Explore the vast range of titles available.

Crowd congestion is a common issue at train stations around major sports events, and puts passengers at risk and lowers service quality. Guiding arriving fans along less traveled routes may alleviate congestion. Smartphone apps provide a medium to deliver route suggestions but the messages they provide are pivotal to adherence. We explore how message design affects pedestrians’ willingness to follow route instructions. We present an online survey conducted with two groups: football fans, and students and faculty associates. We vary the presence of top down views of the route choices at train station Münchner Freiheit in Munich, real-time information on congestion, and appeals to team spirit. We compute a distribution of route choices that suggests that congestion may be reduced with the right combination of message components for each target group. We then use a computer simulation to investigate the congestion situation. Our results suggest that lowest congestion is achieved when people base their decisions on real-time information. The social identity approach is highlighted in our study as having a possible influence on message design. Moreover, it indicates that the implementation of such apps in real-life applications can improve safety. Our methodology can be applied to other scenarios to test the suitability of apps and message designs.

Previous tsunami evacuation simulations have mostly been based on arbitrary assumptions or inputs adapted from non-emergency situations, but a few studies have used empirical behavior data. This study bridges this gap by integrating empirical decision data from surveys on local evacuation expectations and evacuation drills into an agent-based model of evacuation behavior for two Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) communities that would be inundated within 20–40 min after a CSZ earthquake. The model also considers the impacts of liquefaction and landslides from the earthquake on tsunami evacuation. Furthermore, we integrate the slope-speed component from least-cost distance to build the simulation model that better represents the complex nature of evacuations. The simulation results indicate that milling time and the evacuation participation rate have significant nonlinear impacts on tsunami mortality estimates. When people walk faster than 1 m s−1, evacuation by foot is more effective because it avoids traffic congestion when driving. We also find that evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, milling time, evacuation participation, and choosing the closest safe location than to other behavioral variables. Minimum tsunami mortality results from maximizing the evacuation participation rate, minimizing milling time, and choosing the closest safe destination outside of the inundation zone. This study's comparison of the agent-based model and the beat-the-wave (BtW) model finds consistency between the two models' results. By integrating the natural system, built environment, and social system, this interdisciplinary model incorporates substantial aspects of the real world into the multi-hazard agent-based platform. This model provides a unique opportunity for local authorities to prioritize their resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.

Artificially excavated rock slope of Zhongyuntai Mountain in Lianyungang is close to the busy Dongshugang expressway, with steep topography and well-developed structural planes. Under the influence of rain erosion, weathering, and human activities, it has high rockfall potential and seriously endangers road traffic safety. The purpose of this study is to conduct a preliminary assessment of the potential rockfall hazards in the slope area to provide support for the improvement and perfection of relevant protective facilities. Through the geological survey, numerical simulation and analysis of the structural features of the discontinuities, the main failure mechanisms of the rockfall investigated in this rock slope can be divided into weathering damage, planar failure, wedge failure and toppling failure. Accordingly, three potential rockfall source areas and possible rockfall movement profiles were determined. Rockfall hazard analysis and protective measures test were conducted using Rocfall v.4.0 software. Before that, the mass of the blocks for simulation analysis is selected as 4000 kg through survey statistics, and the normal and tangential restitution coefficients of five slope materials involved in each profile required by the numerical model are determined by on-site rockfall tests. Numerical simulations adopting these parameters were performed, and the bounce heights, roll-out distances, kinetic energies and the velocities of rockfall along the slope profiles were obtained. Based on the analysis of the simulation results, under the condition of no protective measures, 57.7–61.6% of the rocks intruded into the road along with the three profiles, and the maximum bouncing heights of the rockfalls on the three profiles could reach 23.52–26.52 m. The velocity and total kinetic energy of rockfall showed a clear increasing trend with the increase in the falling height. The maximum kinetic energies of rockfalls on the three profiles can reach 1680.7–2435.3 kJ, and even in the highway area, which can reach 1252.4–1711.3 kJ. Only a few rockfalls escaped under the existing protective measures, but for larger-sized rockfalls, the existing measures may face great challenges. These results obtained in this research may provide a useful reference for the reinforcement of slope prevention measures and the mitigation of rockfall hazards in similar potential areas.

