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Twins, full siblings, and half-siblings are increasingly used as comparison groups in matched cohort and matched case-control studies. The “within-pair” estimates acquired through these comparisons are free from confounding from all factors that are shared by the siblings. This has made sibling comparisons popular in studying associations thought likely to suffer confounding from socioeconomic or genetic factors. Despite the wide application of these designs in epidemiology, they have received little scrutiny from a statistical or methodological standpoint. In this paper we show, analytically and through a series of simulations, that the standard interpretation of the models is subject to several limitations that are rarely acknowledged.Although within-pair estimates will not be confounded by factors shared by the siblings, such estimates are more severely biased by non-shared confounders than the unpaired estimate. If siblings are less similar with regard to confounders than to the exposure under study, the within-pair estimate will always be more biased than the ordinary unpaired estimate. Attenuation of associations due to random measurement error in exposure will also be higher in the within-pair estimate, leading within-pair associations to be weaker than corresponding unpaired associations, even in the absence of confounding. Implications for the interpretation of sibling comparison results are discussed.

For many multivariate twin models, the numerical Type I error rates are lower than theoretically expected rates using a likelihood ratio test (LRT), which implies that the significance threshold for statistical hypothesis tests is more conservative than most twin researchers realize. This makes the numerical Type II error rates higher than theoretically expected. Furthermore, the discrepancy between the observed and expected error rates increases as more variables are included in the analysis and can have profound implications for hypothesis testing and statistical inference. In two simulation studies, we examine the Type I error rates for the Cholesky decomposition and Correlated Factors models. Both show markedly lower than nominal Type I error rates under the null hypothesis, a discrepancy that increases with the number of variables in the model. In addition, we observe slightly biased parameter estimates for the Cholesky decomposition and Correlated Factors models. By contrast, if the variance–covariance matrices for variance components are estimated directly (without constraints), the numerical Type I error rates are consistent with theoretical expectations and there is no bias in the parameter estimates regardless of the number of variables analyzed. We call this the direct symmetric approach. It appears that each model-implied boundary, whether explicit or implicit, increases the discrepancy between the numerical and theoretical Type I error rates by truncating the sampling distributions of the variance components and inducing bias in the parameters. The direct symmetric approach has several advantages over other multivariate twin models as it corrects the Type I error rate and parameter bias issues, is easy to implement in current software, and has fewer optimization problems. Implications for past and future research, and potential limitations associated with direct estimation of genetic and environmental covariance matrices are discussed.

‘Healthy Twin’ is a twin family study extension of the existing Korean Twin-Family Register. Healthy Twin recruits adult like-sex twins over the age of 30 and their adult family members. Healthy Twin protocols are primarily tailored to the study of the quantitative trait loci of complex traits as well as to the role of environment in the etiology of complex diseases. A full-length survey is underway, including questionnaires, health examinations and the collection of biological specimens. So far, 820 individuals (169 twin pairs and their families) have participated in the survey and 1068 individual twins (608 twin pairs) have replied to the mailed zygosity questionnaire as of July 2006. The first phase (2005–2006) of Healthy Twin will recruit 1550 individuals (including about 380 twin pairs), and the second phase a proposed 1500 to 2500 additional participants. We report study protocols and zygosity and the distribution of family size of the study participants.

Dr Nick Martin has made enormous contributions to the field of behavior genetics over the past 50 years. Of his many seminal papers that have had a profound impact, we focus on his early work on the power of twin studies. He was among the first to recognize the importance of sample size calculation before conducting a study to ensure sufficient power to detect the effects of interest. The elegant approach he developed, based on the noncentral chi-squared distribution, has been adopted by subsequent researchers for other genetic study designs, and today remains a standard tool for power calculations in structural equation modeling and other areas of statistical analysis. The present brief article discusses the main aspects of his seminal paper, and how it led to subsequent developments, by him and others, as the field of behavior genetics evolved into the present era.

The extended twin model is a unique design in the genetic epidemiology toolbox that allows to simultaneously estimate multiple causes of variation such as genetic and cultural transmission, genotype–environment covariance and assortative mating, among others. Nick Martin has played a key role in the conception of the model, the collection of substantially large data sets to test the model, the application of the model to a range of phenotypes, the publication of the results including cross-cultural comparisons, the evaluation of bias and power of the design and the further elaborations of the model, such as the children-of-twins design.

This article describes Dr Nathan Gillespie’s PhD training and supervision under Professor Nick Martin and their ongoing collaborations. Drs Gillespie and Martin have collaborated on numerous biometrical genetic analyses applied to cross-sectional and longitudinal twin data, combined molecular and phenotypic modeling, as well as genomewide meta-analyses of psychoactive substance use and misuse. Dr Gillespie remains an active collaborator with Professor Martin, including ongoing data collection, analysis and publications related to the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study.

