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Motivated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in a sector of the economy, but that, by reducing demand in other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A Keynesian supply shock is more likely when the elasticity of substitution between sectors is relatively low, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display a smaller multiplier, but the insurance benefit of fiscal transfers can be enhanced. Firm exits and job destruction can amplify and propagate the shock.

This essay surveys the literature on directed search and competitive search equilibrium, covering theory and a variety of applications. These models share features with traditional search theory, but also differ in important ways. They share features with general equilibrium theory, but with explicit frictions. Equilibria are often efficient, mainly because markets price goods plus the time required to get them. The approach is tractable and arguably realistic. Results are presented for finite and continuum economies. Private information and sorting with heterogeneity are analyzed. While emphasizing issues and applications, we also provide several hard-to-find technical results.

This paper extends the benchmark New-Keynesian model by introducing two frictions: (i) agent heterogeneity with incomplete markets, uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, and occasionally-binding borrowing constraints; and (ii) bounded rationality in the form of level-k thinking. Compared to the benchmark model, we show that the interaction of these two frictions leads to a powerful mitigation of the effects of monetary policy, which is more pronounced at long horizons, and offers a potential rationalization of the “forward guidance puzzle.” Each of these frictions, in isolation, would lead to no or much smaller departures from the benchmark model.

The article presents the experience of applying a practice-oriented approach and interaction of educational, expert and supervisory organizations at the training students whose major is \"Commodity Science\". The possibility of using the methods of consumer testing of non-food products, the procedure for monitoring the consumer market and digital tools in the educational process is considered.

Many developing economies adopt industrial policies favoring selected sectors. Is there an economic logic to this type of intervention? I analyze industrial policy when economic sectors form a production network via input-output linkages. Market imperfections generate distortionary effects that compound through backward demand linkages, causing upstream sectors to become the sink for imperfections and have the greatest size distortions. My key finding is that the distortion in sectoral size is a sufficient statistic for the social value of promoting that sector; thus, there is an incentive for a well-meaning government to subsidize upstream sectors. Furthermore, sectoral interventions’ aggregate effects can be simply summarized, to first order, by the cross-sector covariance between my sufficient statistic and subsidy spending. My sufficient statistic predicts sectoral policies in South Korea in the 1970s and modern-day China, suggesting that sectoral interventions might have generated positive aggregate effects in these economies.

Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market over time through a diffusion process. However, typical diffusion models in marketing research use fairly simple demand models. In this paper we discuss the problem of predicting market shares for new products and suggest a method that combines advanced choice models with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to gain a significant market share. We have the advantage of a relatively unique databank where respondents were submitted to the same stated choice experiment before and after experiencing an electric vehicle. Results show that typical choice models forecast a demand that is too restrictive in the long period. Accounting for the diffusion effect, instead allows predicting the usual slow penetration of a new product in the initial years after product launch and a faster market share increase after diffusion takes place.

The US Great Recession featured a large decline in output and labor, tighter financial conditions, and a large increase in firm growth dispersion. We build a model in which increased volatility at the firm level generates a downturn and worsened credit conditions. The key idea is that hiring inputs is risky because financial frictions limit firms’ ability to insure against shocks. An increase in volatility induces firms to reduce their inputs to reduce such risk. Our model can generate most of the decline in output and labor in the Great Recession and the observed increase in firms’ interest rate spreads.

Research summary: We use a novel theoretical framework to synthesize ostensibly disparate streams of nonmarket strategy research. We argue that faced with weak institutions, firms can create and appropriate value by either adapting to, augmenting, or transforming the existing institutional environment, and can do so either independently or in collaboration with others. We use the resulting typology of six distinct nonmarket strategies to provide an integrative review of nonmarket strategy research. We then extend this framework to examine the choice between nonmarket strategies, arguing that this choice depends upon whether the existing institutional environment is incomplete or captured, and discussing other drivers of nonmarket strategy choice, the relationship between these strategies, and their social impact, so as to provide an agenda for future research. Managerial summary: The pursuit of competitive advantage often requires firms to operate in contexts where existing rules and regulations provide inadequate protection. Disruptive technologies open up new opportunities for value creation, but it takes years before appropriate regulations are introduced. Economic reforms open up new markets, but these are often regulated to favor incumbents and politically connected insiders. In such environments, managers must decide whether to adapt their strategies to the existing institutional environment, devote resources to improve it, or try to transform it altogether. In this article, we develop an integrative theoretical framework that connects and synthesizes research examining each of these options, and offers some preliminary thoughts on how managers may choose among these different approaches.

Research Summary State‐owned enterprises (SOEs) are often more opaque than other types of firms. This opaqueness tends to generate resistance when SOEs undertake cross‐border acquisitions. Opaqueness can also aggravate concerns about an SOE's semipolitical nature and its susceptibility to agency problems, making gaining legitimacy harder. Data on attempted foreign acquisitions by Chinese firms were analyzed to compare the likelihood of deal completion between SOEs and firms with other forms of ownership. The SOEs' completion rate was 14% lower than that of other firms. Their disadvantage was shown to be alleviated when they could provide credible signals by being publicly listed (though only on an exchange in a well‐developed economy or by hiring reputable auditors). We also find that the disadvantage of SOEs was partially mediated by their opaqueness. Managerial Summary Opaqueness, or lack of transparency, is critical in many business transactions. In this article, we argue that the concept of opaqueness can help us understand why SOEs tend to have a lower likelihood of deal completion in cross‐border acquisitions. Our evidence suggests that opaqueness influences the relationship between state ownership and deal completion, and firms can improve their chance of success in cross‐border acquisitions by providing credible information, such as by listing on an exchange in a developed market or hiring a reputable auditor. These help mitigate the hazard of opaqueness.

Research summary: This study draws on the resource-based view and the behavioral theory of the firm to gain new insights about the effect of performance relative to aspiration level (i.e., performance feedback) on the decision to enter new markets. Results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between performance both below and above aspiration level, and the probability of firms to enter new markets. That is, when firms are well below or well above their aspiration level, they significantly change their behavior. This article develops a theoretical framework to clarify and organize these findings. Managerial summary: This study examines the effect of performance feedback, and particularly, large discrepancies between firm performance and aspiration level on the decision to enter new markets. It provides support to the role of performance feedback in affecting the decision to enter new markets, a factor that has received relatively little attention in the extensive literature that has examined the inducements of such moves. Results show that, as performance falls below or rises above aspiration, a firm's probability of entering new markets increases up to a certain point after which this relationship decreases. This shows that the tendency to enter new markets is different for firms that are in the neighborhood of aspiration level compared to those that are well below or above it.