The complex design of transportation infrastructure hinders communication between different roles in the project, which makes it difficult to promote the Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) mode. This paper discusses a design simulation and communication system based on Building Information Modeling and Virtual Reality for transportation infrastructure (DSC-BV-TI system), integrated with BIM, with VR developed by using a game engine. Based on an analysis of the user’s demand, the system introduces a three-dimensional BIM model of traffic infrastructure in an immersive VR environment and realizes the simulation design, weather simulation, virtual driving, sight distance calculation, visual simulation and other functions of traffic infrastructure project by using the system’s safety assessment and scheme decision. The system is applied to the design of the Jinjiazhuang Extra-Long Tunnel project of the Yan-Chong Expressway in Hebei Province, which was built for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The results show that, using the DSC-BV-TI system, the designer has completed a display of the overall scheme: the user can use the steering wheel to drive a vehicle; use the head-mounted display to play the picture; realize the simulation and interaction in a variety of simulated weather conditions and environments; and use IPD mode to communicate and make decisions on the design scheme of the traffic infrastructure, tunnel speed limit and other aspects that play a key role. The DSC-BV-TI system has 8 advantages and 4 disadvantages identified through a questionnaire survey, the advantages including high fidelity, high efficiency and low cost. At the same time, according to the research results, three suggestions to help improve the system are discussed. DSC-BV-TI system as a communication bridge between the design team and other stakeholders reduces the communication gap and promotes the implementation of the IPD mode in transportation infrastructure projects.

Apex carnivores are wide‐ranging, low‐density, hard to detect, and declining throughout most of their range, making population monitoring both critical and challenging. Rapid and inexpensive index calibration survey (ICS) methods have been developed to monitor large African carnivores. ICS methods assume constant detection probability and a predictable relationship between the index and the actual population of interest. The precision and utility of the resulting estimates from ICS methods have been questioned. We assessed the performance of one ICS method for large carnivores—track counts—with data from two long‐term studies of African lion populations. We conducted Monte Carlo simulation of intersections between transects (road segments) and lion movement paths (from GPS collar data) at varying survey intensities. Then, using the track count method we estimated population size and its confidence limits. We found that estimates either overstate precision or are too imprecise to be meaningful. Overstated precision stemmed from discarding the variance from population estimates when developing the method and from treating the conversion from tracks counts to population density as a back‐transformation, rather than applying the equation for the variance of a linear function. To effectively assess the status of species, the IUCN has set guidelines, and these should be integrated in survey designs. We propose reporting the half relative confidence interval width (HRCIW) as an easily calculable and interpretable measure of precision. We show that track counts do not adhere to IUCN criteria, and we argue that ICS methods for wide‐ranging low‐density species are unlikely to meet those criteria. Established, intensive methods lead to precise estimates, but some new approaches, like short, intensive, (spatial) capture–mark–recapture (CMR/SECR) studies, aided by camera trapping and/or genetic identification of individuals, hold promise. A handbook of best practices in monitoring populations of apex carnivores is strongly recommended. We tested and analyzed a popular rapid and cheap track survey method for large carnivores with randomly generated transects and empirical data on lion movements. We found that these methods are not able to reliably detect changes in populations of large carnivores often not even including the true population size in its confidence interval. We argue that the power of population estimates should meet criteria, preferably the IUCN guidelines, to detect population trends.

Non-response weighting is a commonly used method to adjust for bias due to unit non-response in surveys. Theory and simulations show that, to reduce bias effectively without increasing variance, a covariate that is used for non-response weighting adjustment needs to be highly associated with both the response indicator and the survey outcome variable. In practice, these requirements pose a challenge that is often overlooked, because those covariates are often not observed or may not exist. Surveys have recently begun to collect supplementary data, such as interviewer observations and other proxy measures of key survey outcome variables. To the extent that these auxiliary variables are highly correlated with the actual outcomes, these variables are promising candidates for non-response adjustment. In the present study, we examine traditional covariates and new auxiliary variables for the National Survey of Family Growth, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the American National Election Survey, the European Social Surveys and the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute survey. We provide empirical estimates of the association between proxy measures and response to the survey request as well as the actual survey outcome variables. We also compare unweighted and weighted estimates under various non-response models. Our results from multiple surveys with multiple recruitment protocols from multiple organizations on multiple topics show the difficulty of finding suitable covariates for non-response adjustment and the need to improve the quality of auxiliary data.

