Journal Article

Refined Estimates of Global Ocean Deep and Abyssal Decadal Warming Trends

Johnson, Gregory C., Purkey, Sarah G.

2024

Overview

Deep and abyssal layer decadal temperature trends from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐2010s are mapped globally using Deep Argo and historical ship‐based Conductivity‐Temperature‐Depth (CTD) instrument data. Abyssal warming trends are widespread, with the strongest warming observed around Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation regions. The warming strength follows deep western boundary currents transporting abyssal waters north and decreases with distance from Antarctica. Abyssal cooling trends are found in the North Atlantic and eastern South Atlantic, regions primarily ventilated by North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Deep warming trends are prominent in the Southern Ocean south of about 50°S, the Greenland‐Iceland‐Norwegian (GIN) Seas and the western subpolar North Atlantic, with cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic and the subtropical and tropical western North Atlantic. Globally integrated decadal heat content trends of 21.6 (±6.5) TW in the deep and 12.9 (±1.8) TW in the abyssal layer are more certain than previous estimates. Plain Language Summary Even the deepest waters in the ocean, which sink to the abyss around Antarctica after being cooled and made saltier by heat exchange with the atmosphere and sea ice formation, have been shown to be warming around much of the globe in recent decades. The net warming rate below 2000‐m depth accounts for about 10% of total ocean heat uptake, but uncertainties in prior estimates have been about half the size of the signal owing to sparse sampling in the deep ocean. However, new observations from Deep Argo floats, capable of profiling to the ocean floor in most locations, have improved that situation in some regions. Here we analyze these new observations together with historical observations collected from ships since the 1970s to map decadal ocean temperature trends around the globe. As a result, we use more historical data than previous estimates. We refine the local patterns of warming and cooling in the waters deeper than 2,000 m. We confirm the amplitude of the net warming below 2,000 m estimated in previous studies, and extend the time covered by those estimates. The increased data coverage substantially reduces the uncertainty of the net warming estimate. Key Points Analysis of Deep Argo float and historical ship‐based CTD data reveal global patterns in deep and abyssal layer decadal temperature trends High resolution maps reveal spreading of abyssal warming from Antarctica and cooling from the North Atlantic on sub‐basin spatial scales Globally integrated decadal heat content trends are 21.6 (±6.5) TW in the deep and 12.9 (±1.8) TW in the abyssal layer

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Abrupt/rapid climate change / Abyssal zone / Antarctic bottom water / Arctic and Antarctic oceanography / Bottom water / Boundary currents / Cooling / decadal ocean variability / deep Argo / Deep water / Depth perception / Depth profiling / Drifters / Enthalpy / Estimates / Floats / Heat / Heat content / Heat exchange / Historic temperatures / Ice formation / Ocean floor / ocean heat uptake / ocean observing systems / Ocean temperature / Oceans / Sea currents / Sea ice / Sea ice formation / Temperature trends / Trends / Uncertainty / Western boundary currents