Explore the vast range of titles available.

Concurrent extreme events, i.e. multi-variate extremes, can be associated with strong impacts. Hence, an understanding of how such events are changing in a warming climate is helpful to avoid some associated climate change impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we analyse the projected occurrence of hot, dry, and wet extreme events' clusters in the multi-model ensemble of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Changes in 'extreme extremes', i.e. events with only 1% probability of occurrence in the current climate are analysed, first as univariate extremes, and then when co-occurring with other types of extremes (i.e. events clusters) within the same week, month or year. The projections are analysed for present-day climate (+1 °C) and different levels of additional global warming (+1.5 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C). The results reveal substantial risk of occurrence of extreme events' clusters of different types across the globe at higher global warming levels. Hotspot regions for hot and dry clusters are mainly found in Brazil, i.e. in the Northeast and the Amazon rain forest, the Mediterranean region, and Southern Africa. Hotspot regions for wet and hot clusters are found in tropical Africa but also in the Sahel region, Indonesia, and in mountainous regions such as the Andes and the Himalaya.

Extreme events such as Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) and Low Chlorophyll-a (LChl-a) in the ocean have devastating impacts on the marine environment, particularly when they occur simultaneously (i.e., the compound of MHWs and LChl-a events). In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability of MHWs and LChl-a events in the Arabian and Omani Gulf. For this purpose, we used satellite-based high-resolution observations of SST (0.05° × 0.05°; from 1982 to 2020) and chlorophyll-a concentration data (0.04° × 0.04°; from 1998 to 2020). Hourly air temperature, wind, and heat flux components from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) were used to explain the link between these extreme events and atmospheric forcings. Moreover, our results revealed that the annual frequency of MHW and LChl-a is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results revealed an average SST warming trend of about 0.44 ± 0.06 °C/decade and 0.32 ± 0.04 °C/decade for the Arabian Gulf (AG) and the Gulf of Oman (OG), respectively. This warming rate was accompanied by MHW frequency and duration trends of 0.97 events/decade and 2.3 days/decade, respectively, for the entire study region from 1982 to 2020. The highest annual MHW frequencies were recorded in 2010 (6 events) and 2020 (5 events) associated with LChl-a frequency values of 4 and 2, respectively. La Niña events in 1999, 2010, 2011, and 2020 were associated with higher frequencies of MHW and LChl-a. The positive phase of IOD coincides with high MHW frequency in 2018 and 2019. The longest compound MHW and LChl-a event with a duration of 42 days was recorded in 2020 at OG. This extreme compound event was associated with wind stress reduction. Our results provide initial insights into the spatiotemporal variability of the compound MHW and LChl-a events that occurred in the AG and OG.

Satellite-retrieved and model-based reanalysis precipitation products with high resolution have received increasing attention in recent decades. Their hydrological performance has been widely evaluated. However, whether they can be applied in characterizing the novel category of extreme events, such as compound moist heat-flood (CMHF) events, has not been fully investigated to date. The CMHF refers to the rapid transition from moist heat stress to devastating floods and has occurred increasingly frequently under the current warming climate. This study focuses on the applicability of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) and the fifth generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land) in simulating CMHF events over 120 catchments in China. Firstly, the precipitation accuracy of IMERG and ERA5-Land products is appraised for each catchment, using the gridded in situ meteorological dataset (CN05.1) as a baseline. Then, the ability of IMERG and ERA5-Land datasets in simulating the fraction, magnitude, and decade change of floods and CMHFs is comprehensively evaluated by forcing the XAJ and GR4J hydrological models. The results show that: (a) the IMERG and ERA5-Land perform similarly in terms of precipitation occurrences and intensity; (b) the IMERG yields discernably better performance than the ERA5-Land in streamflow simulation, with 71.7% and 50.8% of catchments showing the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) higher than 0.5, respectively; (c) both datasets can roughly capture the frequency, magnitude, and their changes of floods and CMHFs in recent decades, with the IMERG exhibiting more satisfactory accuracy. Our results indicate that satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis precipitation can not only simulate individual hydrological extremes in most regions, but monitor compound events such as CMHF episodes, and especially, the IMERG satellite can yield better performance than the ERA5-Land reanalysis.

