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Background IMCY-0098, a synthetic peptide developed to halt disease progression via elimination of key immune cells in the autoimmune cascade, has shown a promising safety profile for the treatment of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in a recent phase 1b trial. This exploratory analysis of data from that trial aimed to identify the patient biomarkers at baseline associated with a positive response to treatment and examined the associations between immune response parameters and clinical efficacy endpoints (as surrogates for mechanism of action endpoints) using an artificial intelligence-based approach of unsupervised explainable machine learning. Methods We conducted an exploratory analysis of data from a phase 1b, dose-escalation, randomized, placebo-controlled study of IMCY-0098 in patients with recent-onset T1D. Here, a panel of markers of T cell activation, memory T cells, and effector T cell response were analyzed via descriptive statistics. Artificial intelligence-based analyses of associations between all variables, including immune responses and clinical responses, were performed using the Knowledge Extraction and Management (KEM ® ) v 3.6.2 analytical platform. Results The relationship between all available patient data was investigated using unsupervised machine learning implemented in the KEM ® environment. Of 15 associations found for the dose C group (450 μg subcutaneously followed by 3 × 225 μg subcutaneously), seven involved human leukocyte antigen (HLA) type, all of which identified improvement/absence of worsening of disease parameters in DR4 + patients and worsening/absence of improvement in DR4 − patients. This association with DR4 + and non-DR3 was confirmed using the endpoints normalized area under the curve C-peptide from mixed meal tolerance tests where presence of DR4 HLA haplotype was associated with an improvement in both endpoints. Exploratory immune analysis showed that IMCY-0098 dose B (150 μg subcutaneously followed by 3 × 75 μg subcutaneously) and dose C led to an increase in presumed/potentially protective antigen-specific cytolytic CD4 + T cells and a decrease in pathogenic CD8 + T cells, consistent with the expected mechanism of action of IMCY-0098. The analysis identified significant associations between immune and clinical responses to IMCY-0098. Conclusions Promising preliminary efficacy results support the design of a phase 2 study of IMCY-0098 in patients with recent-onset T1D. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03272269; EudraCT: 2016–003514-27.

Spatial transcriptomics allows for the measurement of RNA abundance at a high spatial resolution, making it possible to systematically link the morphology of cellular neighbourhoods and spatially localized gene expression. Here, we report the development of a deep learning algorithm for the prediction of local gene expression from haematoxylin-and-eosin-stained histopathology images using a new dataset of 30,612 spatially resolved gene expression data matched to histopathology images from 23 patients with breast cancer. We identified over 100 genes, including known breast cancer biomarkers of intratumoral heterogeneity and the co-localization of tumour growth and immune activation, the expression of which can be predicted from the histopathology images at a resolution of 100 µm. We also show that the algorithm generalizes well to The Cancer Genome Atlas and to other breast cancer gene expression datasets without the need for re-training. Predicting the spatially resolved transcriptome of a tissue directly from tissue images may enable image-based screening for molecular biomarkers with spatial variation. Deep learning can predict spatial variations in gene expression from haematoxylin-and-eosin-stained histopathology images of patients with cancer.

