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\"This textbook of quantitative methods in transportation engineering comes with problems and a solutions manual for adopting course instructors. Basic mathematics and calculus are prerequisites\"-- Provided by publisher.

By discussing statistical concepts in the context of transportation planning and operations, this text provides the necessary background for making informed transportation-related decisions. It explains the why behind standard methods and uses real-world transportation examples and problems to illustrate key concepts. The book covers the statistical techniques most frequently employed by transportation and pavement professionals. To familiarize readers with the underlying theory and equations, it contains problems that can be solved using SAS's JMP package, which enables users to interactively explore and visualize data.

Road accidents are a significant negative outcome of transportation systems, causing injuries, fatalities, traffic congestion, and economic losses. As cities expand and the number of vehicles on the road increases, traffic accidents (TAs) have become a significant problem. Studies have shown that urban development plays a more significant role in transportation safety than previously thought. Low-income countries have higher fatality rates than high-income countries, according to the Permanent International Association of Road Congress (PIARC) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Predicting and preventing the occurrence of accidents and congestion is necessary worldwide, especially in developing countries where fatality rates are higher. The objective of this study is to examine and make a comparative analysis in low-income and high-income countries of the existing literature on the global challenge of car accidents and use its prediction techniques to enhance road safety and reduce traffic congestion. The study evaluates various approaches such as logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, deep neural network, support vector machine, random forest, K-nearest neighbors, Naïve Bayes, empirical Bayes, geospatial analysis methods, and UIMA, NSGA-II, and MOPS algorithms. The research identifies current challenges, prevention ideas, and future directions for preventing accidents and congestion on the road network. Integrating GIS-based spatial statistical methods and temporal data and utilizing advanced optimization algorithms and machine learning methods can result in accurate prediction models that can help identify accident hotspots and reduce congestions and enhance traffic safety and mitigate their occurrence. Effectively preventing urban traffic congestion requires the integration of spatial data into precise accident prediction models. By employing spatial analysis, road safety planning can be enhanced, high-risk areas can be identified, interventions can be evaluated, and resources can be optimally allocated to facilitate effective road safety measures and decision-making, especially in settings with limited resources. Therefore, it is crucial to consider ML and spatial analysis techniques and advanced optimization algorithms to enhance traffic flow control, in road safety research and transport planning efforts.

Background Accurate prediction of traffic flow is an integral component in most of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications. The data driven approach using Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models reported in most studies demands sound database for model building. Hence, the applicability of these models remains a question in places where the data availability could be an issue. The present study tries to overcome the above issue by proposing a prediction scheme using Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model for short term prediction of traffic flow using only limited input data. Method A 3-lane arterial roadway in Chennai, India was selected as the study stretch and limited flow data from only three consecutive days was used for the model development using SARIMA. After necessary differencing to make the input time series a stationary one, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were plotted to identify the suitable order of the SARIMA model. The model parameters were found using maximum likelihood method in R. The developed model was validated by performing 24 hrs. ahead forecast and the predicted flows were compared with the actual flow values. A comparison of the proposed model with historic average and naive method was also attempted. The effect of increase in sample size of input data on prediction results was studied. Short term prediction of traffic flow during morning and evening peak periods was also attempted using both historic and real time data. Concluding remarks The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between actual and predicted flow was found to be in the range of 4–10, which is acceptable in most of the ITS applications. The prediction scheme proposed in this study for traffic flow prediction could be considered in situations where database is a major constraint during model development using ARIMA.

The traffic flow prediction is becoming increasingly crucial in Intelligent Transportation Systems. Accurate prediction result is the precondition of traffic guidance, management, and control. To improve the prediction accuracy, a spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction method is proposed combined with k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM), which is called KNN-LSTM model in this paper. KNN is used to select mostly related neighboring stations with the test station and capture spatial features of traffic flow. LSTM is utilized to mine temporal variability of traffic flow, and a two-layer LSTM network is applied to predict traffic flow respectively in selected stations. The final prediction results are obtained by result-level fusion with rank-exponent weighting method. The prediction performance is evaluated with real-time traffic flow data provided by the Transportation Research Data Lab (TDRL) at the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) Data Center. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model can achieve a better performance compared with well-known prediction models including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), wavelet neural network (WNN), deep belief networks combined with support vector regression (DBN-SVR), and LSTM models, and the proposed model can achieve on average 12.59% accuracy improvement.