In the context of global climate warming, the frequencies of extreme climate events and compound extreme events in the Yangtze River Basin have increased. To comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of different types of compound extreme events in the Yangtze River Basin, this study utilized daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2022. Different threshold-based heatwave indicators, a drought indicator based on 90-day water accumulation, and an improved flood indicator were established. On this basis, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of compound heatwave-drought events, compound heatwave-waterlogging events, and regional compound extreme climate events in the upper, middle and lower reaches, and the entire Yangtze River Basin were identified. The results show that the heatwave events identified by relative thresholds occur more frequently in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, while heatwaves, droughts and floods identified by absolute thresholds occur more frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The occurrence area of compound high-temperature drought and high-temperature waterlogging events has expanded at a maximum rate of 2.34 and 2.68% per decade, while the total annual duration has decreased at a maximum rate of -0.06 and − 0.42 days per decade. Furthermore, the occurrence areas of upstream drought and downstream waterlogging events have decreased at rates of -1.5% and − 0.2% per decade respectively, and the number of co-occurrence days has decreased at a rate of -0.2 days per decade. Meanwhile, the occurrence areas of upstream drought and downstream high-temperature events have both increased at a rate of 0.1% per decade, and the number of co-occurrence days has also increased at a rate of 0.2 days per decade. These results provide a scientific basis for water and power resource management and for addressing extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin.

Compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) events threaten ecosystem productivity and are often characterized by low soil moisture (SM) and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD). However, the relative roles of SM and VPD in constraining forest productivity during CDHWs remain controversial. In the summer of 2022, China experienced a record‐breaking CDHW event (DH2022). Here, we applied satellite remote‐sensing data and meteorological data, and machine‐learning techniques to quantify the individual contributions of SM and VPD to forest productivity variations and investigate their interactions during the development of DH2022. The results reveal that SM, rather than VPD, dominates the forest productivity decline during DH2022. We identified a possible critical tipping point of SM below which forest productivity would quickly decline with the decreasing SM. Furthermore, we illuminated the evolution of SM, VPD, evapotranspiration, forest productivity, and their interactions throughout DH2022. Our findings broaden the understanding of forest response to extreme CDHWs at the ecosystem scale. Plain Language Summary Low soil moisture (SM) and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) are widely recognized as the dominant drivers of forest productivity decline during compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) events. In the summer of 2022, a record‐breaking CDHW (DH2022) struck China. In this study, we decoupled the respective impacts of SM and VPD in determining forest productivity decline during DH2022. We found that during DH2022, SM, rather than VPD, is the dominant driver of forest productivity decline, and once SM decreases below a certain threshold, forest productivity would decline sharply. We illuminated the evolution of SM, VPD, evapotranspiration, forest productivity, and their interactions throughout DH2022. Our findings promote the understanding of forest response to extreme CDHWs at the ecosystem scale and thus potentially improve terrestrial ecosystem models' ability to evaluate and predict the impacts of CDHWs. Key Points Soil moisture (SM), rather than vapor pressure deficit, dominates the forest productivity decline in the 2022 China compound drought‐heatwave event Forest productivity would decline sharply once SM drops below a certain threshold during extreme compound drought‐heatwave events Evolution of the 2022 China compound drought‐heatwave event and its impacts on forests were illuminated