Background Front-of-package labelling is a cost-effective strategy to help consumers make healthier choices and informed food purchases. The effect of labels is mediated by consumer understanding and acceptability of the label. We compared the acceptability and understanding of labels used in Latin-America among low- and middle-income Mexican adults. Methods Participants ( n  = 2105) were randomly assigned to one of three labels: Mexican Guideline Daily Allowances (GDA), Ecuador’s Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), or Chile’s Warning Labels (WL) in red. Label acceptability was evaluated through items regarding likeability, attractiveness and perceived cognitive workload. Objective understanding was evaluated by asking participants to select the product with the lowest nutritional quality among three products. We measured the time participants took to choose the product. Differences in label acceptability, understanding and time required to choose a product across labels were tested. Results Compared to the GDA, a higher proportion of participants liked the MTL and WL, considered them attractive, and with a lower perceived cognitive workload ( p  < 0.05). Participants had 4.00 (2.86–5.59) times the odds of correctly identifying the product with the lowest nutritional quality when using the MTL label and 4.52 (3.24–6.29) times the odds when using the WL, in comparison to the GDA. Time required to choose the product was lower for the MTL (Median: 11.25 s; IQR = 8.00–16.09) and the WL (Median = 11.94 s, IQR = 8.56–16.52) compared to the GDA (Median: 15.31 s; IQR = 10.81–20.21; p  < 0.05). No differences were observed between the MTL and the WL. Conclusions GDA had the lowest acceptability and understanding among the labels tested. The MTL and the WL were more accepted and understood, and allowed low- and middle-income consumers to make nutrition-quality related decisions more quickly. WL or MTL may foster healthier food choices in the most vulnerable groups in Mexico compared to the current labelling format.

Young drivers (18-24 years) are over-represented in sleep-related crashes (comprising one in five fatal crashes in developed countries) primarily due to decreased sleep opportunity, lower tolerance for sleep loss, and ongoing maturation of brain areas associated with driving-related decision making. Impaired driving performance is the proximal reason for most car crashes. There is still a limited body of evidence examining the effects of sleep loss on young drivers' performance, with discrepancies in the methodologies used, and in the definition of outcomes. This study aimed to identify the direction and magnitude of the effects of sleep loss on young drivers' performance, and to appraise the quality of current evidence via a systematic review. Based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta- Analyses (PRISMA) approach, 16 eligible studies were selected for review, and their findings summarised. Next, critical elements of these studies were identified, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines augmented to rate those elements. Using those criteria, the quality of individual papers was calculated and the overall body of evidence for each driving outcome were assigned a quality ranking (from 'very low' to 'high-quality'). Two metrics, the standard deviation of lateral position and number of line crossings, were commonly reported outcomes (although in an overall 'low-quality' body of evidence), with significant impairments after sleep loss identified in 50% of studies. While speed-related outcomes and crash events (also with very low- quality evidence) both increased under chronic sleep loss, discrepant findings were reported under conditions of acute total sleep deprivation. It is crucial to obtain more reliable data about the effects of sleep loss on young drivers' performance by using higher quality experimental designs, adopting common protocols, and the use of consistent metrics and reporting of findings based on GRADE criteria and the PRISMA statement. Key words: Young drivers, sleep loss, driving performance, PRISMA, the GRADE, systematic review.

In 2017, a geochemical survey was carried out across the Commune of Santiago, a local administrative unit located at the center of the namesake capital city of Chile, and the concentration of a number of major and trace elements (53 in total) was determined on 121 topsoil samples. Multifractal IDW (MIDW) interpolation method was applied to raw data to generate geochemical baseline maps of 15 potential toxic elements (PTEs); the concentration–area (C-A) plot was applied to MIDW grids to highlight the fractal distribution of geochemical data. Data of PTEs were elaborated to statistically determine local geochemical baselines and to assess the spatial variation of the degree of soil contamination by means of a new method taking into account both the severity of contamination and its complexity. Afterwards, to discriminate the sources of PTEs in soils, a robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to data expressed in isometric log-ratio (ilr) coordinates. Based on PCA results, a Sequential Binary Partition (SBP) was also defined and balances were determined to generate contrasts among those elements considered as proxies of specific contamination sources (Urban traffic, productive settlements, etc.). A risk assessment was finally completed to potentially relate contamination sources to their potential effect on public health in the long term. A probabilistic approach, based on Monte Carlo method, was deemed more appropriate to include uncertainty due to spatial variation of geochemical data across the study area. Results showed how the integrated use of multivariate statistics and compositional data analysis gave the authors the chance to both discriminate between main contamination processes characterizing the soil of Santiago and to observe the existence of secondary phenomena that are normally difficult to constrain. Furthermore, it was demonstrated how a probabilistic approach in risk assessment could offer a more reliable view of the complexity of the process considering uncertainty as an integral part of the results.