Transportation network companies (TNC) provide mobility services that are influencing travel behavior in unknown ways due to limited TNC trip-level data. How they interact with other modes of transportation can have direct societal impacts, prompting appropriate policy intervention. This paper outlines a method to inform such policies through a data-driven approach that specifically analyzes the interaction between TNCs and bus services in Pittsburgh, PA. Uber surge multiplier data is used over a 6-month time period to approximate TNC usage (i.e., demand over supply ratio) for ten predefined points of interest throughout the city. Bus boarding data near each point of interest is used to relate TNC usage. Data from multiple sources (weather, traffic speed data, bus levels of service) are used to control for conditions that influence bus ridership. We find significant changes in bus boardings during periods of unusually high TNC usage at four locations during the evening hours. The remaining six locations observe no significant change in bus boardings. We find that the presence of a dedicated bus way transit station or a nearby university (or dense commercial zones in general) both influence ad-hoc substitutional behavior between TNCs and public transit. We also find that this behavior varies by location and time of day. This finding is significant and important for targeted policies that improve transportation network efficiency.

In this paper, we explore different methods to detect patterns in the activity of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems focusing on two aspects of transit: infrastructure and the movement of vehicles. To this end, we analyze records of velocity and position of each active vehicle in nine BRT systems located in the Americas. We detect collective patterns that characterize each BRT system obtained from the statistical analysis of velocities in the entire system (global scale) and at specific zones (local scale). We analyze the velocity records at the local scale applying the Kullback-Leibler divergence to compare the vehicular activity between zones. This information is organized in a similarity matrix that can be represented as a network of zones. The resulting structure for each system is analyzed using network science methods. In particular, by implementing community detection algorithms on networks, we obtain different groups of zones characterized by similarities in the movement of vehicles. Our findings show that the representation of the dataset with information of vehicles as a network is a useful tool to characterize at different scales the activity of BRT systems when geolocalized records of vehicular movement are available. This general approach can be implemented in the analysis of other public transportation systems.

The first commercial fleets of Robo-Taxis will be on the road soon. Today important efforts are made to anticipate future Robo-Taxi services. Fleet size is one of the key parameters considered in the planning phase of service design and configuration. Based on multi-agent approaches, the fleet size can be explored using dynamic demand response simulations. Time and cost are the most common variables considered in such simulation approaches. However, personal taste variation can affect the demand and consequently the required fleet size. In this paper, we explore the impact of user trust and willingness-to-use on the Robo-Taxi fleet size. This research is based upon simulating the transportation system of the Rouen-Normandie metropolitan area in France using MATSim, a multi-agent activity-based simulator. A local survey is made in order to explore the variation of user trust and their willingness-to-use future Robo-Taxis according to the sociodemographic attributes. Integrating survey data in the model shows the significant importance of traveler trust and willingness-to-use varying the Robo-Taxi use and the required fleet size.

Short-term traffic speed prediction is a promising research topic in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which also plays an important role in the real-time decision-making of traffic control and guidance systems. However, the urban traffic speed has strong temporal, spatial correlation and the characteristic of complex nonlinearity and randomness, which makes it challenging to accurately and efficiently forecast short-term traffic speeds. We investigate the relevant literature and found that although most methods can achieve good prediction performance with the complete sample data, when there is a certain missing rate in the database, it is difficult to maintain accuracy with these methods. Recent studies have shown that deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) models, have good results in short-term traffic flow prediction. Furthermore, the attention mechanism can properly assign weights to distinguish the importance of traffic time sequences, thereby further improving the computational efficiency of the prediction model. Therefore, we propose a framework for short-term traffic speed prediction, including data preprocessing module and short-term traffic prediction module. In the data preprocessing module, the missing traffic data are repaired to provide a complete dataset for subsequent prediction. In the prediction module, a combined deep learning method that is an attention-based LSTM (ATT-LSTM) model for predicting short-term traffic speed on urban roads is proposed. The proposed framework was applied to the urban road network in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China, with a 30-day traffic speed dataset (floating car data) used as the experimental sample. Results show that the proposed method outperforms other deep learning algorithms (such as recurrent neural network (RNN) and convolutional neural network (CNN)) in terms of both calculating efficiency and prediction accuracy. The attention mechanism can significantly reduce the error of the LSTM model (up to 12.4%) and improves the prediction performance.

Rear-end collision crash is one of the most common accidents on the road. Accurate driving style recognition considering rear-end collision risk is crucial to design useful driver assistance systems and vehicle control systems. The purpose of this study is to develop a driving style recognition method based on vehicle trajectory data extracted from the surveillance video. First, three rear-end collision surrogates, Inversed Time to Collision (ITTC), Time-Headway (THW), and Modified Margin to Collision (MMTC), are selected to evaluate the collision risk level of vehicle trajectory for each driver. The driving style of each driver in training data is labelled based on their collision risk level using K-mean algorithm. Then, the driving style recognition model’s inputs are extracted from vehicle trajectory features, including acceleration, relative speed, and relative distance, using Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and statistical method to facilitate the driving style recognition. Finally, Supporting Vector Machine (SVM) is applied to recognize driving style based on the labelled data. The performance of Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) is also compared with SVM. The results show that SVM overperforms others with 91.7% accuracy with DWT feature extraction method.