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BackgroundPhilip Morris International (PMI) claims to be transforming and has committed to a ‘smoke-free’ future. In 2020, it announced an ‘aspirational’ target for reduced cigarette shipments by 2025.MethodsPMI cigarette shipment data are taken from PMI quarterly financial reports 2008–2023. Trends in these data before and after the 2020 announcement are analysed using linear regression, and auto regressive integrated moving average and error, trend, seasonal time-series models to assess if PMI’s 2025 target would be met on pre-existing trends, and if the trend changed after the announcement. These trends are also compared with the global retail market for cigarettes, using sales data from Euromonitor.ResultsFindings were consistent across all three models. PMI’s shipment target of 550 billion cigarette sticks by 2025 would readily have been met given pre-existing shipment trends. Following the 2020 announcement, the decline in PMI cigarette shipments stalled markedly with a statistically significant change in trend (p<0.001). The current and projected trend to 2025 is consistent with no further decline in cigarette volumes, meaning PMI is unlikely to hit its target. This mirrors a global pattern in which declines in cigarette sales have stalled since 2020.ConclusionsPMI’s 2025 target was not ‘aspirational’ but highly conservative—it would have been met based on pre-existing trends in declining cigarette shipments. Yet PMI will nonetheless fail to meet that target providing evidence it is not transforming. Stalling of the decline of PMI and global cigarette sales raises significant concerns about progress in global tobacco control.

ObjectiveThis study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023.MethodsData on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment.ResultsBetween 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased −1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to −10.5% APC and continued to fall −7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC.ConclusionWhile many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor.

Abstract Background LGBT populations use tobacco at disparately higher rates nationwide, compared to national averages. The tobacco industry has a history targeting LGBT with marketing efforts, likely contributing to this disparity. This study explores whether exposure to tobacco content on traditional and social media is associated with tobacco use among LGBT and non-LGBT. Methods This study reports results from LGBT (N = 1092) and non-LGBT (N = 16430) respondents to a 2013 nationally representative cross-sectional online survey of US adults (N = 17522). Frequency and weighted prevalence were estimated and adjusted logistic regression analyses were conducted. Results LGBT reported significantly higher rates of past 30-day tobacco media exposure compared to non-LGBT, this effect was strongest among LGBT who were smokers (p < .05). LGBT more frequently reported exposure to, searching for, or sharing messages related to tobacco couponing, e-cigarettes, and anti-tobacco on new or social media (eg, Twitter, Facebook, etc.) than did non-LGBT (p < .05). Non-LGBT reported more exposure from traditional media sources such as television, most notably anti-tobacco messages (p = .0088). LGBT had higher odds of past 30-day use of cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and cigars compared to non-LGBT, adjusting for past 30-day media exposure and covariates (p ≤ .0001). Conclusions LGBT (particularly LGBT smokers) are more likely to be exposed to and interact with tobacco-related messages on new and social media than their non-LGBT counterparts. Higher levels of tobacco media exposure were significantly associated with higher likelihood of tobacco use. This suggests tobacco control must work toward reaching LGBT across a variety of media platforms, particularly new and social media outlets. Implications This study provides important information about LGBT communities tobacco-related disparities in increased exposure to pro-tobacco messages via social media, where the tobacco industry has moved since the MSA. Further, LGBT when assessed as a single population appear to identify having decreased exposure to anti-tobacco messages via traditional media, where we know a large portion of tobacco control and prevention messages are placed. The study points to the need for targeted and tailored approaches by tobacco control to market to LGBT using on-line resources and tools in order to help reduce LGBT tobacco-related health disparities. Although there have been localized campaigns, only just recently have such LGBT-tailored national campaigns been developed by the CDC, FDA, and Legacy, assessment of the content, effectiveness, and reach of both local and national campaigns will be important next steps.

