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result(s) for
"real options"
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CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: DIMENSIONS OF VULNERABILITY AND FOREIGN MULTINATIONALS' EXIT FROM WAR-AFFLICTED COUNTRIES
Research summary: When war occurs in a country, some foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) stay on, while others flee. We argue that MNE responses to external threats depend on the firm's vulnerability, which we decompose into exposure (proximity to threat), at-risk resources (potential for loss), and resilience (capacity for coping). We test the independent and interactive effects of these dimensions using a geo-referenced sample of 1,162 MNE subsidiaries in 20 war-afflicted countries between 1987 and 2006. We find that highly valuable resources can become liabilities when exposed to harm, and the best way to cope with external threats may be to exit. Our findings extend the resource-based view and real options theory by demonstrating the bounded value of resources and options in the face of environmental contingencies. Managerial summary: A recent survey of multinational enterprise (MNE) executives revealed that 30 percent of the respondents believed that their firms were exposed to collateral damage from war, with more than 90 percent expecting risks to rise. Yet, 25 percent of the executives indicated that their firms had no continuity plan. Our study of MNEs in war-afflicted countries highlights the costs of not having a response strategy in place. We find that, in war zones, otherwise highly valuable locations and resources can become sources of vulnerability that prompt early withdrawal from a host country. Our work further highlights the value of real options thinking—where structural solutions such as building redundancy into a portfolio of options may exist in advance of problems—for navigating hostile environments.
Journal Article
CEO career horizon, corporate governance, and real options: The role of economic short-termism
Research summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short-termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs' career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long-term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs' career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self-seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking-behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms' real options, which should lower the investments in the firms' real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long-term incentives and institutional investors.
Journal Article
Real options theory in international business
The last quarter century has witnessed substantial growth in applications of real options theory (ROT) to international business (IB) research. In this review, we explicate the core ROT concepts in the IB context and discuss the contributions of ROT-based research to three core IB issues: timing and scale of market entry or exit, entry mode and governance form, and the role of multinational networks. Based on our review, we propose a holistic ROT view of the multinational enterprise that synthesizes the insights of existing studies. Finally, to move the field forward, we highlight key questions and challenges in current ROT-based work, provide a more precise definition of exogenous and endogenous uncertainty, suggest empirical designs to test unique ROT predictions, and explore areas where ROT can be combined with other theoretical perspectives to better understand IB phenomena.
Journal Article
Resource relatedness, redeployability, and firm value
Our paper elaborates the effects of resource relatedness on value of a multibusiness firm. We emphasize that value results from interplay of benefits of synergy and redeploy ability. This view, considering how synergy and redeploy ability interact in determining value, extends prior separate considerations of the two benefits. We also diagnose that the value effect of resource relatedness is contingent on uncertainty and specify this contingent relationship. We use the real option valuation approach and formally evaluate the impacts of the two effects of relatedness. This explication enables us to demonstrate how redeployability contributes to value beyond synergy, and how they contribute in tandem. In this sense, we illuminate previously undiagnosed value in multibusiness firms. Beyond theoretical implications, our results have important empirical and managerial implications.
Journal Article
Terrorism-induced uncertainty and firm R&D investment: A real options view
How terrorism affects firms’ investment decisions is gaining increasing attention globally and represents a frontier topic in international business. Although extant research has shown that terrorism can reduce aggregate investment levels, little attention has been paid to the impact of terrorism on firms’ R&D in a global context. Drawing on real options theory, we argue that terrorism will lead firms to reduce their R&D investment because terrorism-induced uncertainty increases the value of the deferral option in R&D. However, strong national institutions, including strong patent rights protection and low expropriation hazards, will mitigate firms’ disincentive to invest in R&D stemming from uncertainty. Further, multinational firms, larger firms, as well as firms with greater cash flow will be less sensitive to uncertainty in their R&D decisions. Our hypotheses are supported by a battery of tests, including the use of a quasi-experiment, based on firm-level panel data from 48 countries.
Journal Article
Hybrid Entrepreneurship
In contrast to previous efforts to model an individual's movement from wage work into entrepreneurship, we consider that individuals might transition incrementally by retaining their wage job while entering into self-employment. We show that these hybrid entrepreneurs represent a significant share of all entrepreneurial activity. Theoretical arguments are proposed to suggest why hybrid entrants are distinct from self-employment entrants, and why hybrid entry may facilitate subsequent entry into full self-employment. We demonstrate that there are significant theoretical and empirical consequences for this group and our understanding of self-employment entry and labor market dynamics. Using matched employee-employer data over eight years, we test the model on a population of Swedish wage earners in the knowledge-intensive sector.
Journal Article
Strategic NPV
Research summary: Among the most difficult firm strategic choices is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of uncertainty. To operationalize strategic management theory under demand, technological and competitive uncertainty, we develop a Strategic Net Present Value (NPV) framework that integrates real options and game theory to quantify value components and interactions at the interface between NPV, real options, and strategic games. Our approach results in new propositions clarifying the way learning‐experience conditions, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between wait‐and‐see flexibility and strategic commitment. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of the conditions where NPV, real options, or strategic thinking are more relevant. Managerial summary: This study develops and elucidates implementation of a new valuation construct, “Strategic Net Present Value (NPV),” that integrates real options and game theory to more accurately portray strategic decisions underlying management theory. Among the most difficult firm strategic choices in capital intensive industries, such as energy, mining, chip manufacturing, and infrastructure development, is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of demand, technological, and competitive uncertainties. The study provides new insights on the way various conditions, such as learning‐experience effects, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information, interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between commitment and wait‐and‐see flexibility. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of when NPV, real options, or strategic thinking matter more critically for decision making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal Article
Construction, Real Uncertainty, and Stock-Level Investment Anomalies
We show that the negative relation between real investments and future stock returns is primarily driven by the subsample of firms building additional capacity. We develop a real options model to rationalize that evidence based on the premise that firms need to learn how to best operate modern capacity vintages, inducing idiosyncratic uncertainty in that capacity’s production costs over the learning period. Conversely, the uncertainty lowers the expected return of firms with newly built capacity until it is resolved. Further evidence based on profit sensitivities to aggregate conditions; analyst forecast-error volatilities; and high- versus low-tech industry subsamples supports our uncertainty explanation.
Journal Article
Assessment of investment decisions in bulk shipping through fuzzy real options analysis
The global shipping market has been depressed and turbulent since 2008. Shipping companies have had to be more cautious with their investments, so as to buck the trend and get through this difficult period. Traditional net present value methods cannot help enterprises make effective investment decisions. Therefore, we employ real options theory—including expansion options, contraction options, deferral options, and abandonment options—to simulate various types of operational adjustment strategies used by investors in the process of ship investment and operations. Triangular fuzzy numbers and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model are also introduced to describe the uncertainty and volatility of the shipping market. Subsequently, a fuzzy real options binomial tree pricing model is developed to assess the project value of ship investments. Based on the calculations and analysis of an actual ship investment case, the fuzzy real options method is shown to be more suitable for ship investment analysis, fitting more closely the actual market and operating situation.
Journal Article