The year 2020 had the most catastrophic fire season over the last two decades in the Pantanal, which led to outstanding environmental impacts. Indeed, much of the Pantanal has been affected by severe dry conditions since 2019, with evidence of the 2020’s drought being the most extreme and widespread ever recorded in the last 70 years. Although it is unquestionable that this mega-drought contributed significantly to the increase of fire risk, so far, the 2020’s fire season has been analyzed at the univariate level of a single climate event, not considering the co-occurrence of extreme and persistent temperatures with soil dryness conditions. Here, we show that similarly to other areas of the globe, the influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks contributed decisively to the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot spells (HPs), exacerbating fire risk. The ideal synoptic conditions for strong atmospheric heating and large evaporation rates were present, in particular during the HPs, when the maximum temperature was, on average, 6 °C above the normal. The short span of the period during those compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events accounted for 55% of the burned area of 2020. The vulnerability in the northern forested areas was higher than in the other areas, revealing a synergistic effect between fuel availability and weather-hydrological conditions. Accordingly, where fuel is not a limiting factor, fire activity tends to be more modelled by CDHW events. Our work advances beyond an isolated event-level basis towards a compound and cascading natural hazards approach, simultaneously estimating the contribution of drought and heatwaves to fuelling extreme fire outbreaks in the Pantanal such as those in 2020. Thus, these findings are relevant within a broader context, as the driving mechanisms apply across other ecosystems, implying higher flammability conditions and further efforts for monitoring and predicting such extreme events.

The impacts of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are significant for societies, economies, and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes over global land regions using 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and four future emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. Hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are projected to increase over large parts of the globe by the end of the 21st century. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases and dry extreme changes are sensitive to the index used. Many regional changes depend on the strength of greenhouse‐gas forcing, which highlights the potential to limit the changes with strong mitigation efforts. Plain Language Summary Heatwaves, drought and their joint occurrences can negatively impact populations, economies, and natural systems worldwide. It is therefore of paramount importance that governments and stakeholders assess the risk from such events and adapt accordingly. In this study we use 25 climate models and four emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100 to assess how hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are expected to change in the future when compared to current climate conditions. We find that such extremes are projected to increase by the end of the 21st century over large parts of global land areas under the highest‐emission, no‐policy, climate change scenario. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases, whereas dry extreme changes are sensitive and more regionally limited depending on the method by which they are computed. Most of the regional changes in hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes can be reduced with strong climate change mitigation efforts to limit future green‐house gas emissions. Key Points Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over almost all land areas by the end of the 21st century Drought changes depend on measure but increase robustly over central and northern South America, the Mediterranean, and southern Africa Compound hot and dry extremes are sensitive to the drought measure but projected to increase in most regions globally

The abrupt alternation between hot and wet extremes can lead to more severe societal impacts than isolated extremes. However, despite an understanding of hot and wet extremes separately, their temporally compounding characteristics are not well examined yet. Our study presents a comprehensive assessment of successive heat‐pluvial and pluvial‐heat events globally. We find that these successive extremes within a week occur every 6–7 years on average within warm seasons during 1956–2015, about 15% more often than would be expected by chance, and that they have a significant increase in frequency of about 22% per decade due to warming. We further investigate the role of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and find that heat‐pluvial (pluvial‐heat) events are linked to negative (positive) VPD anomalies. Our results are statistically significant based on moving‐blocks bootstrap resampling and field significance tests, highlighting these methods' importance in robustly identifying compound events under autocorrelation and multiple‐testing conditions. Plain Language Summary In recent years, the world has experienced various clustered weather and climate extremes, which are highly disruptive to humans and society. However, current knowledge on the risk of successive occurrence of hot (humid heat, including the effects of both temperature and humidity) and wet (pluvial flooding, usually caused by extreme rainfall) extremes remains unclear. In this study, we present a comprehensive assessment of the two types of interacting hot and wet extremes: humid heat extremes followed by pluvial flooding (heat‐pluvial) and extreme pluvials followed by humid heat (pluvial‐heat). We find that these events have increased significantly in most regions of the world for the last three decades, which can be associated with the warming effect. Importantly, we identify that the vapor pressure deficit plays an important but varying role in the abrupt alternation between heat and pluvial events. We emphasize the importance of using reliable statistical tests to ensure the validity of the results for complex compound events. Our analysis highlights the need for policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies to cope with overlapping vulnerabilities due to compound hot and wet extremes, especially in areas prone to both such as West Australia, South America and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Key Points Temporally compounding heat and pluvial events occur about 15% more often than would be expected by chance Increases in hot‐wet compound events have largely been linked to warming Vapor‐pressure‐deficit anomalies are a signature of heat‐pluvial versus pluvial‐heat sequences, a conclusion drawn from field significance tests

