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This report brings together the results of an eight-part series of presentations by leading experts in issues directly related to microfinance institutional sustainability. It is intended for microfinance institution (MFI) board members, managers, and staff members as well as for government regulators, supervisors, and donor staff members. The first four chapters include topics in risk management: (1) risk management systems, (2) good governance, (3) interest rates, and (4) micro-insurance. The last four chapters include four topics in new product development and efficient delivery methodologies: (5) housing microfinance, (6) micro-leasing, (7) disaster preparedness products and systems, and (8) new technologies. The objectives of the series were as follows: i) to strengthen MFIs by disseminating innovative approaches in risk management, cost control, governance, and new technologies; ii) to promote a South-South exchange of experiences and lessons learned; iii) to promote greater ties among the MFIs in the region and between MFIs and government supervisors and regulators; and iv) to highlight the Bank's ability to mobilize international technical expertise in microfinance.

We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not explained away by credit risk or transaction costs. They are particularly strong for forward contracts that appear on banks' balance sheets at the end of the quarter, pointing to a causal effect of banking regulation on asset prices. The CIP deviations also appear significantly correlated with other fixed income spreads and with nominal interest rates.

Macro-finance theory implies that trend inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate are fundamental determinants of the yield curve. However, empirical models of the term structure of interest rates generally assume that these fundamentals are constant. We show that accounting for time variation in these underlying long-run trends is crucial for understanding the dynamics of Treasury yields and predicting excess bond returns. We introduce a new arbitrage-free model that captures the key role that long-run trends play in determining interest rates. The model also provides new, more plausible estimates of the term premium and accurate out-of-sample yield forecasts.

We show that maturity transformation does not expose banks to interest rate risk—it hedges it. The reason is the deposit franchise, which allows banks to pay deposit rates that are low and insensitive to market interest rates. Hedging the deposit franchise requires banks to earn income that is also insensitive, that is, to lend long term at fixed rates. As predicted by this theory, we show that banks closely match the interest rate sensitivities of their interest income and expense, and that this insulates their equity from interest rate shocks. Our results explain why banks supply long-term credit.

We show that conventional dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) estimated on recent U.S. data severely violate the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and deliver poor forecasts of future short rates. In contrast, shadow-rate DTSMs account for the ZLB by construction, capture the resulting distributional asymmetry of future short rates, and achieve good forecast performance. These models provide more accurate estimates of the most likely path for future monetary policy—including the timing of policy liftoff from the ZLB and the pace of subsequent policy tightening. We also demonstrate the benefits of including macroeconomic factors in a shadow-rate DTSM when yields are constrained near the ZLB.

The uncovered interest parity puzzle concerns the empirical regularity that high interest rate countries tend to have high expected returns on short term deposits. A separate puzzle is that high real interest rate countries tend to have currencies that are stronger than can be accounted for by the path of expected real interest differentials under uncovered interest parity. These two findings have apparently contradictory implications for the relationship of the foreign-exchange risk premium and interest-rate differentials. We document these puzzles, and show that existing models appear unable to account for both. A model that might reconcile the findings is discussed.

Having a long-term fixed-rate mortgage isn't as great as it might appear.

We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs’ carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When the short rate is the only risk factor, changes in investor demand have the same relative effect on interest rates across maturities regardless of the maturities where they originate. When investor demand is also stochastic, demand effects become more localized. A calibration indicates that long rates underreact to forward-guidance announcements about short rates. Largescale asset purchases can be more effective in moving long rates, especially if they are concentrated at long maturities.

Interest-rate cuts might not have the effect you think. Henry Curr, our economics editor, explains why.

The Economist explains why interest rate predictions are so easy to get wrong.