[...]there were many common variants with relatively weak effects on height that had been missed by GWAS due to a lack of statistical power. The methodology assumes that effect sizes are normally distributed within each bin, where the variants have been divided into bins based upon their frequency and the strength of their correlations with other variants (LD). Since GREML makes inferences about the distribution of effect sizes, GREML heritability estimates can become biased when assumptions about the distribution of effect sizes are violated [17]. Family data is required to adjust for indirect genetic effects from relatives. [...]solving the problem of missing heritability for traits like educational attainment will require large samples of families with WGS data. While the correlation between the polygenic score and educational attainment suggests that it can predict around 11–13% of the variation in educational attainment, within-family analyses suggest that at least half of this predictive ability comes from indirect genetic effects from relatives, population stratification, and assortative mating [35, 39].

The predictive utility of polygenic scores is increasing, and many polygenic scoring methods are available, but it is unclear which method performs best. This study evaluates the predictive utility of polygenic scoring methods within a reference-standardized framework, which uses a common set of variants and reference-based estimates of linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies to construct scores. Eight polygenic score methods were tested: p-value thresholding and clumping (pT+clump), SBLUP, lassosum, LDpred1, LDpred2, PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR, evaluating their performance to predict outcomes in UK Biobank and the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS). Strategies to identify optimal p-value thresholds and shrinkage parameters were compared, including 10-fold cross validation, pseudovalidation and infinitesimal models (with no validation sample), and multi-polygenic score elastic net models. LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs performed strongly using 10-fold cross-validation to identify the most predictive p-value threshold or shrinkage parameter, giving a relative improvement of 16–18% over pT+clump in the correlation between observed and predicted outcome values. Using pseudovalidation, the best methods were PRScs, DBSLMM and SBayesR. PRScs pseudovalidation was only 3% worse than the best polygenic score identified by 10-fold cross validation. Elastic net models containing polygenic scores based on a range of parameters consistently improved prediction over any single polygenic score. Within a reference-standardized framework, the best polygenic prediction was achieved using LDpred2, lassosum and PRScs, modeling multiple polygenic scores derived using multiple parameters. This study will help researchers performing polygenic score studies to select the most powerful and predictive analysis methods.

Research into the causes of psychopathology has largely focused on two broad etiologic factors: genetic vulnerability and environmental stressors. An important role for familial/heritable factors in the etiology of a broad range of psychiatric disorders was established well before the modern era of genomic research. This review focuses on the genetic basis of three disorder categories-posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and the anxiety disorders-for which environmental stressors and stress responses are understood to be central to pathogenesis. Each of these disorders aggregates in families and is moderately heritable. More recently, molecular genetic approaches, including genome-wide studies of genetic variation, have been applied to identify specific risk variants. In this review, I summarize evidence for genetic contributions to PTSD, MDD, and the anxiety disorders including genetic epidemiology, the role of common genetic variation, the role of rare and structural variation, and the role of gene-environment interaction. Available data suggest that stress-related disorders are highly complex and polygenic and, despite substantial progress in other areas of psychiatric genetics, few risk loci have been identified for these disorders. Progress in this area will likely require analysis of much larger sample sizes than have been reported to date. The phenotypic complexity and genetic overlap among these disorders present further challenges. The review concludes with a discussion of prospects for clinical translation of genetic findings and future directions for research.

Autism spectrum disorder (autism) is a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental conditions characterized by early childhood-onset impairments in communication and social interaction alongside restricted and repetitive behaviors and interests. This review summarizes recent developments in human genetics research in autism, complemented by epigenetic and transcriptomic findings. The clinical heterogeneity of autism is mirrored by a complex genetic architecture involving several types of common and rare variants, ranging from point mutations to large copy number variants, and either inherited or spontaneous (de novo). More than 100 risk genes have been implicated by rare, often de novo, potentially damaging mutations in highly constrained genes. These account for substantial individual risk but a small proportion of the population risk. In contrast, most of the genetic risk is attributable to common inherited variants acting en masse, each individually with small effects. Studies have identified a handful of robustly associated common variants. Different risk genes converge on the same mechanisms, such as gene regulation and synaptic connectivity. These mechanisms are also implicated by genes that are epigenetically and transcriptionally dysregulated in autism. Major challenges to understanding the biological mechanisms include substantial phenotypic heterogeneity, large locus heterogeneity, variable penetrance, and widespread pleiotropy. Considerable increases in sample sizes are needed to better understand the hundreds or thousands of common and rare genetic variants involved. Future research should integrate common and rare variant research, multi-omics data including genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics, and refined phenotype assessment with multidimensional and longitudinal measures.