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) receive highly targeted biologic therapies without previous knowledge of target expression levels in the diseased tissue. Approximately 40% of patients do not respond to individual biologic therapies and 5–20% are refractory to all. In a biopsy-based, precision-medicine, randomized clinical trial in RA (R4RA; n  = 164), patients with low/absent synovial B cell molecular signature had a lower response to rituximab (anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody) compared with that to tocilizumab (anti-IL6R monoclonal antibody) although the exact mechanisms of response/nonresponse remain to be established. Here, in-depth histological/molecular analyses of R4RA synovial biopsies identify humoral immune response gene signatures associated with response to rituximab and tocilizumab, and a stromal/fibroblast signature in patients refractory to all medications. Post-treatment changes in synovial gene expression and cell infiltration highlighted divergent effects of rituximab and tocilizumab relating to differing response/nonresponse mechanisms. Using ten-by-tenfold nested cross-validation, we developed machine learning algorithms predictive of response to rituximab (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.74), tocilizumab (AUC = 0.68) and, notably, multidrug resistance (AUC = 0.69). This study supports the notion that disease endotypes, driven by diverse molecular pathology pathways in the diseased tissue, determine diverse clinical and treatment–response phenotypes. It also highlights the importance of integration of molecular pathology signatures into clinical algorithms to optimize the future use of existing medications and inform the development of new drugs for refractory patients. Biomarker analysis of the phase 4 R4RA trial identifies pretreatment synovial biopsy features selectively associated with response to rituximab or tocilizumab, and leads to the development of models that might predict treatment benefit in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Background Predicting immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) response remains a significant challenge in cancer immunotherapy. Many existing approaches rely on differential gene expression analysis or predefined immune signatures, which may fail to capture the complex regulatory mechanisms underlying immune response. Network-based models attempt to integrate biological interactions, but they often lack a quantitative framework to assess how individual genes contribute within pathways, limiting the specificity and interpretability of biomarkers. Given these limitations, we developed PathNetDRP, a framework that integrates biological pathways, protein-protein interaction networks, and machine learning to identify functionally relevant biomarkers for ICI response prediction. Results We introduce PathNetDRP, a novel biomarker discovery approach that applies the PageRank algorithm to prioritize ICI-associated genes, maps them to relevant biological pathways, and calculates PathNetGene scores to quantify their contribution to immune response. Unlike conventional methods that focus solely on gene expression differences, PathNetDRP systematically incorporates biological context to improve biomarker selection. Validation across multiple independent cancer cohorts showed that PathNetDRP achieved strong predictive performance, with cross-validation the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves increasing from 0.780 to 0.940. Interestingly, PathNetDRP did not merely improve predictive accuracy; it also provided insights into key immune-related pathways, reinforcing its potential for identifying clinically relevant biomarkers. Conclusion The biomarkers identified by PathNetDRP demonstrated robust predictive performance across cross-validation and independent validation datasets, suggesting their potential utility in clinical applications. Furthermore, enrichment analysis highlighted key immune-related pathways, providing a deeper understanding of their role in ICI response regulation. While these findings underscore the promise of PathNetDRP, future work will explore the integration of additional predictive features, such as tumor mutational burden and microsatellite instability, to further refine its applicability.

