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"Socio-Economic Research"
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Strategies of Regional Levies of the Marine Affairs and Fisheries Office of Central Java Province of Indonesia
2024
There is still a need to properly increase the role of regional levies in generating revenue for Central Java Province. This is because each region has been granted the authority to manage its affairs, including regional finance, with the expectation that regional governments will become financially independent from the central government. In reality, many regions in Indonesia and other countries still significantly rely on the central government for financial support. Therefore, regional governments must focus on increasing revenue by improving the management of regional levies at the Regional Apparatus Organizations. This is achieved through the development of strategies for the regional levies sector based on the SWOT analysis results and the projected regional levies revenue of the Marine Affairs and Fisheries Office of Central Java Province. This research aimed to identify strategies, create strategies for regional levies, and analyze the projected revenue from these levies. This is expected to support efforts to increase regional levies revenue. This research used primary and secondary data. The primary data were obtained through interview results with key informants to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by the Marine Affairs and Fisheries Office in collecting regional levies. Meanwhile, secondary data comprised information on regional levies and relevant references on the Regional Apparatus Organization. The data collected were analyzed using the SWOT and multiple linear regression analyses as analytical techniques. The results showed the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats used to collect regional levies and also the strategies. Based on the projected revenue, the levies generated by this Regional Apparatus Organization are projected to increase from 2022 to 2027 steadily. The implications include recommendations for activities carried out by the Marine Affairs and Fisheries Office, which aligned with the potential and capabilities of the regional and central government regulations governing regional levies.
Journal Article
Na putu od socijalizma ka kapitalizmu: stavovi mladih u Bosni i Hercegovini o ekonomskoj ulozi države
2024
The paper aims to examine the intensity and spread of valueorientations of economic liberalism and redistributive statism among young peoplein Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) at three points in time – before the collapse ofthe socialist social order (1989), in the phase of consolidation of the neoliberal formof economic regulation after the effects of the global financial and economic crisis(2012), and after the economic crisis that came as a consequence of the coronaviruspandemic (2022). The theoretical framework of the analysis relies on the theoryof normative-value dissonance (Lazić, 2011). We used summative scales of valueorientations, where the data allowed for such analyses, and in other cases, wecarried out simpler forms of descriptive analyses of individual items. The analysis ofempirical data was carried out separately for three datasets: In the first one the datahad been obtained through the research conducted in 1989 in BiH, then again in 2012in the Doboj region in BiH, and the third time in 2022 in the entity of Republicof Srpska. The significance of the research relies on examining the attitudes ofyoung people related to the economic role of the state during the establishment ofneoliberal capitalism, which has been insufficiently explored in domestic sociology.
Journal Article
Misiunea de asigurare privind raportarea de sustenabilitate in contextul tendintelor mondiale
2024
Assurance of sustainability reports has gained increasing attention in academic research and professional practice as organizations strive to enhance the credibility and transparency of their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosures. This bibliometric analysis examines the academic landscape of assurance in sustainability reporting by analyzing relevant literature indexed in the Scopus database from 1995 to 2024. The study focused on analyzing the co-authorship at the country level, the co-occurrence of keywords, as well as co-citations at the level of cited references. The analysis explores trends, patterns, and emerging themes in research related to assurance practices, methodologies, standards, and stakeholder perspectives. The results revealed a growing interest in the topic of sustainability reporting assurance, particularly in countries such as the United Kingdom, USA, Spain, and Australia. Furthermore, the high number of citations indicates that the topic is increasingly debated among researchers.
Journal Article
Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study
2023
The purpose of this study is to examine whether we can identify a Phillips curve fit for the Kingdom of Eswatini as a low middle income Sub-Saharan Africa monarchy using data collected between 1991 and 2016. In our approach we rely on the recently introduced nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model to a variety of Phillips curve specifications. For robustness sake, we further employ three filters (one-sided HP, two-sided HP, and Corbae-Oularis filters) to extract the gap variables necessary for empirical analysis. Our findings point to a linear, short-run traditional Phillips curve whereas we find strong support for concave shaped unemployment-gap and output–gap based Phillips curve specifications. Given the specific form of concavity discovered in the Phillips curves, the low inflation rate experienced over the last couple of decades can be attributed to a worsening labour and goods markets. Moreover, our evidence further cautions Swazi policymakers of ‘overheating’ of the economy during economic booms in which stabilization tools are required to implemented in such instances.
Journal Article
Predictive capacities of social media in the financial market: ARX-GARCH model
2025
Motivation: Social media platforms have emerged as a new data source for social sciences. The data extracted from them, known as big social data, are characterized by their complexity and are described within the ‘V’ big data model. Literature has demonstrated the influence of investor activity, as captured by BSD, on the stock market. Modeling the stock market using Twitter data allows for the capture of real-time market sentiments, potentially enhancing the accuracy of financial forecasts. The value of such models lies in their ability to identify subtle yet significant signals that traditional methods might overlook.
Aim: The aim of this study is to explore the predictive capabilities of Twitter sentiment on financial markets, specifically focusing on the application of ARX-GARCH models to analyze the impact of both, negative and positive class of emotions on market volatility.
Results: Incorporating sentiment variables into the ARX-GARCH models did not significantly enhance their predictive capabilities. While sentiment variables did not broadly improve model performance, certain variables demonstrated statistical significance at various lag levels. This indicates that some sentiments might have a delayed impact on market returns, though the overall effect size was small. Among the sentiment indicators analyzed, those based on n-gram analysis and the bullish index outperformed others, including the volume of individual emotions like anger, fear, and sadness.
