Journal Article

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics

Lindley, S. T., Newman, K. B., Fernández, C., Thomas, L., Buckland, S. T.

2006

Overview

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).

• Publisher: Ecological Society of America
• Subject: Animals / Biodiversity / Computer Simulation / Data smoothing / Demography / Dynamic modeling / Ecological modeling / endangered species / Freshwater / Invited Feature: Contemporary Statistics and Ecology / kernel smoothing / Likelihood Functions / Markov chain / Markov Chains / Models, Biological / Monte Carlo Method / Monte Carlo methods / Oncorhynchus - growth & development / Oncorhynchus tshawytscha / Population Dynamics / probability distribution / Rivers - chemistry / Sacramento River / Salmon / sequential importance sampling / State vectors / state-space models / Time series / Young animals