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Expert political judgment : how good is it ? How can we know ?
\"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.\" \"Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting.\"--Jacket.
How Do Employees React When Their CEO Speaks Out? Intra- and Extra-Firm Implications of CEO Sociopolitical Activism
Business leaders have traditionally avoided wading into society’s debates. Yet more and more CEOs are taking visible public stands on hotly contested issues, engaging in what has come to be called CEO sociopolitical activism. Despite its growing prevalence and potentially major implications, this class of executive behaviors remains largely unexplored by organizational scholars. Our study tests and elaborates on stakeholder alignment theory to investigate the influence of CEO activism on employees’attitudes and behaviors, particularly its effects on employees’ organizational commitment and support for the ideology underpinning the CEO’s public stance. Our theoretical predictions hinge on the degree of alignment between the CEO’s stance and the prevailing ideological tilt of the employee population, as well as the degree to which employees view the CEO as a credible leader. We test our ideas in the context of a highly publicized letter signed by nearly 100 public company CEOs in opposition to North Carolina’s controversial 2016 “bathroom bill.” Relying on multiple data sources to examine differences between firms whose CEOs signed the letter and firms whose CEOs declined the invitation to sign, we find general support for our theory, indicating that CEO activism has important intra-and extra-firm implications.
Journal Article
Ideology, rhetoric, aesthetics : for De Man
\"This volume explicates Paul de Man's late project of a critique of aesthetic ideology and attempts to extend it in ways productive for critical thought. After a reading of de Man's work in all its rigour - and hence also the aesthetic theory of Kant, Schiller, and Hegel- the book goes on to uncover a 'material moment' in Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit that lives on in Marx and in the Marxist tradition. The book also elucidates de Man's critical reading of Heidegger on the example of Hölderlin--a moment essential for de Man's shifts to the question of rhetoric and then to the question of ideology--and ends with a reading of Derrida's 'last' text on de Man and its uncanny self-inscription in Rousseau's episode of the stolen ribbon. Key Features: Rigorous explications of Paul de Man's late work on aesthetic ideology and the political ; New readings of Kant, Schiller, and Hegel that extend de Man's project ; Demonstrates how a certain already 'Marxian' self-undoing of Hegelian dialectics leaves traces in Kojève and in Marxists like Lukács and Jameson ; Presents accounts of disagreements and altercations between de Man and Heidegger and de Man and Derrida.\"--Publisher's website.
Book
The Paranoid Style in American Politics Revisited: An Ideological Asymmetry in Conspiratorial Thinking
It is often claimed that conspiracy theories are endorsed with the same level of intensity across the left-right ideological spectrum. But do liberals and conservatives in the United States embrace conspiratorial thinking to an equivalent degree? There are important historical, philosophical, and scientific reasons dating back to Richard Hofstadter's book The Paranoid Style in American Politics to doubt this claim. In four large studies of U.S. adults (total N = 5049)—including national samples—we investigated the relationship between political ideology, measured in both symbolic and operational terms, and conspiratorial thinking in general. Results reveal that conservatives in the United States were not only more likely than liberals to endorse specific conspiracy theories, but they were also more likely to espouse conspiratorial worldviews in general (r = .27, 95% CI: .24, .30). Importantly, extreme conservatives were significantly more likely to engage in conspiratorial thinking than extreme liberals (Hedges' g = .77, SE = .07, p < .001). The relationship between ideology and conspiratorial thinking was mediated by a strong distrust of officialdom and paranoid ideation, both of which were higher among conservatives, consistent with Hofstadter's account of the paranoid style in American politics.
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Political ideologies : their origins and impact
\"Comprehensive yet accessible, this classic text, now in its thirteenth edition follows the evolution of political thought over 300 years. Organized chronologically, this text examines each ideology within a political, historical, economic, and social context. In addition to a thorough updating of examples and data, here's what you'll find in the new edition: Analyses of President Trump's rollback of Obamacare, trade war with China, and changes to immigration, taxation and environmental policy. Conservative justifications for supply-side economics and liberal rationale for drug legalization and \"trigger-word\" bans. Brexit's effects on the Scottish independence movement. Resurgence of feminist protest, including the MeToo movement, alongside anarchist protest, following Trump's election, including groups like Black Bloc and Antifa. China's rising environmental and social problems, including unrest among its heavily controlled Uighur population. Cuba's transfer of power from the Castros to President Dâiaz-Canel, and their fraught rapprochement with the U.S. Russia's disinformation campaigns, and alternating brinksmanship and dâetente between Trump and North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong-un. The ascent of the Alt-right in the US, and white supremacist influence on parties in the U.S. and Europe. The continuing salience of Islamism, the teetering Iran deal, and ongoing degeneration of the Arab Spring to the Islamist Winter\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Deux romans au féminin: vers un nouveau modèle philosophique pour l'amour
Deux héroïnes, Laure dans L'un vers l'autre par Louise M. Compain et Josanne dans La rebelle par Marcelle Tinayre, méritent une analyse particulière. Elles exhibent un certain conservatisme qu'observent Diana Holmes et Mélanie Collado, renonçant à une carrière professionnelle pour rentrer au foyer. Dans cette étude, j'affirme la valeur féministe de ces textes en soutenant que les héroïnes créent un ménage plus égalitaire. Je propose aussi une mise en lumière du nouveau modèle que représentent les deux romans. C'est un modèle qui privilégie un amour réciproque et l'autonomie de l'amant.
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Waking from Mao’s Dream
We theorize how an ideological imprint—ideology formed through past events—serves as an information filter that persistently affects individuals’ decision making and how subsequent behaviors of the imprinter—the entity that established the imprint—may alter it. We test our model with a longitudinal dataset of Chinese private entrepreneurs from 1993 to 2012, investigating the influence of a founder’s communist ideological imprint, which characterizes foreign capitalism as evil, and subsequent dynamics introduced by the imprinter—the Communist Party–led government of China—on two internationalization strategies that deal with foreign investors and markets: firms’ efforts to attract foreign capital and to expand globally. Our findings show that Chinese entrepreneurs’ communist ideological imprint negatively affects the internationalization of their ventures, while available and credible information contradicting communism—coming from the government directly, government-created industry social networks for entrepreneurs, or observing governmental support of internationalization—weakens the influence of the imprint. Our study contributes to a better understanding of imprinting and its decay, the effects of corporate decision makers’ political ideology, and the internationalization of firms.
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