Journal Article
KAMU KURULUŞLARINDA HALKLA İLİŞKİLER FAALİYETLERİ: MİLLİ PİYANGO İDARESİ ÜZERİNE BİR PİLOT ÇALIŞMA
2025
This research aims to examine in detail the internal and external public relations activities of the National Lottery Administration and to measure the effectiveness of these activities. In the research, 22 different questions were asked to three National Lottery Administration managers using the interview method, one of the qualitative research methods. According to the research results, the public relations activities of the National Lottery Administration are carried out through an indirect communication network, not directly. As a public institution, direct public relations relations cannot be established with citizens; instead, communication is provided through provincial branch offices, mobile dealers, fixed dealers and chief dealers. Announcements made on the institution's website and local advertisements are also among the tools that strengthen communication with the public. It is aimed to establish effective communication with the public, especially through the dealership system organized with a wide network throughout Turkey and live broadcasts on television channels. However, legal obstacles have been imposed on the use of written and visual media tools, and therefore public relations activities are carried out mostly with traditional methods. The institution carries out a partial public relations activity under the influence of the privatization process. In line with the vision of the institution, corporate social responsibility projects carried out to contribute to the country's economy have an important place.. Public schools, student dormitories, sports complexes, residences and faculty buildings built within the scope of these projects stand out as important investments to communicate with the public and increase the awareness of the institution. In addition, as a result of applications made among some provinces and districts, places that will make the highest contribution to the promotion and image of the institution are selected, and raffles held in these regions help to establish a closer bond with the public. Concerts held and gifts distributed in the regions where the draws are held also increase the sympathy of the local people towards the institution and reinforce their sense of trust. The public relations activities of the National Lottery Administration have a structure that aims to reach a wide public, despite the limited budget and legal obstacles, through social responsibility projects and traditional public relations methods.
Journal Article
Estymacja wielowymiarowego modelu stochastycznej zmienności z dekompozycją Choleskiego przy użyciu iterowanej filtracji
2023
Aim: The paper aims to propose a new estimation method for the Cholesky Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model based on the iterated filtering algorithm (Ionides et al., 2006, 2015). Methodology: The iterated filtering method is a frequentist-based technique that through multiple repetitions of the filtering process, provides a sequence of iteratively updated parameter estimates that converge towards the maximum likelihood estimate. Results: The effectiveness of the proposed estimation method was shown in an empirical example in which the Cholesky Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model was used in a study on safe-haven assets of one market index: Standard and Poor’s 500 and three safe-haven candidates: gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Implications and recommendations: In further research, the iterating filtering method may be used for more advanced multivariate stochastic volatility models that take into account, for example, the leverage effect (as in Ishihara et al., 2016) and heavy-tailed errors (as in Ishihara and Omori, 2012). Originality/Value: The main contribution of the paper is the proposition of a new estimation method for the Cholesky Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model based on iterated filtering algorithm This is one of the few frequentist-based statistical inference methods for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
Journal Article
Szacowanie gęstości warunkowej z wykorzystaniem modelu w strukturze regresji skalarnej na funkcji: lokalne podejście liniowe z losowym brakiem
2023
The aim of this research was to study a nonparametric estimator of the density and mode function of a scalar response variable given a functional variable, when the observations are i.i.d. This proposed estimator is given by combining Missing At Random (MAR) with the local linear approach. Finally, a comparison study based on simulated data is also provided to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the local linear approach with MAR to the presence of even a small proportion of outliers in the data.
Journal Article
Druga fala COVID-19 w Polsce - charakterystyka z zastosowaniem metod FDA
2023
The aim of this article was to analyse functional data of the number of hospitalised individuals, intensive care patients, positive COVID-19 tests, deaths and convalescents during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. For this purpose, firstly the author convert data of sixteen voivodeships to smooth functions, and then used the principal component analysis and multiple function-on-function linear regression model to predict the number of hospitalised and intensive care patients due to the COVID-19 infection during the second wave of the pandemic. Finally, the results were compared with those previously obtained for the combined data of the second and third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland (Hęćka, 2023)
Journal Article
Wyzwania demograficzne w Polsce analiza niskiej dzietności
2023
Research background: The phenomenon of low fertility in Poland is a vital subject of demographic analysis. In recent years, not only have there been changes in procreative and family models, but also in the age structure of society. This is particularly significant in the context of population ageing, which is becoming increasingly evident and brings numerous challenges such as increased burden on healthcare systems, a decrease in the active workforce, and the need to secure adequate retirement funds. Despite the desire to have children, many individuals refrain from making such a decision, and the reasons for this choice are diverse. Therefore, it was essential to conduct an analysis of the factors determining fertility in Poland, considering both the economic and social aspects. Understanding how the economic situation, labour market conditions, and changes in social structure impact on the decision-making process regarding childbearing is essential. Purpose of the paper: The objective of this article was to analyse fertility rates in Poland for the period 2004-2020. The conducted research identified the factors influencing the observed state of low generational replacement and determining their intensity. Methodology/Methods/Data sources: The data used in this article were sourced from the Central Statistical Office and covered the years 2004-2020. The study was based on literature concerning demography and econometrics. Three statistical methods were applied in the analysis of fertility in Poland: the Classical Method of Least Squares (CMLS) model, the Fixed Effects (FE) estimator, and the Random Effects (RE) estimator. Fertility analysis was conducted at regional level by dividing Poland into 16 administrative units (voivodeships). A panel model was employed for the analysis, and the results were subjected to Wald, Breusch-Pagan, and Hausman tests to compare the outcomes obtained from different models. Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that the economic situation and the labour market significantly influence the decision to have children in Poland. The trend of low fertility, although showing some increase, is still characteristic of the country compared to other EU nations. The analysis of the factors determining fertility is vital for understanding the decisions of young generations of Poles regarding parenthood.
Journal Article