BackgroundDespite treatment advancements with immunotherapy, our understanding of response relies on tissue-based, static tumor features such as tumor mutation burden (TMB) and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression. These approaches are limited in capturing the plasticity of tumor–immune system interactions under selective pressure of immune checkpoint blockade and predicting therapeutic response and long-term outcomes. Here, we investigate the relationship between serial assessment of peripheral blood cell counts and tumor burden dynamics in the context of an evolving tumor ecosystem during immune checkpoint blockade.MethodsUsing machine learning, we integrated dynamics in peripheral blood immune cell subsets, including neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), from 239 patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and predicted clinical outcome with immune checkpoint blockade. We then sought to interpret NLR dynamics in the context of transcriptomic and T cell repertoire trajectories for 26 patients with early stage NSCLC who received neoadjuvant immune checkpoint blockade. We further determined the relationship between NLR dynamics, pathologic response and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) clearance.ResultsIntegrated dynamics of peripheral blood cell counts, predominantly NLR dynamics and changes in eosinophil levels, predicted clinical outcome, outperforming both TMB and PD-L1 expression. As early changes in NLR were a key predictor of response, we linked NLR dynamics with serial RNA sequencing deconvolution and T cell receptor sequencing to investigate differential tumor microenvironment reshaping during therapy for patients with reduction in peripheral NLR. Reductions in NLR were associated with induction of interferon-γ responses driving the expression of antigen presentation and proinflammatory gene sets coupled with reshaping of the intratumoral T cell repertoire. In addition, NLR dynamics reflected tumor regression assessed by pathological responses and complemented ctDNA kinetics in predicting long-term outcome. Elevated peripheral eosinophil levels during immune checkpoint blockade were correlated with therapeutic response in both metastatic and early stage cohorts.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that early dynamics in peripheral blood immune cell subsets reflect changes in the tumor microenvironment and capture antitumor immune responses, ultimately reflecting clinical outcomes with immune checkpoint blockade.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have substantially improved the survival of cancer patients over the past several years. However, only a minority of patients respond to ICI treatment (~30% in solid tumors), and current ICI-response-associated biomarkers often fail to predict the ICI treatment response. Here, we present a machine learning (ML) framework that leverages network-based analyses to identify ICI treatment biomarkers (NetBio) that can make robust predictions. We curate more than 700 ICI-treated patient samples with clinical outcomes and transcriptomic data, and observe that NetBio-based predictions accurately predict ICI treatment responses in three different cancer types—melanoma, gastric cancer, and bladder cancer. Moreover, the NetBio-based prediction is superior to predictions based on other conventional ICI treatment biomarkers, such as ICI targets or tumor microenvironment-associated markers. This work presents a network-based method to effectively select immunotherapy-response-associated biomarkers that can make robust ML-based predictions for precision oncology. Identifying biomarkers for response to immunotherapy in cancer remains challenging. Here, the authors develop an approach based on network biology and machine learning -NetBio- to identify molecular biomarkers of response to immunotherapy across different cancer types and cohorts.

One of the great challenges in therapeutic oncology is determining who might achieve survival benefits from a particular therapy. Studies on longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics for the prediction of survival have generally been small or nonrandomized. We assessed ctDNA across 5 time points in 466 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the randomized phase 3 IMpower150 study comparing chemotherapy-immune checkpoint inhibitor (chemo-ICI) combinations and used machine learning to jointly model multiple ctDNA metrics to predict overall survival (OS). ctDNA assessments through cycle 3 day 1 of treatment enabled risk stratification of patients with stable disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2 (2.0–5.3), P  < 0.001; median 7.1 versus 22.3 months for high- versus low-intermediate risk) and with partial response (HR = 3.3 (1.7–6.4), P  < 0.001; median 8.8 versus 28.6 months). The model also identified high-risk patients in an external validation cohort from the randomized phase 3 OAK study of ICI versus chemo in NSCLC (OS HR = 3.73 (1.83–7.60), P  = 0.00012). Simulations of clinical trial scenarios employing our ctDNA model suggested that early ctDNA testing outperforms early radiographic imaging for predicting trial outcomes. Overall, measuring ctDNA dynamics during treatment can improve patient risk stratification and may allow early differentiation between competing therapies during clinical trials. A machine learning model that uses longitudinal ctDNA metrics robustly predicts survival in two phase 3 trials of patients with metastatic NSCLC, which may improve therapy selection and risk stratification.

Predicting whether a patient with cancer will benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) without resorting to advanced genomic or immunologic assays is an important clinical need. To address this, we developed and evaluated SCORPIO, a machine learning system that utilizes routine blood tests (complete blood count and comprehensive metabolic profile) alongside clinical characteristics from 9,745 ICI-treated patients across 21 cancer types. SCORPIO was trained on data from 1,628 patients across 17 cancer types from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. In two internal test sets comprising 2,511 patients across 19 cancer types, SCORPIO achieved median time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC(t)) values of 0.763 and 0.759 for predicting overall survival at 6, 12, 18, 24 and 30 months, outperforming tumor mutational burden (TMB), which showed median AUC(t) values of 0.503 and 0.543. Additionally, SCORPIO demonstrated superior predictive performance for predicting clinical benefit (tumor response or prolonged stability), with AUC values of 0.714 and 0.641, compared to TMB (AUC = 0.546 and 0.573). External validation was performed using 10 global phase 3 trials (4,447 patients across 6 cancer types) and a real-world cohort from the Mount Sinai Health System (1,159 patients across 18 cancer types). In these external cohorts, SCORPIO maintained robust performance in predicting ICI outcomes, surpassing programmed death-ligand 1 immunostaining. These findings underscore SCORPIO’s reliability and adaptability, highlighting its potential to predict patient outcomes with ICI therapy across diverse cancer types and healthcare settings. Using multiple datasets from real-world evidence and completed trials, a machine learning model using routine blood and clinical data is shown to be predictive of patient response to immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, across cancer types and outperforming standard biomarkers.

