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Stocks for the long run : the definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies
Now in its fifth edition, \"Stocks for the Long Run\" includes Siegel's highly anticipated analysis of the sub-prime crash, the financial crisis, and resulting world-wide recession. This new edition also includes a deeper focus on international investing and emerging markets.
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Estimation of economic equations as a management tool in feedlot dairy farming
The aim of this study was to evaluate Pearson's linear correlations between productive and economic indicators as well as to estimate economic equations as tools in dairy farming. We used the database of the Research Group, registered with CNPq under the title ‘Animal and Forage Production in Piaui’, which consisted of two experiments with feedlot lactating cows. Economic and productive indicators were employed. Correlations were determined by Pearson’s linear correlation analysis, using the ‘t’ test. Equations were estimated via regression, using Saeg software (Statistical and Genetic Analysis System), considering α = 0.05. Based on concepts related to Pearson's linear correlation and dairy farming management, we were able to find correlations that allowed us to estimate simple, yet very informative equations, which facilitated the interpretation of the management of a dairy farm. Among the studied variables, net present value, internal rate of return, the cost per liter of milk produced and net margin were those which most contributed to the estimation of equations.
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Property investment: portfolio modelling
PurposeThe aim of this briefing is to look at the often overlooked impact of gearing (or leverage) on risk. The positive impact on equity return in a strong market is gained by increasing the overall risk of the investment and potentially negative impacts on returns in weak markets.Design/methodology/approachThis Education Briefing is an explanation of how the addition of individual assets to a portfolio can, with gearing, impact upon the portfolio risk/return profile.FindingsThrough a simple example, this briefing shows how geared portfolios can struggle in poor markets when the servicing of the debt (at increased interest rates) can have a severe negative impact upon returns.Practical implicationsThe process of borrowing at a bank rate below the return rate on an investment project can increase the equity return of the project as long as all incomes and interest rate remain at appropriate levels but when incomes fall or disappear and/or interest rates rise, the implication for the assets return and/or solvency can be highly significant.Originality/valueThis is a review of existing models.
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Putting Distribution Back at the Center of Economics: Reflections on \Capital in the Twenty-First Century\
When a lengthy book is widely discussed in academic circles and the popular media, it is probably inevitable that the arguments of the book will be simplified in the telling and retelling. In the case of my book Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2014), a common simplification of the main theme is that because the rate of return on capital r exceeds the growth rate of the economy g, the inequality of wealth is destined to increase indefinitely over time. In my view, the magnitude of the gap between r and g is indeed one of the important forces that can explain historical magnitudes and variations in wealth inequality. However, I do not view r > g as the only or even the primary tool for considering changes in income and wealth in the 20th century, or for forecasting the path of income and wealth inequality in the 21st century. In this essay, I will take up several themes from my book that have perhaps become attenuated or garbled in the ongoing discussions of the book, and will seek to re-explain and re-frame these themes. First, I stress the key role played in my book by the interaction between beliefs systems, institutions, and the dynamics of inequality. Second, I briefly describe my multidimensional approach to the history of capital and inequality. Third, I review the relationship and differing causes between wealth inequality and income inequality. Fourth, I turn to the specific role of r > g in the dynamics of wealth inequality: specifically, a larger r − g gap will amplify the steady-state inequality of a wealth distribution that arises out of a given mixture of shocks. Fifth, I consider some of the scenarios that affect how r − g might evolve in the 21st century, including rising international tax competition, a growth slowdown, and differential access by the wealthy to higher returns on capital. Finally, I seek to clarify what is distinctive in my historical and political economy approach to institutions and inequality dynamics, and the complementarity with other approaches.
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Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century
The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate, and volatile stock returns. Another mystery that may be resolved is why expected real interest rates were low in the United States during major wars, such as World War II. The model, an extension of work by Rietz, maintains the tractable framework of a representative agent, time-additive and isoelastic preferences, and complete markets. The results hold with i.i.d. shocks to productivity growth in a Lucas-tree type economy and also with the inclusion of capital formation.
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Winning at active management : the essential roles of culture, philosophy, and technology
\"Winning at Active Management conducts an in-depth examination of crucial issues facing the investment management industry, and will be a valuable resource for asset managers, institutional consultants, managers of pension and endowment funds, and advisers to individual investors. Bill Priest, Steve Bleiberg and Mike Welhoelter all experienced investment professionals, consider the challenges of managing portfolios through complex markets, as well as managing the cultural and technological complexities of the investment business. The book’s initial section highlights the importance of culture within an investment firm – the characteristics of strong cultures, the imperatives of communication and support, and suggestions for leading firms through times of both adversity and prosperity. It continues with a thorough discussion of active portfolio management for equities. The ongoing debate over active versus passive management is reviewed in detail, drawing on both financial theory and real-world investing results. The book also contrasts traditional methods of portfolio management, based on accounting metrics and price-earnings ratios, with Epoch Investment Partners’ philosophy of investing on free cash flow and appropriate capital allocation. Winning at Active Management closes with an inquiry into the crucial and growing role of technology in investing. The authors assert that the most effective portfolio strategies result from neither pure fundamental nor quantitative methods, but instead from thoughtful combinations of analyst and portfolio manager experience and skill with the speed and breadth of quantitative analysis. The authors illustrate the point with an example of an innovative Epoch equity strategy based on economic logic and judgment, but enabled by information technology. Winning at Active Management also offers important insights into selecting active managers – the market cycle factors that have held back many managers’ performance in recent years, and the difficulty of identifying those firms that truly possess investment skill. Drawing on behavioral economic theory and empirical research, the book makes a convincing case that many active investment managers can and do generate returns superior to those of the broad market\"-- Provided by publisher.
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