each Spanish province for the years 1994-2013. We estimated temperature-injuries associations with distributed lag nonlinear models, and then pooled the results using a multivariate meta-regression model. We calculated the number of injuries attributable to cold and heat, the corresponding workdays lost, and the resulting economic effect.
The study included 15,992,310 occupational injuries. Overall, 2.72% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.44-2.97] of all occupational injuries were attributed to nonoptimal ambient temperatures, with moderate heat accounting for the highest fraction. This finding corresponds to an estimated 0.67 million (95% CI: 0.60-0.73) person-days of work lost every year in Spain due to temperature, or an annual average of 42 d per 1,000 workers. The estimated annual economic burden is €370 million, or 0.03% of Spain's GDP (€2,015).
Our findings suggest that extreme ambient temperatures increased the risk of occupational injuries, with substantial estimated health and economic costs. These results call for public health interventions to protect workers in the context of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2590.
Journal Article
Heat-related Emergency Hospitalizations for Respiratory Diseases in the Medicare Population
The heat-related risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among the elderly has not been quantified in the United States on a national scale. With climate change predictions of more frequent and more intense heat waves, it is of paramount importance to quantify the health risks related to heat, especially for the most vulnerable.
To estimate the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases associated with outdoor heat in the U.S. elderly.
An observational study of approximately 12.5 million Medicare beneficiaries in 213 United States counties, January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2008. We estimate a national average relative risk of hospitalization for each 10°F (5.6°C) increase in daily outdoor temperature using Bayesian hierarchical models.
We obtained daily county-level rates of Medicare emergency respiratory hospitalizations (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, 464-466, 480-487, 490-492) in 213 U.S. counties from 1999 through 2008. Overall, each 10°F increase in daily temperature was associated with a 4.3% increase in same-day emergency hospitalizations for respiratory diseases (95% posterior interval, 3.8, 4.8%). Counties' relative risks were significantly higher in counties with cooler average summer temperatures.
We found strong evidence of an association between outdoor heat and respiratory hospitalizations in the largest population of elderly studied to date. Given projections of increasing temperatures from climate change and the increasing global prevalence of chronic pulmonary disease, the relationship between heat and respiratory morbidity is a growing concern.
Journal Article
Environmental challenges facing athletes, stakeholders and spectators at Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games: an evidence-based review of mitigation strategies and recommendations
The upcoming Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games could face environmental challenges related to heat, air quality and water quality. These challenges will pose potential threats to athletes and impact thousands of stakeholders and millions of spectators. Recognising the multifaceted nature of these challenges, a range of strategies will be essential for mitigating adverse effects on participants, stakeholders and spectators alike. From personalised interventions for athletes and attendees to comprehensive measures implemented by organisers, a holistic approach is crucial to address these challenges and the possible interplay of heat, air and water quality factors during the event. This evidence-based review highlights various environmental challenges anticipated at Paris 2024, offering strategies applicable to athletes, stakeholders and spectators. Additionally, it provides recommendations for Local Organising Committees and the International Olympic Committee that may be applicable to future Games. In summary, the review offers solutions for consideration by the stakeholders responsible for and affected by the anticipated environmental challenges at Paris 2024.
Journal Article
Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan
Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.
We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.
Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.
In the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).
Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.
Journal Article