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人口結構變遷對房價影響分析
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人口結構變遷對房價影響分析
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Journal Article
人口結構變遷對房價影響分析
2017
Overview
扶養比是人口結構改變的重要指標，可反映生產人口的經濟壓力，以往許多文獻探討扶養比對儲蓄與財富累積的影響，但對於人口結構改變對房地產市場的影響鮮少討論。在台灣生育率持續下降的同時，人口也逐漸的老化，人口結構失衡已經衍生為台灣的重要國安問題。在此同時住宅需求卻無止盡的增加，也推升了國內的房價，究竟這樣的房價上升是否與人口結構變化有關? 長期而言，房價是否反映少子化與人口老化的影響? 本文的實證結果顯示房價分別與生育率和扶老率有長期的整合關係，房價會隨著生育率和扶老率變化，生育率增加會帶動房價的上升，扶老率增加則會降低房價，故當前日益嚴重的少子化與人口老化趨勢，可能會對未來房價產生負面衝擊。