Background Although immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) is regarded as a breakthrough in cancer therapy, only a limited fraction of patients benefit from it. Cancer stemness can be the potential culprit in ICI resistance, but direct clinical evidence is lacking. Methods Publicly available scRNA-Seq datasets derived from ICI-treated patients were collected and analyzed to elucidate the association between cancer stemness and ICI response. A novel stemness signature (Stem.Sig) was developed and validated using large-scale pan-cancer data, including 34 scRNA-Seq datasets, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) pan-cancer cohort, and 10 ICI transcriptomic cohorts. The therapeutic value of Stem.Sig genes was further explored using 17 CRISPR datasets that screened potential immunotherapy targets. Results Cancer stemness, as evaluated by CytoTRACE, was found to be significantly associated with ICI resistance in melanoma and basal cell carcinoma (both P < 0.001). Significantly negative association was found between Stem.Sig and anti-tumor immunity, while positive correlations were detected between Stem.Sig and intra-tumoral heterogenicity (ITH) / total mutational burden (TMB). Based on this signature, machine learning model predicted ICI response with an AUC of 0.71 in both validation and testing set. Remarkably, compared with previous well-established signatures, Stem.Sig achieved better predictive performance across multiple cancers. Moreover, we generated a gene list ranked by the average effect of each gene to enhance tumor immune response after genetic knockout across different CRISPR datasets. Then we matched Stem.Sig to this gene list and found Stem.Sig significantly enriched 3% top-ranked genes from the list ( P = 0.03), including EMC3, BECN1, VPS35, PCBP2, VPS29, PSMF1, GCLC, KXD1, SPRR1B, PTMA, YBX1, CYP27B1, NACA, PPP1CA, TCEB2, PIGC, NR0B2, PEX13, SERF2, and ZBTB43, which were potential therapeutic targets. Conclusions We revealed a robust link between cancer stemness and immunotherapy resistance and developed a promising signature, Stem.Sig, which showed increased performance in comparison to other signatures regarding ICI response prediction. This signature could serve as a competitive tool for patient selection of immunotherapy. Meanwhile, our study potentially paves the way for overcoming immune resistance by targeting stemness-associated genes.

In the past decade, the emergence of machine learning (ML) applications has led to significant advances towards implementation of personalised medicine approaches for improved health care, due to the exceptional performance of ML models when utilising complex big data. The immune-mediated chronic inflammatory diseases are a group of complex disorders associated with dysregulated immune responses resulting in inflammation affecting various organs and systems. The heterogeneous nature of these diseases poses great challenges for tailored disease management and addressing unmet patient needs. Applying novel ML techniques to the clinical study of chronic inflammatory diseases shows promising results and great potential for precision medicine applications in clinical research and practice. In this review, we highlight the clinical applications of various ML techniques for prediction, diagnosis and prognosis of autoimmune rheumatic diseases, inflammatory bowel disease, autoimmune chronic kidney disease, and multiple sclerosis, as well as ML applications for patient stratification and treatment selection. We highlight the use of ML in drug development, including target identification, validation and drug repurposing, as well as challenges related to data interpretation and validation, and ethical concerns related to the use of artificial intelligence in clinical research.