Journal Article

Application of Data Assimilation Methods to Reconstruct the 3–5 December 2015 Etna Eruption

Folch, A, Mari, N, Caruso, E, Tajè, D, Martínez Montesinos, B, Costa, A, Poret, M, Mingari, L

2026

Overview

The assessment of volcanic hazards is crucial to develop effective emergency plans, especially for volcanoes close to urban areas or under air traffic routes. Impact assessment for expected scenarios relies on underlying numerical models that require eruption source parameters as inputs, and forecasts drastically depend on their robust reconstruction during ongoing events. We apply a novel tephra deposit inversion workflow built on ensemble methods and data assimilation techniques to reconstruct the explosive events that occurred at Mt Etna, Italy, between 3 and 5 December 2015. Based on results from previous studies, we reconstruct this eruption using the Gaussian with Non‐negative Constraints data assimilation method. Results agree well with independent observations and highlight the potential for automatized procedures in volcanic hazard assessment.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Data assimilation / Data collection / Datasets / Emergency plans / Geological hazards / Hazard assessment / Impact assessment / Lava / Mathematical models / Numerical models / Satellites / Tephra / Urban areas / Volcanic activity / Volcanic eruption effects / Volcanic eruptions / Volcanoes