Journal Article

Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review

Land, Kenneth C.

1986

Overview

Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally.

• Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group,American Statistical Association
• Subject: Applications / Biological and medical sciences / Cohort Studies / Cohort-component method / Demographic projections / Demography / Economic forecasting models / Economic models / Forecasting / Forecasting models / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / Limits to forecast accuracy / Methods / Modeling / Models, Theoretical / Mortality / Population / Population Dynamics / Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry / Psychology. Psychophysiology / Psychometrics. Statistics. Methodology / Reproducibility of Results / Research Design / Statistical forecasts / Statistics as Topic / Statistics. Mathematics / Structural models / Time Factors / Time series forecasting / Time series models / Weather forecasting