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Due to multiple properties, the international crude oil price is influenced by various and complex interrelated factors from different determinants in different periods. However, the previous studies on crude oil price fluctuation with economic policy uncertainty (EPU) haven’t taken a wider range of volatility sources into their analysis frameworks. In this paper, the time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model is introduced in order to avoid important information loss, as well as capture the time-varying impact on crude oil price fluctuation by EPU. Furthermore, the differences on crude oil fluctuations from net-oil exporting and net-oil importing country’s EPU are also elaborated. Here are three findings as follows. First, the impacts of global EPU on the crude oil price volatility show time-varying characteristics both in time duration and time-points. Second, the instantaneous impacts of global EPU on the price volatility of crude oil are directly relevant to major events, and the impacts are different in event types as well. Third, the time-varying characteristics depicting the impacts of EPU in countries who are net-oil exporter and net-oil importer on price volatility of crude oil show heterogeneity in fluctuation range, fluctuation intensity, and stage.

The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC) models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which are the elements of Taylor rule for the four largest oil importers (the USA, the EU, China and Japan). Our results indicate that oil price increases transmit to output and inflation and lead to fluctuations in industrial production, consumer prices and immediate interest rates which in turn influence the monetary policy stance in the following periods. The basic conclusion of research is that the channels through which oil prices affect output, inflation and interest rates should be identified by the monetary policy authorities of the USA, the EU, China and Japan. We also emphasize the importance of the determination of the optimal monetary policy framework to eliminate the negative consequences of oil price increases.

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to evaluate empirically the impact of oil price fluctuations on the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in oil-importing MENA countries.Design/methodology/approachThe study used the newly developed panel autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) approach in order to address any potential endogeneity between research variables.FindingsThe empirical results show a unidirectional causality in the long run from oil price to both economic growth and banking sector development for oil-importing countries. Also, banking sector development not only leads directly to economic growth but also can play a moderator role in the oil price—economic growth nexus.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has two principal limitations. On the one hand, this study was conducted in a relatively limited sample of countries. On the other hand, the study did not consider others indicators for banking sector development and others macroeconomic variables.Practical implicationsThe results found have imperative implications for banks' managers, regulators and researchers. Bank managers should be more concerned with the negative repercussions of oil price fluctuations on the development of their banks. The regulatory authorities must emphasize policies and strategies to further strengthen their banking sector in order to alleviate the negative influence of oil price shocks on economic growth. Researchers focused on finance-growth nexus must take into account the potential influence of oil price shocks.Originality/valueThe developed conceptual model allows examining to what extent the oil price fluctuations might affect the relationship between economic growth and banking sector development. This effect is neither evaluated nor clarified in the relevant literature.

This study employs the vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the impact of oil price shocks on components of government spending on both oil-exporting and oil importing countries over the period from 1980 to 2018. While the vast majority of previous studies focused on the impact of oil price shocks on government spending, this study emphasized the impact of these shocks on the current and capital government expenditure. It was found that oil price shocks affect government current expenditure positively in the two groups of countries. While it affects government capital expenditure positively in oil-exporting countries and negatively in oil-importing countries.

Our study examines the asymmetric responses of food prices to oil prices in Indonesia as a net oil and food-importing country. We apply Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) to investigate the responses of food prices to oil prices. Due to the different impacts of oil price on sub-component of the food price index, this study decomposes the general food prices index into 11 sub-components food price indices. The oil prices asymmetrically affect food prices but incomplete pass-through except the preserved fish prices. The highest impact of oil price is on beans and nuts prices, followed by cereals, roots, and their product prices. More interestingly, the response of food price to an increase in oil price is higher than the response of food price to a decrease in oil price known as rockets and feathers phenomenon for general food prices, cereals, roots, and their product prices, meat and its product prices, eggs, milk, and their product prices, bean and nuts prices, fruits prices, and fats and oil prices.

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economicconsequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

We describe unique aspects of microstates-they are less diversified, suffer from lumpiness of investment, they are geographically at the periphery and prone to natural disasters, and have less access to capital markets-that may make the current account more vulnerable, penalizing exports and making imports dearer. After reviewing the \"old\" and \"new\" view on current account deficits, we attempt to identify policies to help reduce the current account. Probit regressions suggest that microstates are more likely to have large current account adjustments if (i) they are already running large current account deficits; (ii) they run budget surpluses; (iii) the terms of trade improve; (iv) they are less open; and (v) GDP growth declines. Monetary policy, financial development, per capita GDP, and the de jure exchange rate classification matter less. However, changes in the real effective exchange rate do not help drive reductions in the current account deficit in microstates. We explore reasons for this and provide policy implications.

This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical risks on renewable energy generation in MENAT oil-importing countries, namely, Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey over the period 1990–2020 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The main findings emphasize that geopolitical risks play a crucial role in inducing renewable energy development in MENAT oil-importing countries in the short and long run. Financial development appears to positively and significantly affect renewable energy generation in the three countries. Furthermore, the speeds of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium are 36.78%, 66.03%, and 17.81% annually in Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey, respectively. In today’s volatile and turbulent world, dramatically rising geopolitical risks make the transition to renewable energy an inevitable reality. Consequently, it is incumbent upon policymakers and relevant authorities in MENAT oil-importing countries to preemptively redirect their efforts and strategies to conform to the demands of the inevitable transition to renewable energy sources and boost energy self-reliance.