IntroductionAs a result of the Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Products Regulations and Tobacco Products Directive, all packs of cigarettes (factory-made and hand-rolled) in the UK must be drab brown, display pictorial warnings on the principal display areas and contain no less than 20 cigarettes or 30 g of tobacco. The legislation was phased in between May 2016 and May 2017. Our objective was to monitor pack, brand and product changes preimplementation and postimplementation.MethodsOur surveillance of the cigarette market involved a review of the trade press, a monthly monitor of online supermarkets and regular visits to stores, from May 2015 to June 2017.ResultsBefore standardised packaging there were changes to the pack graphics (eg, redesigned packs and limited editions) and pack structure (eg, resealable inner foil) and the issue of a number of reusable tins. After standardised packaging, changes included newer cigarette pack sizes for some brand variants (eg, 23 and 24 packs). Changes to the branding prestandardised packaging included brand extensions, and poststandardised packaging included brand and/or variant name change, often with the inclusion of colour descriptors and brand migrations. Product changes prestandardised packaging included the introduction of novel filters (eg, filters with two flavour-changing capsules, tube filters, firmer filters and filters with granular additives). There was non-compliance with the legislation, with slim packs, which are not permitted, on sale after standardised packaging was implemented.ConclusionsOur findings highlight the need to monitor developments in markets introducing standardised packaging and have policy implications for countries considering this measure.

To determine whether in countries with high gender empowerment the female-to-male smoking prevalence ratio is also higher. Bivariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to explore the relation between the United Nations Development Programme's gender empowerment measure (GEM) and the female-to-male smoking prevalence ratio (calculated from the 2008 WHO global tobacco control report). Because a country's progression through the various stages of the tobacco epidemic and its gender smoking ratio (GSR) are thought to be influenced by its level of development, we explored this correlation as well, with economic development defined in terms of gross national income (GNI) per capita and income inequality (Gini coefficient). The GSR was significantly and positively correlated with the GEM (r=0.680; P<0.001). In addition, the GEM was the strongest predictor of the GSR (β, adjusted: 0.47; P<0.0001) after controlling for GNI per capita and for Gini coefficient. Whether progress towards gender empowerment can take place without a corresponding increase in smoking among women remains to be seen. Strong tobacco control measures are needed in countries where women are being increasingly empowered.

Video games have grown in popularity since the 1970s, and tobacco imagery is present in a substantial subset of games, including those oriented to youth. Much like exposure to tobacco content in films, exposure to tobacco content in video games may influence smoking uptake and use; however, the tobacco industry's role in facilitating or promoting the use of tobacco imagery in video games is unclear. We explored the industry's interest in and use of video games to market their products to youth and young adults. We retrieved and analyzed archival tobacco industry documents. We supplemented information from the documents with current and archived versions of several brand and corporate websites and one website containing user-supplied information on video games. Tobacco companies recognized the youth appeal and marketing potential of video games as early as 1980. Initial marketing ideas included incorporating video game themes into product packaging and design. More fully realized plans focused on incorporating video games into product promotions in bars, as a high visibility way to attract younger patrons and increase long-term marketing opportunities by generating names for tobacco company direct-marketing databases. Tobacco companies also incorporated video games into in-home product promotions, primarily as components of brand websites, in order to enhance brand image and generate repeat website traffic. A similar desire to attract and keep visitors led to discussions about the inclusion of video games on corporate youth smoking prevention websites, although only one company, Lorillard, followed through. Video game players are an attractive target market for tobacco companies. Video games, as used by these companies, facilitate consumer engagement with particular tobacco brands or particular corporate messages. Eliminating the use of video games as a promotional vehicle may require limiting tobacco marketing in both physical and online environments.

Abstract Introduction Direct-to-consumer tobacco marketing, including direct mail and email coupons, is a potentially influential marketing strategy. We examined the associations between receipt of tobacco direct mail/email coupons and trajectories of smoking behavior among US adults. Methods Data were from the US Population Assessment on Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study adult sample (n = 32160) collected during 2013–2014. Participants self-reported their smoking status (every day, some days, not at all) 12 months prior to the survey (T0) and at the time of the survey (T1). Three smoking trajectories were identified: nonsmokers progressing to current smokers, current smokers continuing to smoke, and among current smokers at T0, progressing to or continuing with daily smoking. Participants also reported receipt of direct mail/email tobacco coupons in the 6 months preceding T1 (yes/no). Weighted multiple logistic regression models were used to test the associations between receiving direct mail/email tobacco coupons and different smoking trajectories adjusted for demographic characteristics. Results One in eight (12.4%) US adult nonsmokers and 36.2% adult smokers at T0 reported receiving tobacco coupons. Receipt of tobacco coupons was negatively associated with poverty status. Receipt of tobacco coupons was associated with increased odds of progression to current smoking (AOR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.45 to 2.12), continuation of smoking (AOR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.65), and current smokers’ progression to or continuation with daily smoking (AOR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.50 to 1.91). Conclusions Direct-to-consumer tobacco coupons may promote progression of smoking among nonsmokers, and continuation of smoking and progression to daily smoking among smokers in US adults. Implications Distributing direct mail coupons is a strategy employed by tobacco companies to promote their products. We found, in a US national study, that many adults received tobacco coupons, and receiving these coupons was associated with subsequent progression of smoking among nonsmokers, and continuation of smoking and daily smoking among smokers. Scrutiny over the use of direct mail coupons and its effects on population health is warranted. Future research is needed to evaluate the effect of different interventions to reduce the impact of these coupons on smoking behaviors.