An increase in the frequency of extremely hot and dry events has been experienced over the past few decades in South America, and particularly in Brazil. Regional climate change projections indicate a future aggravation of this trend. However, a comprehensive characterization of drought and heatwave compound events, as well as of the main land–atmosphere mechanisms involved, is still lacking for most of South America. This study aims to fill this gap, assessing for the first time the historical evolution of compound summer drought and heatwave events for the heavily populated region of Southeast Brazil and for the period of 1980–2018. The main goal is to undertake a detailed analysis of the surface and synoptic conditions, as well as of the land–atmosphere coupling processes that led to the occurrence of individual and compound dry and hot extremes. Our results confirm that the São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states have recorded pronounced and statistically significant increases in the number of compound summer drought and heatwave episodes. In particular, the last decade was characterized by two austral summer seasons (2013/14 and 2014/15) with outstanding concurrent drought and heatwave conditions stemmed by severe precipitation deficits and a higher-than-average occurrence of blocking patterns. As result of these land and atmosphere conditions, a high coupling (water-limited) regime was imposed, promoting the re-amplification of hot spells that resulted in mega heatwave episodes. Our findings reveal a substantial contribution of persistent dry conditions to heatwave episodes, highlighting the vulnerability of the region to climate change.

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have received considerable attention in recent years due to their devastating effects on human society and ecosystem. In this study, we systematically investigated the changes of CDHW events in multi‐spatiotemporal scales for historical period (1951–2014) and four future scenarios (2020–2100) (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) over global land by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The responses of the CDHW events to the changes of maximum air temperature and the climatic water balance variable are also examined. The results show that the multi‐model ensembles project a significant increasing trend in CDHW characteristics over almost all global lands under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, especially across northern North‐America, Caribbean, Mediterranean and Russian‐Arctic, there is a stronger increasing trend. A significantly increasing CDHW risk will occur across most global land for the medium to long term future without aggressive adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results of path analysis suggest that temperature is the dominant factor influencing CDHW events. Additionally, higher sensitivity of CDHW events to global warming will occur in the future. Particularly, each 1°C global warming increases the duration of the CDHW events by 3 days in the historical period, but by about 10 days in the future period. Overall, this study improves our understanding in the projection of CDHW events and the impacts of climate drivers to the CDHW events under various future scenarios, which could provide supports about the risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation strategies under climate change. Plain Language Summary Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events (co‐occurring hot and dry extremes) always cause severe damages to human society and natural system, often beyond separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Understanding the changes of CDHW events under global warming can help to manage the risks of associated disasters and advance climate change adaptation. Therefore, we systematically investigated the future changes of CDHW events (characterized by duration, severity, and magnitude) and the relationship between CDHW characteristics and the relevant climate factors in multi‐spatiotemporal scales using the state‐of‐the‐art climate simulations. Here we show that future will witness a strong increase in CDHW events. A significantly increasing CDHW risk will occur across most global land for the medium to long term future without aggressive adaptation and mitigation strategies. We further find global temperature rise is the main reason for the future increase in CDHW events. In addition, compared with the historical period, higher sensitivity of CDHW events to global warming over most global land will occur in the future. These tell us that measures to limit the temperature increase are urgently needed to survive and thrive. Key Points There is a significantly increasing trend for compound drought and heatwave characteristics over almost global land in the future The increasing temperature dominates the increase of compound drought and heatwave events Future will witness higher sensitivity of compound drought and heatwave events to global warming over almost all global land