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A standalone prediction model for atomic oxygen and coronal mass ejections
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A standalone prediction model for atomic oxygen and coronal mass ejections
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A standalone prediction model for atomic oxygen and coronal mass ejections
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Journal Article
A standalone prediction model for atomic oxygen and coronal mass ejections
2023
Overview
This paper presents a standalone predictive model for Atomic Oxygen (AO), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and other space-environment parameters. The prediction is based on the numerical method of Holt–Winter’s triple smooth exponential forecasting of atmospheric constituents. Solar cycle 25 is likely to show about the same activity as cycle 23. The corresponding AO-flux–solar-activity correlation coefficients for altitudes 100, 200, and 300 km are: 0.62, 0.53, and 0.48, respectively, while the correlation coefficients for higher altitudes are lower than 0.48, an advantage that makes them more favorable for LEOs due to the harmful corrosive effects.