Abstract Introduction Since being brought to market in 2007, cigarettes with capsules in the filter that can be burst to change the flavor have had remarkable global success, highlighting the importance of product innovation for tobacco companies. Very few studies have explored how these products are perceived by smokers however. This paper sought to address this gap by exploring smokers’ awareness of cigarettes with one or two flavor-changing capsules in the filter and the appeal of these products. Methods Twenty focus groups were conducted in Glasgow and Edinburgh in 2015 with current smokers (N = 120), segmented by age (16–17, 18–24, 25–35, 36–50, >50), gender, and social grade. Results Awareness, use and appeal of capsule cigarettes was greater among younger adults (16–35 years), who showed most interest in these products. Those who perceived capsules positively mentioned multiple benefits: the ability to burst the capsule, convenience of being able to share cigarettes among menthol and nonmenthol smokers, better taste, fresher breath, reduced smell, and greater discretion. It was suggested that capsule cigarettes, particularly the double capsule cigarette (which had two differently flavored capsules in the filter), would encourage nonsmokers to experiment with smoking and discourage smokers from quitting. Conclusions The findings offer some reasons behind the global growth of the capsule cigarette segment. Implications Cigarettes with flavor-changing capsules in the filter have been one of the most successful product innovations of the last decade for tobacco companies. They have received very little academic attention however. Employing focus groups with 120 smokers aged 16 and over, we found that capsule cigarettes held most appeal to, and were considered to be targeted at, younger people, with it suggested that these products would encourage initiation and discourage cessation. This study provides some understanding of how these products are viewed by smokers.

Tobacco consumption is one of the leading causes of preventable death. In this study, we analyze whether someone's genetic predisposition to smoking moderates the response to tobacco excise taxes. We interact polygenic scores for smoking behavior with state-level tobacco excise taxes in longitudinal data (1992-2016) from the US Health and Retirement Study (N = 12,058). Someone's genetic propensity to smoking moderates the effect of tobacco excise taxes on smoking behavior along the extensive margin (smoking vs. not smoking) and the intensive margin (the amount of tobacco consumed). In our analysis sample, we do not find a significant gene-environment interaction effect on smoking cessation. When tobacco excise taxes are relatively high, those with a high genetic predisposition to smoking are less likely (i) to smoke, and (ii) to smoke heavily. While tobacco excise taxes have been effective in reducing smoking, the gene-environment interaction effects we observe in our sample suggest that policy makers could benefit from taking into account the moderating role of genes in the design of future tobacco control policies.

From these sources we report five major trends in the factory-made cigarette market in Australia that we discerned in the 12 months leading up to, and following, the implementation of plain packaging: (1) reassurance of product quality to smokers; (2) shift of promotional attention to brand and variant names; (3) renewed emphasis on value for money; (4) introduction of novel products and (5) rationalisation of product offerings. Written guarantees of continuing quality Figure 1 demonstrates a reassurance message from BATA to smokers of the continuing quality of its top selling brand, Winfield, perhaps also attempting to dispel rumours that tobacco ingredients would be altered in the lead-up to plain packaging. 3 This message seems to reflect an acknowledgment by tobacco manufacturers that consumers' taste perceptions are influenced by packaging and design. 4 5 The many experimental studies of plain packaging demonstrate that consumers expect plainly packaged cigarettes to have poorer taste by being stronger, less satisfying, and/or lower in quality than cigarettes contained in branded packs. 6 A similar message on pack inserts was also noted in at least one PM brand, reading 'Our promise: